ATL: IKE Discussion

[tolakram]

[Wx_Warrior]

I love when people jump on certain model bandwagons (especially when they are against the norm)...I remember a few pro mets rolling their eyes at the GFDL during Gustav and now GFDL has won the first two legs of the Triple Crown? LOL. Please. GFDL, at times was all over the place, especially 5 days out with Gusie.

If GFDL pans out as the way it is...it would be great news because Cuba would dampen Ike's spirits.

Doubting models isn't very smart when the consensus has you in the cone. Been there, done that, way too often.

OT: It's been since 1978 (maybe 79) when thoroughbred racing has witnessed a triple crown. Big Brown pulled up lame in the Belmont this year.

[rockyman]

NHC's 11pm end forecast point:

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&g ... 2&t=h&z=10

For anyone interested, you can go to
http://maps.google.com
then type in the coordinates and it'll come up on the map

[sweetpea]

I found this cool website for a quick look up for info.

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/

[Sanibel]

I love when people jump on certain model bandwagons (especially when they are against the norm)...I remember a few pro mets rolling their eyes at the GFDL during Gustav and now GFDL has won the first two legs of the Triple Crown? LOL. Please. GFDL, at times was all over the place, especially 5 days out with Gusie.

If GFDL pans out as the way it is...it would be great news because Cuba would dampen Ike's spirits.

Doubting models isn't very smart when the consensus has you in the cone. Been there, done that, way too often.

OT: It's been since 1978 (maybe 79) when thoroughbred racing has witnessed a triple crown. Big Brown pulled up lame in the Belmont this year.

Answer my specific points about what GFDL said about the dips and what happened in relation to the 2008 tendency for SW dips.

By the way, Big Brown was pulled up by the jockey in a fix. The jockey claimed Big Brown stumbled out of the gate but no analyst saw that on review. Yes Cycloneye, sorry, I know there's a sports forum.

Also, I don't see how what I wrote can be construed as "doubting the consensus". My fear right now is a repeat of GFDL accuracy meaning Ike will continue to trend south into the Keys where it will come up at us in a Donna hook.

Just stick to the points, analysis of posts isn't helpful.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I love when people jump on certain model bandwagons (especially when they are against the norm)...I remember a few pro mets rolling their eyes at the GFDL during Gustav and now GFDL has won the first two legs of the Triple Crown? LOL. Please. GFDL, at times was all over the place, especially 5 days out with Gusie.

If GFDL pans out as the way it is...it would be great news because Cuba would dampen Ike's spirits.

Doubting models isn't very smart when the consensus has you in the cone. Been there, done that, way too often.

OT: It's been since 1978 (maybe 79) when thoroughbred racing has witnessed a triple crown. Big Brown pulled up lame in the Belmont this year.

Answer my specific points about what GFDL said about the dips and what happened in relation to the 2008 tendency for SW dips.

By the way, Big Brown was pulled up by the jockey in a fix. The jockey claimed Big Brown stumbled out of the gate but no analyst saw that on review. Yes Cycloneye, sorry, I know there's a sports forum.

LOL..Big Brown just forgot his drugs for the belmont..

[Blown Away]

Does the track continue WNW or NW across SFL or does Ike make a NNW turn up the spine of Florida?

[Ixolib]

NHC's 11pm end forecast point:http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=26.0N++80.0W&num=10&ie=UTF8&ll=26.019766,-80.000038&spn=0.57262,1.235962&t=h&z=10

I'm wondering what the SURGE IMPACT would be to this coastline and area - and inland - in the event the track holds true. This is Ft Lauderdale, just north of the coordinates posted above.

[stayawaynow]

NHC's 11pm end forecast point:http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=26.0N++80.0W&num=10&ie=UTF8&ll=26.019766,-80.000038&spn=0.57262,1.235962&t=h&z=10

I'm wondering what the SURGE IMPACT would be to this coastline and area - and inland - in the event the track holds true. This is Ft Lauderdale, just north of the coordinates posted above.

There are alot of high rise condos directly on the beach.

[AnthraX151]

There are alot of high condos all up and down the SFL coast. Its gonna be nasty where ever it lands if its a SFL hit.

[cpdaman]

you could say that again....record damage if that track verified, have you seen the homes on the intra coastal? i have never seen such a concentration of millionaire's in my life.

[attallaman]

Could Ike pose a threat to the GOM?

[MHurricanes]

Anybody get a read on how large this storm is? Looks very compact? Bigger or smaller than Charley?

- MHurricanes (Beat the Gators!)

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, the surge along the beaches would be relatively minimal; however, large waves would likely lead to erosion and the collapse of structures on the barrier islands. We observed this phenomenon with the 1926, 1928, and 1947 September TCs, as well as Frances and Jeanne in 2004. It is noted that the 1926 Miami hurricane produced a water mark (documented water level) of 12.6 feet in the vicinity of the Bahia Mar Yacht Club, which is situated north of Port Everglades at the location indicated by Ixolib's satellite imagery. Breaking waves likely added significant height to a relatively minimal surge.

Port Everglades statistics (near Fort Lauderdale):

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~cannon/tr8203nc/pevergla/graphics/tab19-5.gif

Paper:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~cannon/tr8203nc/pevergla/text/sect3.htm

[AnthraX151]

Yeah went fishing last weekend and went out through the Palm Beach inlet and came back in through Jupiter inlet.......just cruised the intra coastal and its insane how much glass is on those homes.....some im sure is shatter proof but im sure a lot isnt....Im crossing my fingers she steers clear of us.

[isobar5]

Could Ike pose a threat to the GOM?

To early to tell. Just keep a watchful eye.

[cpdaman]

well miami the bahamas block swell waves from almost every direction in miami except nearly due north, although i'm sure the wind waves would be pretty dramatic. once you get north of boca they and especially palm beach i think the breaking waves would be a bit higher (NE angle is hundreds of miles of open water)

[gatorcane]

Here is the archive of the NHC 5 day track animation for Gustav.

Amazingly Gustav came ashore LA within about 25 miles of the first 5 day point estimated by the NHC 5 days in advance...

I hope they are not that accurate with Ike:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[curtadams]

A lot of the track differences are probably being driven by differences in the estimation of current strength between various models. Ike is under significant northerly shear, so the stronger he is the more he goes south (in opposition to the usual rules). The models on the north track have Ike fairly weak - generally weaker than Hanna, even, while the south models have Ike mighty. Well, Ike *is* mighty, right now, so I think the south cluster is more accurate. If Ike gets suffocated by shear in the near future then the NHC consensus track might be pretty fair, putting SFL in the crosshairs. But if the shear doesn't clobber Ike, I would expect a track even further south than that, with a Straits passage or even the Greater Antilles strikes several models are suggesting. I do think the South models probably overestimate Ike (they're all prone to overstrengthening) so I expect it will pass N of the Antilles except perhaps the more northerly parts of Cuba.

Since Ike is certainly stronger than the N models predict and will probably get weaker than the S models predict the usual NHC policy of splitting the difference is a good one.

Disclaimer: not a professional, ignore me, blahblahblah

[jhpigott]

There are alot of high condos all up and down the SFL coast. Its gonna be nasty where ever it lands if its a SFL hit.

from Miami Beach all the way to Jupiter Island - nothing but high rise condos and mansions. some of the most valuable real estate in the world . . . and just on the other side of the intracoastal is the Mia-FtLaud-WPB metro area. Outside of the DC-Baltimore-Philly-NYC-Boston cooridor it is the most heavyily populated stretch of coastline on the east coast.

A storm like Andrew approaching from due west limits the amount of territory on the coastline to be effected by the core/eyewall. Now a storm approaching on an angle currently projected for Ike could in theory put that whole section of coastline in the eyewall of a major - just about a worst case scenario