ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Weatherboy1]

cycloneye -- I love that SFWMD map. I mean, look at how "busted" every single one of the previous model forecasts has been. Every single one suggesting an immediate turn to the NW ... and every single one wrong. At what point does one of the NHC discussions get into the obvious westward bias here and explain why it's happening?

[Aric Dunn]

yes but we have a semi decoupled system and watch the convection it is pretty sporadic especially the last couple hours. also you can have a 70 mph that has no inner core.

If you're arguing for semi-decoupled, then do that, I can agree with you there. Mild wind shear will support a flight-level center that doesn't align with the surface center, and that's what we have here... EDIT: now supported by the VDM, too

well fun times.. ok be back later for next recon..

[Evil Jeremy]

I also think we have a decoupled center. I am looking over a visible satellite loop, and is seems that Ida is a little less organized than before. This could hamper its recent intensification, as well as make the future path of it even more unpredictable.

[brunota2003]

hey speak of the devil there is the vortex message..

MAX FL WIND 67 KT SW QUAD 16:41:10Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 148 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN
ACTUAL CENTER APPROX 4NM SE

like i said about 5 miles.

Also, look at how far away the max flight temp was from the flight center. 19 miles...that doesn't bode well for the system. There was also only 3C degrees of separation between the temps (17C outside, versus 20C in the center)...also not too good for strengthening.

[Evil Jeremy]

But, does the AF currently have a plane at Homestead?

No idea, but if not, would it be possible to land the plane for the current mission at Homestead?

[dixiebreeze]

07/1745 UTC 18.6N 84.0W T3.5/3.5 IDA -- Atlantic

[WindRunner]

Just throwing it out there, but I think Ida's reached its peak for the near term (possibly peaked altogether?). Simply put, if it's struggling in this environment, it sure isn't going to get any easier as it progresses into the Gulf.

[brunota2003]

But, does the AF currently have a plane at Homestead?

No idea, but if not, would it be possible to land the plane for the current mission at Homestead?

only problem with that is that there would be no replacement crew there.

[Aric Dunn]

hey speak of the devil there is the vortex message..

MAX FL WIND 67 KT SW QUAD 16:41:10Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 148 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN
ACTUAL CENTER APPROX 4NM SE

like i said about 5 miles.

Also, look at how far away the max flight temp was from the flight center. 19 miles...that doesn't bode well for the system. There was also only 3C degrees of separation between the temps (17C outside, versus 20C in the center)...also not too good for strengthening.

good point ... clearly there is something structurally happening.. just have to wait and see i guess.... THe low in BOC maybe affecting the inflow in the NW side not fir sure yet but i see some evidence for that..

[Frank2]

The good news is that the model cluster is very tightly, er, clustered, so the confidence is pretty high that it'll traverse around the high and will be in a fairly cool and sheared Central Gulf in about two days, so as Steve Lyons (The Movie Channel, er, TWC) mentioned this morning, it will encounter some very hostile conditions as it moves further northward, so again that is some good news, though storm surge and heavy rain might still be a problem...

Frank

[Evil Jeremy]

Something to chew on:
At the 10AM advisory, Ida was at 17.9N and 84.1W.

In last night's 10PM discussion, she was forecast to be at 17.1N and 84.2W at 10AM today. She was .8N and .1E more than forecast.

In yesterday morning's 10AM discussion, she was forecast to be at 16.8N and 84.5W at 10AM today. She was 1.1N and .4E more than forecast.

I don't know if "E" is the correct way of writing what I am talking about, but you get my point lol.

[Frank2]

There's a military air show at Homestead ARB this weekend - not sure if it's open today for operational flights...

They could divert to MacDill AFB (or task a NOAA aircraft from MacDill, if an aircraft and crew are available) but that's another issue...

My guess is that they'll probably stick with what they have, since confidence is fairly high that this system will end up sheared in the Central Gulf in two days...

Frank

[tolakram]

So the wind shear is present, at least in some fashion. The NHC may be closer on the intensity forecast than we thought.

[HURAKAN]

A few hours ago

[Pearl River]

It looks like what is left of 96E is making it's presence felt on IDA.

[Aric Dunn]

So just did the speed of IDA from the two fixes...

its moving north at 10mph now..

[Aric Dunn]

So the wind shear is present, at least in some fashion. The NHC may be closer on the intensity forecast than we thought.

nhc did not call for more that 45kts... its clearly higher than that

[Evil Jeremy]

(The Movie Channel, er, TWC)

As simple of a reference that was, that just made my day lol.

[srainhoutx]

Another interesting view...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 2hr_04.gif

[Frank2]

My own concern is that it's Wilma all over again - I know the system and synoptic setup is somewhat different, but in some ways it's very similar - and I keep thinking about that hard right turn at ~26N that some models were showing just 24-36 hours ago...

It's deja vu all over again (I think that's what Yogi said)...