ATL: HERMINE - Models

[RL3AO]

I do think people laugh off the HWRF a little too much. It's gotten pretty good. For example, here's the intensity error from 2015 between the GFS, Euro, HWRF, and NHC.

Thanks for sharing this. When you posted this I presumed that although the absolute error was relatively low, there would likely be a large positive bias, but this isn't the case either. Glad to see the hard work by the good people working on the HWRF is paying off.

Thats what I thought too, but it actually had a slightly negative bias.

[p1nheadlarry]

We now are getting pretty good consensus on the steering set-up. Still average errors at five days are 250 miles so anywhere from the FL straits to JAX need to pay attention. 06Z GFS now concurs with the European model track - just difference in intensity. Watch and wait time.

Intensity and the position of the continental high are what I'm following closely as someone north of Florida

[p1nheadlarry]

06z... Don't like the TVCN Consensus over me...

The popcorn convection and low level structure seem to be signaling that 99L isn't going to remain a harmless wave much longer..

And since with development we usually get a french curve poleward motion in the track the current model consensus north of the islands into the Bahamas is fairly likely to verify.

That final turn back west towards Florida will be hard to forecast given the ridge dynamics.

As for the intensity forecast that has not been thoroughly been addressed yet.
Anyone remember a weakening system that was trapped under a ridge parked over the southeastern ConUS?

Katrina!

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/768059169970806784

[northjaxpro]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/768059169970806784

WOW!! Just wow. That is very ominous.

[NDG]

I do think people laugh off the HWRF a little too much. It's gotten pretty good. For example, here's the intensity error from 2015 between the GFS, Euro, HWRF, and NHC.

Thanks for sharing this. When you posted this I presumed that although the absolute error was relatively low, there would likely be a large positive bias, but this isn't the case either. Glad to see the hard work by the good people working on the HWRF is paying off.

Thats what I thought too, but it actually had a slightly negative bias.

Yeah, the HWRF has gotten pretty good over the past couple of years, compared to the GFDL is light years ahead of it and does a better job with intensity forecast than the GFS, I keep mentioned Earl, it nailed its forecast of becoming a TS south of Jamaica when the GFS was forecasting it to become a TS but all the way west by the GOH.

[Hurricaneman]

I remember the GFS a few days ago had a tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles, and a hurricane for the Florida east coast, seems as though it was initially right but backed down

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[TheStormExpert]

Thanks for sharing this. When you posted this I presumed that although the absolute error was relatively low, there would likely be a large positive bias, but this isn't the case either. Glad to see the hard work by the good people working on the HWRF is paying off.

Thats what I thought too, but it actually had a slightly negative bias.

Yeah, the HWRF has gotten pretty good over the past couple of years, compared to the GFDL is light years ahead of it and does a better job with intensity forecast than the GFS, I keep mentioned Earl, it nailed its forecast of becoming a TS south of Jamaica when the GFS was forecasting it to become a TS but all the way west by the GOH.

But the HWRF also showed a hurricane on approach to the Lesser Antilles several days ago.

[NDG]

06z... Don't like the TVCN Consensus over me...

The popcorn convection and low level structure seem to be signaling that 99L isn't going to remain a harmless wave much longer..

And since with development we usually get a french curve poleward motion in the track the current model consensus north of the islands into the Bahamas is fairly likely to verify.

That final turn back west towards Florida will be hard to forecast given the ridge dynamics.

As for the intensity forecast that has not been thoroughly been addressed yet.
Anyone remember a weakening system that was trapped under a ridge parked over the southeastern ConUS?

Katrina!

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap ... 050825.gif

Sypnotic set up was a little different during Katrina, a short wave trough that had weakened the ridge along the east coast was supposed to pick up Katrina but it did not, building ridge from the Atlantic pushed Katrina westward towards S FL at the same time that a ridge over the southern plains bridged eastward towards the TN valley which made her track further westward into the central GOM. That was the biggest and costliest error done by models, ever

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/768062315094798336






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[NDG]

Thats what I thought too, but it actually had a slightly negative bias.

Yeah, the HWRF has gotten pretty good over the past couple of years, compared to the GFDL is light years ahead of it and does a better job with intensity forecast than the GFS, I keep mentioned Earl, it nailed its forecast of becoming a TS south of Jamaica when the GFS was forecasting it to become a TS but all the way west by the GOH.

But the HWRF also showed a hurricane on approach to the Lesser Antilles several days ago.

Yes, but I think that was bad data placed into the model when 99L was over the eastern Atlantic, the GFS was showing more mid level moisture for 99L to work with over the central Atlantic than what actually happened when the Euro picked up on the subsidence better.

[tolakram]

FYI,

I am deleting off topic posts. I will repost what I said earlier.

The idea of the model thread is a place to hold saved model graphics (no direct image links please) and discussions or questions pertaining directly to a model run. One liners, random thoughts, and other posts will be removed to try and keep these threads strictly on topic and more useful in the future when looking back at a storm and model performance. Please understand that the desire is not to squash conversation but to keep these threads very technical in nature. If you have doubts about a post then the discussion thread is probably the best place to put it.

Thanks for your cooperation.

[StormHunter72]

Models will be more accurate with recon data today in my opinion.

[RL3AO]

Models will be more accurate with recon data today in my opinion.

I'm not sure how accurate this is. Does HDOB data get ingested? Is it useful? This is a low level invest mission. They'll spend most of the flight at 1000 feet. This isn't a G-IV synoptic flight.

[StormHunter72]

Models will be more accurate with recon data today in my opinion.

I'm not sure how accurate this is. Does HDOB data get ingested? Is it useful? This is a low level invest mission. They'll spend most of the flight at 1000 feet. This isn't a G-IV synoptic flight.

Good point. They need a synoptic flight due to this situation?

[SoupBone]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/768062315094798336






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What is this suggesting? A more westerly track change in the next model run? Sometimes, I have a hard time understanding tweets because they are so abbreviated.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Model Guidance.





06z GEFS Ensembles.

[Kazmit]

This is starting to worry me once again. I would hate to see a Katrina/Andrew-type situation if this rapidly intensifies near the Bahamas.

[SouthFLTropics]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/768062315094798336






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What is this suggesting? A more westerly track change in the next model run? Sometimes, I have a hard time understanding tweets because they are so abbreviated.

I believe what he is implying is a track more North and East. With that said, if the ridge continues to hold the way it has been all Summer as well as how it has been forecasted there is only one way to go. Go West young man. The only way this gets further up the coast is if the ridge suddenly starts to break down. As far as a Florida threat I'd say anyone from the Keys to Jacksonville are still in play. With the ridge the way it is I don't see it getting any further north than Jacksonville. I'm still thinking Erin in 95' is a good analog for this.

[Blown Away]

12z...

06z...

00z...

Intensity seems to be trending up...