ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Well there we have offical word on what the NHC thinks, close but not quite there from the sounds of things. Still watching very closely though just in case it does something during tonights Dmax which is possible.

Also note...could become a tropical depression at any time...

[Derek Ortt]

I thought there have been systems recently that did just fine despite high shear? Hmmm... Maybe those were storms that had already formed though.

A well developed system (hurricane) can usually hold off shear for a little bit. A developing system cannot. Anything over 15 knots and it doesn't have much chance for form. The Central Caribbean is near 40kts. A hurricane can form in 26C water if there is no shear. A hurricane won't form in 32C water with 25 kts of shear.

In this case, the lower level winds are moving very fast while the upper level winds are not. That creates the shear. In the case of Dean last year, the lower level winds were pretty strong from the east, but so were the middle and upper levels. So it didn't actually feel any shear. Thats not the case here.

Chapter 3 of my M.S. Thesis showed that weaker systems are more shear resistant than more intense ones

[Cryomaniac]

whether this storm forms or not, its not even worth worrying about damage or danger from it.

That's a pretty stupid thing to say in my opinion.

[RL3AO]

Chapter 3 of my M.S. Thesis showed that weaker systems are more shear resistant than more intense ones

That makes sense to me if there was 40kt of shear at 300mb or so, but wouldn't it impact a weak system more if the shear was 40kt at 850 mb?

[senorpepr]

Well there we have offical word on what the NHC thinks, close but not quite there from the sounds of things. Still watching very closely though just in case it does something during tonights Dmax which is possible.

Also note...could become a tropical depression at any time...

Although I doubt an upgrade will occur without recon. With the mission two scheduled at 12am EDT... I don't see it the upgrade happening until 5am tomorrow morning AT THE EARLIEST.

Then again... stranger things have happened...

[HURAKAN]

The push needed will probably come tonight after DMAX. Of course, shear must play a nice paper, which is not the forecast.

[senorpepr]

Chapter 3 of my M.S. Thesis showed that weaker systems are more shear resistant than more intense ones

No, it's just easier to notice when a stronger storm is sheared. If it's 140mph then 30kts of shear will knock it down a lot. If however it's just a 40mph tropical storm the shear wont have as much of an impact because it is so weak already. It does not mean they are more resistant. 30kts of shear is 30kts of shear no matter what.

...and what makes you qualified to say that?

[Innotech]

whether this storm forms or not, its not even worth worrying about damage or danger from it.

That's a pretty stupid thing to say in my opinion.

Sorry. youre right. 20 mph winds might knock over a table or something.

[Rainband]

whether this storm forms or not, its not even worth worrying about damage or danger from it. Just a bit of wind and rain. I could see it being an issue with a major hurricane thread or something, but this thing is still barely an invest. Definitely over the top to regulate this particular thread much.

All strong storms come from something, S2K is about discussing the Tropics. thats what people are doing. Tone your comments down a notch

[Derek Ortt]

Chapter 3 of my M.S. Thesis showed that weaker systems are more shear resistant than more intense ones

No, it's just easier to notice when a stronger storm is sheared. If it's 140mph then 30kts of shear will knock it down a lot. If however it's just a 40mph tropical storm the shear wont have as much of an impact because it is so weak already. It does not mean they are more resistant. 30kts of shear is 30kts of shear no matter what.

you're arguing against facts that were reviewed by my Thesis Comittee.

I actually looked at every 6 hour time period for all TCs of TS intensity or greater from 1987 and did the correlation and mean shear values for the 12 hour intensity change.

Shear that is favorable for intensification for a tropical storm is favorable for weakening of a major hurricane

[senorpepr]

whether this storm forms or not, its not even worth worrying about damage or danger from it.

That's a pretty stupid thing to say in my opinion.

Sorry. youre right. 20 mph winds might knock over a table or something.

It's not the winds, but the rainfall. It's easy to get a mudslide in this part of the world...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Like I said earlier I hate thise kinds of systems. I laugh at all that forecasted this season to have more then 15 storms. I mean it will be a ok season with a good cape verdes, but not a "big deal". In fact it is pretty good forecast to go with 12-14 named storms, what ever climo we do have shows that is what is about what we get with active phase like the one we are in.

I'm going to watch Bertha and the Eastern Pacific. Its starting to kick backside big time. I will keep one eye on this in case it doe's something. I could suprized with this season at the end, who knows.

[Innotech]

It's not the winds, but the rainfall. It's easy to get a mudslide in this part of the world...

I doubt that would be a problem in this particular storm. its basically a slightly stronger than normal tropical wave right now.

I mean look, if it was developing into a tropical storm, sure it would be something to worry about, but right now its no worse than a typical storm going over the islands. If it did close off a circulation and begin to strengthen obviously it would be something worth taking caution for.

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

I actually looked at every 6 hour time period for all TCs of TS intensity or greater from 1987 and did the correlation and mean shear values for the 12 hour intensity change.

Shear that is favorable for intensification for a tropical storm is favorable for weakening of a major hurricane

Again, this is not because a 40mph tropical storm has something in it that makes it more "shear resistant". It's already so weak that the shear will not have as much of an impact weakening it. When your starting point is 140mph, and you get 30kts of shear, you have a lot of room to go down. If you start dropping from 40mph then your fall will be less.

that is so far from the truth

15.5KT of shear is about the mean shear for intensifying tropical storms. It is about the mean shear for weakening major hurricanes

Now tell me that one is not more shear resistant than the other

[mattpetre]

Why are we all hating? Too many people in the world? I'm sick of this. I give up on the weather, I give up on people being friendly, I give up... Stupid the way we react to one another...

[mattpetre]

It's dead Hank! This storm has been dead for over 24hrs now, why are you still talking about it?

[RL3AO]

that is so far from the truth

15.5KT of shear is about the mean shear for intensifying tropical storms. It is about the mean shear for weakening major hurricanes

Now tell me that one is not more shear resistant than the other

Question. How often is the shear being caused at the lower levels (the Caribbean now) than at the upper levels? And did your research look at just the shear (200mb-850mb?), or did it also look at if the shear was caused at the upper, middle, or lower levels? Hopefully that made sense.

[senorpepr]

that is so far from the truth

15.5KT of shear is about the mean shear for intensifying tropical storms. It is about the mean shear for weakening major hurricanes

Now tell me that one is not more shear resistant than the other

It takes a much more favorable environment to maintain a 140mph hurricane than it does a 40mph tropical storm. A tropical storm could in fact strengthen at 15kts of shear and 140mph could weaken in 15kts of shear. This is simply because the hurricane is so strong the environment must be nearly perfect to maintain itself. The only shear resistant element to a tropical storm is that it's so weak it takes a lot more shear to cause a negative impact.

Seriously... what qualifications do you have to argue this? Derek has more than enough support on his side.

[Just Joshing You]

Why are you arguing against a pro-met... that's like telling the President you can do a better job. Either get the credentials to back up your claim or just stop. It seems like you're trying to troll.