ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Bocadude85]

12z Model Guidance.





06z GEFS Ensembles.

Those tracks remind me of the 1947 hurricane.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1947_Fort_Lauderdale_hurricane#/media/File:1947_Fort_Lauderdale_hurricane_track.png

[AutoPenalti]

I've noticed since yesterday evening that models have shifted a bit more to the NW. Or is it just me?

[Aric Dunn]

I've noticed since yesterday evening that models have shifted a bit more to the NW. Or is it just me?

yes, not because of a weaker ridge its simply because they are forecasting the system to be organized and stronger earlier than previous day which allows it to gain a little more latitude before running into the ridging. it just creates a worse scenario for the east coast.

[stormlover2013]

they have, they are just trying to get a grip on the ridge...yesterday runs had the ridge pretty dadgum strong,00 RUNS had it a little bit weaker....will have a better with the ridge around Thursday or friday

[stormlover2013]

I was reading on a paid website that said if the ridge is strong it will turn westward, the weaker the ridge it will find a weakness...I don't think it
matters to much of how strong the system is, its going to depend on how strong the ridge is...that's what I was gathering from the paid website...could be wrong who knows

[RL3AO]

I was reading on a paid website that said if the ridge is strong it will turn westward, the weaker the ridge it will find a weakness...I don't think it
matters to much of how strong the system is, its going to depend on how strong the ridge is...that's what I was gathering from the paid website...could be wrong who knows

I don't see a scenario where the pattern lets this go out to sea. A weaker ridge may only mean further north in FL/east coast.

[cajungal]

Looks like a good shift to the north. I thought this ridge was very strong and it looked def gulf bound. It would be good news if it did stay out the gulf.

[stormlover2013]

cajun that is what the models are struggling on right now, we will see a flip flop scenario and won't get a good grip on it prob till Thursday..we are all used to this but the ridge has been strong all summer, I don''t see it weakening right now...

[Nederlander]

I was reading on a paid website that said if the ridge is strong it will turn westward, the weaker the ridge it will find a weakness...I don't think it
matters to much of how strong the system is, its going to depend on how strong the ridge is...that's what I was gathering from the paid website...could be wrong who knows

Stronger, more developed storms will feel weaknesses and be pulled more poleward than weaker systems.. so strength of storm certainly matters IF there is a weakness present..

The next few model runs are going to be heavily watched. The HWRF has been pretty consistent thus far, so it'll be interesting to see what verifies.

[AutoPenalti]

Never mind, I saw HWRF with the NW turn and then all of the sudden bam, the hard west, towards Ft. Lauderdale, yikes.

[stormlover2013]

neder, I am just saying what I am reading from my paid website I use and what my meteorologist buddy told me, it says if the ridge stays strong like it has been then it will get push westward no matter how strong the system is, it could be a ridge rider

[Weatherboy1]

FWIW, the Day 6 map from the WPC has 99 making landfall in SE FL. Obviously, the NHC is the authority everyone should follow - a fact noted on the map itself. But I like to watch these maps and read the associated discussions to see what professional forecasters are seeing in terms of the players on the field beyond the 5-day period the NHC publicly discusses.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=ter

[gatorcane]

The 00Z ECMWF even suggests some south of west movement (aka Andrew) due to the strong ridge - not saying it will be as strong as Andrew though just pointing out the track possibilities.

This also can be a scenario that a stronger system could get pushed more to the west in the Bahamas than a weaker system.

[rockyman]

Depending on the type of ridge (how high it extends into the atmosphere) and its orientation at different altitudes, a stronger system CAN be pushed more west or southwest. We've seen this happen with very strong storms as they approached the Bahamas and South Florida (Andrew, Katrina, Ike). It's a general rule that the stronger the storm, the more poleward it will go, but it is not always true.

[Blown Away]

The 00Z ECMWF even suggests some south of west movement (aka Andrew) due to the strong ridge - not saying it will be as strong as Andrew though just pointing out the track possibilities.

This also can be a scenario that a stronger system could get pushed more to the west in the Bahamas than a weaker system.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/768062315094798336




Stronger system could be more E as shown by the HWRF... It's hard to totally rule out the magic "Trap Door Scenario"...

[BigB0882]

My biggest concern at the moment is that the models will continue to see that ridge being strong and not breaking it down soon enough. That ridge has been persistent all summer so will it break down next week? I tend to doubt it. I also know models often underdo the ridges as you get beyond 3-4 days. Right now Louisiana would be saved as the models show this turning sharply north once in the Gulf but what if that turn is much more gradual or happens later? I can't imagine what this area would do. Has an area ever been hit by multiple natural disasters in a short period of time? I know someone mentioned 3 hurricanes hitting a rather small area in 1860 but of course you did not have the populations we have now.

[TheStormExpert]

Joe B. is forecasting a major Cat.3 strike on North Carolina this is why.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/768081797733318656

[TheStormExpert]

My biggest concern at the moment is that the models will continue to see that ridge being strong and not breaking it down soon enough. That ridge has been persistent all summer so will it break down next week? I tend to doubt it. I also know models often underdo the ridges as you get beyond 3-4 days. Right now Louisiana would be saved as the models show this turning sharply north once in the Gulf but what if that turn is much more gradual or happens later? I can't imagine what this area would do. Has an area ever been hit by multiple natural disasters in a short period of time? I know someone mentioned 3 hurricanes hitting a rather small area in 1860 but of course you did not have the populations we have now.

According to the latest Euro Ensembles it's hard to discount the possibility of the ridge breaking down.

[stormlover2013]

BigB I totally agree with you

[Javlin]

I was reading on a paid website that said if the ridge is strong it will turn westward, the weaker the ridge it will find a weakness...I don't think it
matters to much of how strong the system is, its going to depend on how strong the ridge is...that's what I was gathering from the paid website...could be wrong who knows

Stronger, more developed storms will feel weaknesses and be pulled more poleward than weaker systems.. so strength of storm certainly matters IF there is a weakness present..

The next few model runs are going to be heavily watched. The HWRF has been pretty consistent thus far, so it'll be interesting to see what verifies.

WX57 mentioned the other day a stronger system may go more W?which I I was going what?so something a little different Is at play here I guess.