2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stratton23]

SFLcane we will see, AIFS/ GFS and even the CMC operational run is trending a little stronger with ridging, wouldnt be surprised if ensembles trend that way too, i give a little more weight to the AIFS since it nailed the upper air pattern with francine

[N2FSU]

12z GFS:




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[SFLcane]

SFLcane ensembles will catch on eventually, AIFS/ GFS and even the CMC operational run is trending a little stronger with ridging, wouldnt be surprised if ensembles trend that way too

Sure can very early could go either way but that GFS run is silly.

[SFLcane]

GEFS still brining in the timing...

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1835726337019154611

[DunedinDave]

Well if there’s gonna be a “big one” this year, what may be cooking down in the Caribbean at this time next week could be it. CMC wants to take an Ian track while GFS more due west and into Mexico as a cat 4 or 5.

[Stratton23]

Even though im thinking ridging will trend stronger, the GFS definitely is over doing it, even for september that is an abnormally strong ridge over the central US, dont really buy that strong of a ridge, but i think their will be enough ridging to prevent this from going up the east coast or getting yanked out to sea

[Weathertracker96]

Even though im thinking ridging will trend stronger, the GFS definitely is over doing it, even for september that is an abnormally strong ridge over the central US, dont really buy that strong of a ridge, but i think their will be enough ridging to prevent this from going up the east coast or getting yanked out to sea

Yes. I don’t see a system getting that far west especially with how the pattern as been. But we’ll see. New GEFS ensembles are still east into FL or eastern gulf.

[Weathertracker96]

The new GEFS ensembles have majority going NE near or into FL. But I was wondering, when do you all think the nhc may highlight this? It seems ensembles are moving up in time.

[jlauderdal]

The new GEFS ensembles have majority going NE near or into FL. But I was wondering, when do you all think the nhc may highlight this? It seems ensembles are moving up in time.

We are days away from that, just watch for now.

[WaveBreaking]

12Z ICON and 00Z Euro both show a broad, weak low in the WCAR at the end of both runs.

[SFLcane]

The new GEFS ensembles have majority going NE near or into FL. But I was wondering, when do you all think the nhc may highlight this? It seems ensembles are moving up in time.

Earliest Friday/saturday i would think. Long ways to go!

[AutoPenalti]

The new GEFS ensembles have majority going NE near or into FL. But I was wondering, when do you all think the nhc may highlight this? It seems ensembles are moving up in time.

Earliest Friday/saturday i would think. Long ways to go!

Is it though? Time frame to genesis according to the GEFS is this week. If anything 0% lemon by Wednesday the latest.

[cycloneye]

He is already paying atention.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1835732560296415241

[SFLcane]

The new GEFS ensembles have majority going NE near or into FL. But I was wondering, when do you all think the nhc may highlight this? It seems ensembles are moving up in time.

Earliest Friday/saturday i would think. Long ways to go!

Is it though? Time frame to genesis according to the GEFS is this week. If anything 0% lemon by Wednesday the latest.

There is nothing there on wed on the gefs id say friday the earliest if the signal holds.

[Jr0d]

Alright TPC 8 is on the way out, we just need nothing to develop in the next 5 days or so to preserve the "H" name as we do not want and "I" storm in the NW Carribean moving into the GoM.

Now that my superstition rant is out of the way, it is interesting how much of a shift the operational GFS is showing. We know it will have a completely different solution tomorrow or even tonight.

This weekend is going to get interesting down here in Key West. Ridging is great for us as it should a storm west of us, but would likely be not so good for whoever ultimately gets a system, assuming something does indeed develop.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/CraigSetzer/status/1835736349502210140

[otowntiger]

Earliest Friday/saturday i would think. Long ways to go!

Is it though? Time frame to genesis according to the GEFS is this week. If anything 0% lemon by Wednesday the latest.

There is nothing there on wed on the gefs id say friday the earliest if the signal holds.

and with the way this season is going don’t be shocked to see if there are no indications of this system in the next few days.

[SFLcane]

Is it though? Time frame to genesis according to the GEFS is this week. If anything 0% lemon by Wednesday the latest.

There is nothing there on wed on the gefs id say friday the earliest if the signal holds.

and with the way this season is going don’t be shocked to see if there are no indications of this system in the next few days.

That is always a possibility when your dealing with something that is more then a week out.

[psyclone]

Peak climo in the east gulf and nw Caribbean is now to Halloween...the season has been a dud relative to expectations but we still have a long way to go. I am definitely watching as something is likely to find a way to happen..