Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 yes

[Ntxw]

P7 in Jan and getting to ~P2 by February in Nina is ideal. Quickly get past P8 (so that the western ridge doesn't poke to the central US, even better.

[DukeMu]

12Z Euro drops the hammer, Barney Colors are back, its been awhile!!!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1768305600/1769450400-Xd6weAFO9Wk.png

GFS features an ice storm through the center of Texas on the 24/25th...including Waco, College Station.

[HockeyTx82]

I swear this time yesterday y'all were ready to put a fork in Winter and move on to Summer, and now we're talking about a big cold outbreak?

[Ntxw]

Verdict is in. December was the 5th warmest nationally and 3rd warmest for Texas. I most definitely won't be predicting a 'cold' December next season by default, unless overwhelming evidence otherwise! Too easy to be wrong.





Note how the list for this month is dominated by 2021-2025 (2022 the exception.)

[Ntxw]

Bonus Oklahoma was tied for 4th. The beginning of the month saved you guys since you were closer to the cold source to the northeast.

[txtwister78]

This is the time period I had been watching (late month) because as Ntxw just mentioned you needed to check some boxes first before just watching model runs alone when those variables were never really in play (MJO, teleconnections impact etc).

We may now be entering that phase/window. Yes, things can still change obviously 300 hours out but at least we have some signals to point to in our favor for "real" cold down the road that we really haven't had throughout this winter.

I’m praying at the very least for some rain. It feels like forever since it last rained.

I hear you. My area is still under drought but signs are pointing to an El Nino transition as we move into the Spring so hopefully we can cash in on that in the long range especially across areas like mine that have never really come out of that (drought conditions).

[wxman57]

12Z Euro drops the hammer, Barney Colors are back, its been awhile!!!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1768305600/1769450400-Xd6weAFO9Wk.png

GFS features an ice storm through the center of Texas on the 24/25th...including Waco, College Station.

Sort of like the big ice storm it had for Texas this coming weekend a few days ago? The GFS isn't handling the upper-level flow well. It has a cutoff low moving across Texas the 25th-26th, while the Euro has straight NW flow (dry cold). Looking at the predicted 500mb pattern in the 12Z EC, I see the potential for some very cold air plunging south across TX the weekend after next It has lows in Houston in the lower 20s with highs near 30 the 26th. Maybe 36 hrs below freezing. Not good, but I'll survive in my warm office. I have the temperature up to 81 in here now.

That front is way too far off for much confidence in it. One thing for sure, stay FAR away from the GFS long-range forecast.

[Sambucol2024]

12Z Euro drops the hammer, Barney Colors are back, its been awhile!!!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1768305600/1769450400-Xd6weAFO9Wk.png

GFS features an ice storm through the center of Texas on the 24/25th...including Waco, College Station.

Sort of like the big ice storm it had for Texas this coming weekend a few days ago? The GFS isn't handling the upper-level flow well. It has a cutoff low moving across Texas the 25th-26th, while the Euro has straight NW flow (dry cold). Looking at the predicted 500mb pattern in the 12Z EC, I see the potential for some very cold air plunging south across TX the weekend after next It has lows in Houston in the lower 20s with highs near 30 the 26th. Maybe 36 hrs below freezing. Not good, but I'll survive in my warm office. I have the temperature up to 81 in here now.

That front is way too far off for much confidence in it. One thing for sure, stay FAR away from the GFS long-range forecast.

Wxman57, let us know where we can send you some Heat Storm space heaters to help you through the cold air mass that’s coming!!

[HockeyTx82]

12Z Euro drops the hammer, Barney Colors are back, its been awhile!!!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1768305600/1769450400-Xd6weAFO9Wk.png

GFS features an ice storm through the center of Texas on the 24/25th...including Waco, College Station.

Sort of like the big ice storm it had for Texas this coming weekend a few days ago? The GFS isn't handling the upper-level flow well. It has a cutoff low moving across Texas the 25th-26th, while the Euro has straight NW flow (dry cold). Looking at the predicted 500mb pattern in the 12Z EC, I see the potential for some very cold air plunging south across TX the weekend after next It has lows in Houston in the lower 20s with highs near 30 the 26th. Maybe 36 hrs below freezing. Not good, but I'll survive in my warm office. I have the temperature up to 81 in here now.

That front is way too far off for much confidence in it. One thing for sure, stay FAR away from the GFS long-range forecast.

Oh boy, when Wxman57 starts buying in we know it's game on.

Looks like it could be fun times ahead, we have to wait and see.

[Brent]

Good grief the Euro was extremely cold. Two days in a row here with a high in the teens! not sure I've seen the Euro that aggressive that far out

It still hits 73 a couple days before too

[wxman22]

18Z GFS shows a Blizzard LOL not that I believe it though.But its fun to look at.

[Ntxw]

Around same time period as Euro (same cold air mass I think) 18z gfs is snowy. It is the gfs we toss!

[Iceresistance]

I know this isn't for Texas, but I had to show this here as this is the craziest GFS snowfall run I have ever seen that isn't the Western USA mountain influenced


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bhDD6.png
Same storm that gives snow to DFW

[gpsnowman]

I know this isn't for Texas, but I had to show this here as this is the craziest GFS snowfall run I have ever seen that isn't the Western USA mountain influenced

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bhDD6.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bhDD6.png
Same storm that gives snow to DFW

Pittsburgh for the win.

[HockeyTx82]

I know this isn't for Texas, but I had to show this here as this is the craziest GFS snowfall run I have ever seen that isn't the Western USA mountain influenced

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bhDD6.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bhDD6.png
Same storm that gives snow to DFW

Pittsburgh for the win.

Nah, they lost and I'm ok with that as a Cowboys fan.....

[wxman22]

After being burned so many times this season, I would like to see at least a few days of model runs before believing in any arctic air intrusion.

[wxman57]

GFS features an ice storm through the center of Texas on the 24/25th...including Waco, College Station.

Sort of like the big ice storm it had for Texas this coming weekend a few days ago? The GFS isn't handling the upper-level flow well. It has a cutoff low moving across Texas the 25th-26th, while the Euro has straight NW flow (dry cold). Looking at the predicted 500mb pattern in the 12Z EC, I see the potential for some very cold air plunging south across TX the weekend after next It has lows in Houston in the lower 20s with highs near 30 the 26th. Maybe 36 hrs below freezing. Not good, but I'll survive in my warm office. I have the temperature up to 81 in here now.

That front is way too far off for much confidence in it. One thing for sure, stay FAR away from the GFS long-range forecast.

Oh boy, when Wxman57 starts buying in we know it's game on.

Looks like it could be fun times ahead, we have to wait and see.

I'm not "buying-in" just yet. It's just interesting that it's the Euro and not the GFS this time. If it was the GFS then I'd automatically dismiss it. Temperature on my desk in my home office is still at 80.4 degrees. It's 53.8 on the porch. Ready for summer.

[Brent]

Yes I'm quite shocked it's the Euro showing that to say the least

Now granted it's in that range everything has fallen apart so far but the Euro???

[bubba hotep]

Yes I'm quite shocked it's the Euro showing that to say the least

Now granted it's in that range everything has fallen apart so far but the Euro???

I liked the OP Euro better when it ended at 240 hrs. It still had some usefulness. Now, the OP Euro and AI are just as whacky as the GFS once you get out in the longrange, really no better than an additional ensemble member.