Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Jam151]

TD Ernesto with that vortex plus it has to go over cuba, Hurricane center still holds it at 60mph(a joke imo) and shows 80knts before going in south of Tampa. Currently i'm not buying a TD surviving over mountains of cuba.

[Stormcenter]

Look at the latest 5 day outlook it looks like Ernesto won't be in the GOM as long as initially anticipated. These turn of events are amazing. On Friday there was talk of a possible cat.5 threatening the Western or N.Central GOM and we have the possibility of weaker storm barely in the SE GOM.

[edbri871]

The florida straights can really intensify a storm rapidly if the conditions are right. And right now the conditiongs are right for developement out there. 90 degree water temp and no shear. It will have atleast 24-36 hours after leaving Cuba to strenthen in the bath tub waters of the Gulf/Straight.

[ConvergenceZone]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200605_5day.gif

no more cat2 expected, but I guess that was pretty much a given...At least with the hype dying down now with this one, this board should be easier to access due to less people on it...

[storms in NC]

It is fireing back up now. And going to pass over the very small part of Cuba. And yes this can go out to sea and not hit the mainland of the US

[CrazyC83]

This is certainly no fish storm. Even if it flees into the Atlantic, it has the Bahamas to go through, and perhaps run close to the East Coast...

[WindRunner]

TD Ernesto with that vortex plus it has to go over cuba, Hurricane center still holds it at 60mph(a joke imo) and shows 80knts before going in south of Tampa. Currently i'm not buying a TD surviving over mountains of cuba.

It's not a TD per any of the vortexes. VDMs do not determine a storm's intensity. FL winds may be low, but as to whether they are a good indicator of the storm's intensity is up to the NHC to decide.

EDIT: And they have decided on 50kts . . .

APPARENTLY...THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI HAS DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 1004 MB...AND THE HIGHEST OBSERVED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 42 KT. IT IS PRESUMED THAT STRONGER WINDS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR
THE COASTLINE OF HAITI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS
GENEROUSLY...AT 50 KT.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

People, focus.

High pressure . . . timing . . . 99% not out to sea before it hits the US. . .

The high will not retrograde 1000 miles in three days. Please, we have already chased our pro mets away. Just make one forecast and don’t remind us. There will be time for that after the fact. Just like the pro mets do.

[Thunder44]

[Jam151]

TD Ernesto with that vortex plus it has to go over cuba, Hurricane center still holds it at 60mph(a joke imo) and shows 80knts before going in south of Tampa. Currently i'm not buying a TD surviving over mountains of cuba.

It's not a TD per any of the vortexes. VDMs do not determine a storm's intensity. FL winds may be low, but as to whether they are a good indicator of the storm's intensity is up to the NHC to decide.

amazing...

[tropicsPR]

A short report from Haiti. This is a link of the Caribbean Hurricane Network...

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/haiti.shtml

[PTPatrick]

actually, weaker storms often sustain themselves bettew over the islands than the strong ones. I dont know the meteorological reason for this, but I guess it that they draw more influence from farther away from the center of circulation. Not to harp on this, but Frederic survived after traversing the LENTGTH of Hispanola AND Cuba, only to regain hurricane status on the NE coast of cuba...

[Opal storm]

Look at the latest 5 day outlook it looks Ernesto won't be in the GOM as long as initially anticipated. These turn of events are amazing. On Friday there was talk of a possible cat.5 threatening the Western or N.Central GOM and we have the possibility of weaker storm barely in the SE GOM.

48 hrs ago the models were showing a TX/LA landfall,and now we are talking about the possibility of this missing Florida altogether.The tropics can be really strange sometimes.I really doubt this will become a cat 3 considering how much time it will spend over Cuba.

[Cape Verde]

Well, this has been the most frustrating storm I've ever followed. It defies the models. It's track and intensity changes every six hours.

Haiti wasn't even in the "cone" yesterday and Ernesto has been hammering it all day today.

Two days ago, Houston was in the bullseye. By this evening, it might be Antarctica. I dunno.

Weather is a science, but it's surely not one we've mastered.

[craptacular]

356
SXXX50 KNHC 272049
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 38 KNHC
2039. 1825N 07455W 01523 0043 064 012 174 152 013 01599 0000000000
2040 1827N 07456W 01524 0043 058 015 172 156 016 01599 0000000000
2040. 1828N 07457W 01524 0044 056 017 170 158 018 01601 0000000000
2041 1829N 07458W 01524 0045 056 018 170 156 018 01601 0000000000
2041. 1830N 07500W 01524 0045 056 022 170 156 023 01602 0000000000
2042 1831N 07501W 01524 0045 071 016 172 154 019 01602 0000000000
2042. 1833N 07502W 01524 0045 085 020 170 154 021 01602 0000000000
2043 1834N 07503W 01523 0045 078 019 164 160 019 01602 0000000000
2043. 1835N 07505W 01524 0046 077 020 164 160 020 01603 0000000000
2044 1836N 07506W 01524 0047 071 016 168 158 016 01604 0000000000
2044. 1838N 07507W 01525 0047 070 016 170 156 017 01605 0000000000
2045 1839N 07509W 01523 0048 069 018 170 158 019 01604 0000000000
2045. 1840N 07510W 01525 0047 068 021 170 156 021 01605 0000000000
2046 1841N 07511W 01522 0048 075 019 164 158 021 01603 0000000000
2046. 1842N 07512W 01524 0048 072 020 166 154 021 01605 0000000000
2047 1844N 07514W 01524 0048 071 020 166 152 021 01605 0000000000
2047. 1845N 07515W 01524 0048 072 022 166 152 022 01604 0000000000
2048 1846N 07516W 01525 0048 072 023 164 152 023 01605 0000000000
2048. 1847N 07517W 01523 0048 073 023 162 156 024 01604 0000000000
2049 1849N 07519W 01525 0049 077 023 160 158 024 01607 0000000000
;

[SapphireSea]

I could see rapid intensification of this storm judging it goes more into open Bahamas, and doubtfully I don't see it getting that far North. Clip on the Middle Keys and a snakes bend back NE and entering North Central FL with the trough. Intensity if it does this should be moderate-high cat2/3.

If somehow it makes it above 22N intact I could see cat 2/3 in a few hours but this will likely recurve ahead of any weaknesses in ULs.

[terstorm1012]

I waiting until the NOAA atmospheric sampling occurs tonight and we get that fed into the models. When that happens we'll have a much better idea of where this thing will eventually go.

Ernesto certainly has been an interesting storm to follow these last few days.

[cinlfla]

A short report from Haiti. This is a link of the Caribbean Hurricane Network...

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/haiti.shtml

Thank You for posting I was wonding how they were doing down there. There is another thread on here where other people are also wondering about reports coming from Haiti

[miamicanes177]

12Z of the GFDL brings this to 946mb before making landfall in the panhandle.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=114hr

[6SpeedTA95]

12Z of the GFDL brings this to 946mb before making landfall in the panhandle.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=114hr

IMO thats the more accurate of the models at least for the time being. Given the high pressure system in place and the shortwave thats supposed to build in I think a panhandle or upper west coast landfall seems the more likely of the current scenarios.