ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

So the strongest winds are now on the E side instead of NE?

[Iceresistance]

This thing is absolutely speed racing to get ashore.. might make landfall within the hour.

https://i.imgur.com/bbFg4nW.jpg

This has got to be close to Nate's record in the gulf. 3pm CDT update will likely be the NHC's final say on whether to upgrade or not. Unless they send out a landfall update

Another Hourly Update for sure

[supercane4867]

Surprised that they didn't go for another penetration in the SE eyewall. Probably because they figured out there's enough time to get another full pass.

[ElectricStorm]

This thing is absolutely speed racing to get ashore.. might make landfall within the hour.

https://i.imgur.com/bbFg4nW.jpg

This has got to be close to Nate's record in the gulf. 3pm CDT update will likely be the NHC's final say on whether to upgrade or not. Unless they send out a landfall update

Another Hourly Update for sure

Yeah this will likely be the last hourly update before landfall

[Syx6sic]

320
URNT12 KNHC 281949
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL282020
A. 28/19:36:20Z
B. 28.58 deg N 090.95 deg W
C. 700 mb 2863 m
D. 973 mb
E. 130 deg 12 kt
F. OPEN S-SW
G. C30
H. 65 kt
I. 343 deg 2 nm 19:30:30Z
J. 101 deg 78 kt
K. 351 deg 3 nm 19:30:00Z
L. 69 kt
M. 244 deg 6 nm 19:38:30Z
N. 325 deg 62 kt
O. 240 deg 8 nm 19:39:00Z
P. 12 C / 3012 m
Q. 16 C / 3047 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF309 1728A ZETA OB 17
MAX FL WIND 119 KT 100 / 30 NM 18:43:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 174 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR

[skyline385]

971mb at 73 knots on the N eyewall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 8-1929.png

[gfsperpendicular]

All these eyewalls and they choose SW

[Iceresistance]

I'm like REEEEEEEEEEEEE for the 3PM update

[Ken711]

3:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 28
Location: 28.7°N 90.8°W
Moving: NNE at 22 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[ElectricStorm]

971mb at 73 knots on the N eyewall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 8-1929.png

Umm...
That supports like 964... Geez it's bombing out

[Iceresistance]

All these eyewalls and they choose SW

I figured out this: They are going SW so they turn east for the Eastern Eyewall

[PTrackerLA]

Appreciate that pcolaman. Mother-in-law was just over there the last couple days but bailed when she thought she was going to get hit by a hurricane only to come back to New Orleans. haha. You can't win them all. Best to you and everyone else in my other hometown over there in the 850.

What does it look like outside?

Grey, rainy (moderate) and winds in the low teens. Nothing crazy yet so far.

Good luck Steve and others in the area! Hopefully NOLA metro can avoid the strongest winds, it will be very close. Very tropical feeling here in Lafayette with a breeze and fast moving low clouds, I also have a solid headache which is a tell-tale sign a storm is nearby.

[edu2703]

3:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 28
Location: 28.7°N 90.8°W
Moving: NNE at 22 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[ElectricStorm]

3:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 28
Location: 28.7°N 90.8°W
Moving: NNE at 22 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

I think 972 is a little high but 95kts is a lot more reasonable than 90. May need to upgrade to 100kts at landfall if it keeps this up though

[kevin]

My guess is that the next hourly update (i.e. when it makes landfall) will be the one where they upgrade it to major status, but only if they measure similar FL winds in the next SE pass as during the previous one.

[skyline385]

Very conservative from NHC considering the last drop in the N eyewall

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is a far stronger candidate for a post-season upgrade to major hurricane status than Sally ever was, IMO.

[TallahasseeMan]

3:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 28
Location: 28.7°N 90.8°W
Moving: NNE at 22 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

We're witnessing an incredible turn of events.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1321534908486029313

[Iceresistance]

What does it look like outside?

Grey, rainy (moderate) and winds in the low teens. Nothing crazy yet so far.

Good luck Steve and others in the area! Hopefully NOLA metro can avoid the strongest winds, it will be very close. Very tropical feeling here in Lafayette with a breeze and fast moving low clouds, I also have a solid headache which is a tell-tale sign a storm is nearby.

The pressure is crashing, causing headaches & stomach aches because of the pressure.