Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

[Windtalker1]

So that's just south of Cuba I'm thinking?

skysummit,the red line is GFDL.

The Models will change even more in the coming days...maybe shift more north as it gets stronger.

[cajungal]

These models will keep flip flopping back and forth until something actually forms. And how many times they forecasted something to form and it just fizzled? It is end of August folks and the fat lady is far from singing yet.

[jhamps10]

or couldn't it shift south if it gets stronger? We really don't know right now, but if this develops, which appears highly possible if not likely it could go into the GOM. Where it goes after that we don't know, but hopefully it goes towards texas and then curves back NE towards Illinois since we really need some good rain, Not to be mean to our friends in the texas coast, cause I would never wish that on someone.

[johngaltfla]

Reminds me of where Edith formed....

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at197106.asp

[PTrackerLA]

remember wilma's path? an charlie too?still a possible threat!

Wilma...Late October...totally different season...westerlies turned it. The fall is a very fluid season and subtropical highs are transient and the models have a hard time with them because of the rapid movement of shortwaves and longwave trofs.

Charlie-BIG trof in the Gulf.

I don't see a big trof and it's not fall.

Funny how "nobody" caught on to that big trof in the gulf to prepare the people better in Charlies path. Everyone was saying TAMPA

It was a ridiculously strong trough for the time of year. Our low temps dipped into the 50's in AUGUST! I wish we had them every year .

[curtadams]

Quickscat is out http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png Not much on the surface - some warping of flows but far from a closed circ.

[Sanibel]

Looks like we finally have a bull entering the arena.


Very similar to Charley.

[Evil Jeremy]

So that's just south of Cuba I'm thinking?

skysummit,the red line is GFDL.

The Models will change even more in the coming days...maybe shift more north as it gets stronger.

and north=florida

[crown]

I'd wager that the "center" of this system will not follow what the models (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88600&start=187) have been showing so far - across or close to Tobago and then across Grenada as a tropical storm.

This may yet be one of those classic cases where the models say 'that' way but the systems goes 'this' way.

Based on what the track has been this past day, I'd wager that the "center" will pass either over or slightly north of Barbados Thursday afternoon.

[MortisFL]

And days to go...watch and see grasshoppers

Exactly -- wait and see. I'm surprised so many of you are giving location estimates for a storm that doesn't exist yet. The intensity and depth of any possible system directly feeds back into its path/motion, and we all know how bad intensity forecasts can be. We're over a week out for any part of this now-wave to come anywhere close to the US, so you might as well hold most track discussion until we at least get a TD. People will get unnecessarily nervous or unnecessarily blasé. It is good that there is at least SOME model agreement for this yet-undeveloped system, but even that has little value given it's undeveloped nature attm.

Welcome to Storm2k

[Air Force Met]

Funny how "nobody" caught on to that big trof in the gulf to prepare the people better in Charlies path. Everyone was saying TAMPA

?????



The trof is what turned Charlie. If you look at landfall and forecasted track in terms of ACTUAL error...it was less than 40 nm! The error comes in he fact that the coast of Florida is shaped in one way...and the storm was moving another...so the slighted error in heading leads to a huge landfalling error....plus there were other factors invovled that caused Charlie to go in a little earlier.

Your talking like the landfall forecast 24 hours out was Alabama...and that is not the case. Again...the actual track error was small...it was the angle that worked against the people in the path of Charlie...not the forecast.

[Air Force Met]

and north=florida

Well the GFDL has shifted well to the south...

Still a ridge to contend with...so where it is going to be?

[Derek Ortt]

This is highly unlikely to hit the TUTT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The wave grows even sharper almost there!!! Down to 1/2 a degrees or less.

[rnbaida]

the GFDL brings this system to 110mph at 120 hours.... We may have a major system on our hands.

[Vortex]

97L is becoming much better organized this evening!

[cycloneye]

the GFDL brings this system to 110mph at 120 hours.... We may have a major system on our hands.

Do you have a link to see that run?

[ROCK]

and north=florida

Well the GFDL has shifted well to the south...

Still a ridge to contend with...so where it is going to be?

Florida...... These types of storms plow right through ridges...you know that....

[rnbaida]

the GFDL brings this system to 110mph at 120 hours.... We may have a major system on our hands.

Do you have a link to see that run?

I have accuweather pro....you can sign up for a free 30 day trial

[johngaltfla]

Funny how "nobody" caught on to that big trof in the gulf to prepare the people better in Charlies path. Everyone was saying TAMPA

?????



The trof is what turned Charlie. If you look at landfall and forecasted track in terms of ACTUAL error...it was less than 40 nm! The error comes in he fact that the coast of Florida is shaped in one way...and the storm was moving another...so the slighted error in heading leads to a huge landfalling error....plus there were other factors invovled that caused Charlie to go in a little earlier.

Your talking like the landfall forecast 24 hours out was Alabama...and that is not the case. Again...the actual track error was small...it was the angle that worked against the people in the path of Charlie...not the forecast.

To return to the original subject, first I have to say is this; it was a small storm. The size of Charlie had a lot to do with the degree of error. Up to one hour before landfall, all of us in the Venice-Sarasota area thought we were toast.

I have nothing but applause for the mets that day. They did the best they can with a strong Cat 4 which behaved like a wild afternoon thunderstorm directionally speaking. When that low front dropped I prayed like hell it would steer it away from us but alot of my friends unfortunately paid the price.

This storm is nothing like Charlie. It isn't even a storm yet. Give it 24 hours. Give the mets and models 48 to get a good picture of the upcoming climatology next week.

Then get excited or calm down. It's way too early in the ball game to proclaim Ernesto another Charlie, please.

Just give the pros some time to digest data. That's all I ask.