ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sicktght311]

At what point does NHC start increasing their storm surge forecasts? they have 8-12 for the bulk of where the storm will come ashore, but theres almost no doubt, that if this storm goes through an EWRC, grows in size, but continues to push this cat5+ water, we're going to be looking at historic surge numbers for the areas well in excess of 15 feet

[weeniepatrol]

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS... ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...

[Highteeld]

36 mb pressure drop in about 5 hours.

[Sanibel]

We are witnessing a historic record Atlantic hurricane...

Depending on how it ends up this could be a civil emergency in Florida...

It is always the flat-trackers...

(I am an internet amateur...Go to official sources for hurricane information)

[AutoPenalti]

Birds spotted. This is an intense system.

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1843343978248450304

[toad strangler]

I think there needs to be a new term.
Accelerated Intensification.

OR ARI?
Accelerated Rapid Intensification

[aspen]

When is the next recon flight expected to head out? Someone mentioned 1:30pm EST, so far nothing on Tropical Tidbits.

[Pasmorade]

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS... ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...

Four days ago, models stated that this would just be a weak frontal low...

[Kazmit]

35 mb drop in one recon mission. Crazy.

[weeniepatrol]

presented without comment

[Beef Stew]

And with that, the AF plane is done. Now the long wait begins...

[Kazmit]

It''s official. 911mb and 175mph.

[ElectricStorm]

Upper-level NOAA9 just took off, not sure when the next low-level mission is but it needs to be soon

[CrazyC83]

The next mission is going to be one we will be anticipating so much - and I hope the Hurricane Hunters have everything strapped down and are prepared for the ride of their life.

[FLpanhandle91]

That recon about to take off is NOAA'S G-IV upper-level bird (Gonzo). NOAA 42 (Kermit) doesn't take off until 1500CDT.

[aspen]

Upper-level NOAA9 just took off, not sure when the next low-level mission is but it needs to be soon

Yeah the NOAA9 flight was the ~1:30pm ET one mentioned earlier. Darn.

[galaxy401]

Milton is just 3 mb away from Maria and reaching the top 10 most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic.

[mpic]

The 24 hour drives to San Antonio during the Rita evacs are why we have contraflow now and why people in well built homes away from the coast are urged to stay put. 'Hide from the Wind, Flee from the Sea'.

It took me 24 hours to get from Dickinson to Woodville! I knew very little about hurricanes at the time and went right into the path lol.

[Beef Stew]

Upper-level NOAA9 just took off, not sure when the next low-level mission is but it needs to be soon

Likely won't arrive for another five hours (give or take), unfortunately.

On the bright side, maybe I'll actually get some work done now...

[TallyTracker]

 https://x.com/bclemms/status/1843332887170691089

What is the reasoning for no contraflow? Is it because half the people will want to evac south? Is there a point south where contraflow would be initiated? Maybe I answered my own question?

I mentioned this a bit earlier but after 2017 Florida changed their emergency evacuation plans from using contraflow to using the shoulders as emergency lanes. I'm not sure on the reasoning for this, but my guess would be the logistical effort/time lost in activating a contraflow plan isn't worth the added efficiency. Emergency shoulder use provides 2/3 of the lanes and requires much less to activate. Not using contraflow also allows utilities and emergency resources to position themselves for rapid response easier.

Also it’s much easier to keep getting supplies in like gasoline and food for preparations. Contraflow slows all that down. Reality is most people stay in the area due to a plethora of reasons and supplies need to be available at shelters and stores.