ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

That recon about to take off is NOAA'S G-IV upper-level bird (Gonzo). NOAA 42 (Kermit) doesn't take off until 1500CDT.

So that’s roughly 4pm EST, and then it probably won’t get to the eye for another 2 hours. That’s a long wait for a system like this…fingers crossed it catches Milton’s peak.

If Milton hasn’t started its modeled EWRC/eyewall meld by then, I think the odds of Kermit finding a sub-900 system are very high. Maybe even sub-890.

[FLpanhandle91]

I know it's fun watching low-level recon get these historic readings in their missions and there seems to be some disappointment that this next flight is upper-level recon. I would argue until I'm blue in the face that NOAA9's data is substantially more impactful to the preparations of folks in Florida.

[WaveBreaking]

Upper-level NOAA9 just took off, not sure when the next low-level mission is but it needs to be soon

Likely won't arrive for another five hours (give or take), unfortunately.

On the bright side, maybe I'll actually get some work done now...

If Milton keeps up this deepening rate, recon will come back to a <900 mbar storm

[weeniepatrol]

[Highteeld]

T 7.5 achieved

[Teban54]

Milton is knocking on the doors of this list. The question is how hard he will shatter it.

[CrazyC83]

That recon about to take off is NOAA'S G-IV upper-level bird (Gonzo). NOAA 42 (Kermit) doesn't take off until 1500CDT.

So that’s roughly 4pm EST, and then it probably won’t get to the eye for another 2 hours. That’s a long wait for a system like this…fingers crossed it catches Milton’s peak.

If Milton hasn’t started its modeled EWRC/eyewall meld by then, I think the odds of Kermit finding a sub-900 system are very high. Maybe even sub-890.

Wilma might be feeling a bit scared at this point if this trend continues.

[CrazyC83]

T 7.5 achieved

https://i.imgur.com/iwT9KRs.jpeg

Just need the CDG to go for T8.0.

[Highteeld]

T 7.5 achieved

https://i.imgur.com/iwT9KRs.jpeg

WMG eye embedded in CMG ring = 155 knots

[HurricaneAndre2008]

This is the last time I'm uptrending. 185 to 200mph. #Milton

[NDG]

Watching this TV Met Channel 10 from Tampa, poor guy is trying to be very hopeful saying that he favors the models showing a track over Port Charlotte/Ft Myers. I guess he was referring the models before the latest 12z global runs.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Can an expert write a summary of why you shouldnt stay in an older Late 80's or mid 90's mobile home


What exactly would happen say, with Cat-4 winds

There is an alarming amount of people in a Moon Lake New Port Richey Group I frequent who are staying behind and are convinced its nothing. Like 7/10 are staying.

[zal0phus]

My final prediction is 190 mph and 897 mb. I absolutely cannot believe what I am witnessing.

[Beef Stew]

Upper-level NOAA9 just took off, not sure when the next low-level mission is but it needs to be soon

Likely won't arrive for another five hours (give or take), unfortunately.

On the bright side, maybe I'll actually get some work done now...

If Milton keeps up this deepening rate, recon will come back to a <900 mbar storm

...If Milton keeps up the deepening rate of the last two passes, it will be sub 900 in less than two hours...

[Texashawk]

https://i.imgur.com/zGn7UPx.png

Uh.. wheeee?

[dafif]

Hey all, been a long time follower and in Orlando. Lived 30 years in Tampa and have friends from Anna Maria, Apollo Beach, Tampa, St Pete and Tarpon Springs. Ex lives on Harbor Island and son just said he is driving down there tomorrow. None are leaving and it is crazy. This is the most intense storm heading this way that I have ever seen.

Thank you to everyone for your expertise. If information is power, this site is fantastic.

[chaser1]

https://x.com/michaelemann/status/1843336981843194151?s=46&t=BuzvkpAA-Jzhwl1m0Dnbtg

Meteorologist John Milton on NBC getting choked up explaining the effects coming for the Yucatán and Florida.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it better that it's getting this strong this early though? as opposed to getting this strong tomorrow or tomorrow night? I only say that because hurricanes don't generally stay cat 5 for very long. I mean a cat 5 way out at sea is much better than a cat 5 Wednesday Morning.

Edit: I'm editing this post, because I didn't realize this monster suppose to get so close to Yucatan, so now I understand. My Bad. My prayers go out to them

It was never expected to make landfall on Florida at/near peak intensity. However I suspect starting from a higher peak; the same amount of weakening from whatever increase in shear/dry air happens will lead to it still coming in stronger.

I don't think that it's early intensification by itself would necessarily reflect its intensity at landfall, UNLESS:
- An earlier EWRC would result in a larger hurricane with the adequate time for the eye to contract again and restrengthen or
- A deeper (or larger) hurricane could potentially begin to increase its own influence to abbuting SE CONUS westerlies or troughs by building increased mid to upper level ridging north of the Hurricane and somewhat "blunting" or moderating the forcast dryer air that is expected to influence weakening on approach to landfall.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1843348572051517870

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1843348572051517870

That's not a list you want to be on...

[chaser1]

Recon reports 8nm wide eye with flocks of birds in the eye

WOW...... damn, would THAT be some picture