ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[chaser1]

Didn't see this posted yet. NOAA's 3-7 day Hazardous outlook indicating Tx/La threat but also heavy rain n the Appalachians so I would guess that would be from the Trough?

Could be the trough, but given the dates (8/5-8/6) am guessing perhaps 91L as an anticipated depression or minimal TS

[ROCK]

132hr

going into the BOC

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[ozonepete]

Bastardi on twitter:

@BigJoeBastardi
Convective blow up over Ernesto may be dry entrainment bursting, we will know tomorrow I have seen this many times, may not be what u think

do we have a SCAT pass that gets the whole system? little bird told me Ernesto has decoupled (ie the LLC and MLC are decoupled)....

Hey Rock, Although Ernesto will still pulse up and down periodically, it has slowed down and shear is lessening, so not only has it not decoupled at all but there's no evidence that it will.

[cheezyWXguy]

Bastardi on twitter:

@BigJoeBastardi
Convective blow up over Ernesto may be dry entrainment bursting, we will know tomorrow I have seen this many times, may not be what u think

do we have a SCAT pass that gets the whole system? little bird told me Ernesto has decoupled (ie the LLC and MLC are decoupled)....

I dont really see a whole lot to decouple. We obviously have an LLC, but the MLC is far from developed. All I see is a lot of bursts of convection still trying to arrange themselves at this point. Decoupling seems like it would be more of an issue when we have more persistent convection over the center and at least a primitive CDO type feature.

[Rgv20]

Forecast for BOC on Friday Morning

[South Texas Storms]

Further south than 18z and 12z runs?

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS setup wouldn't put this where the GFS puts it, this setup would put this near the panhandle of Florida not where the GFS has it

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[chaser1]

:uarrow: Further south than 18z and 12z runs?

Ok, all I've got to say is.... if 91L simply "fizzles", 90L never gets tagged with a name, and Ernesto chooses to seek a Belize Eco-Tour, than i'll never say another wise crack complaint about GFS's seemingly annual updates

[ROCK]

177 hr been sitting in the BOC for a day...



http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[bella_may]

total fail by the GFS.

[BigB0882]

Can someone tell me how to locate ridges on that GFS map. I never know what to look for!

[South Texas Storms]

Can someone tell me how to locate ridges on that GFS map. I never know what to look for!

The ridge is the purple and pink areas on that colored map.

[thetruesms]

Can someone tell me how to locate ridges on that GFS map. I never know what to look for!

Well, the most recently posted map shows both MSLP and 500 mb heights, so there are actually ridges at two levels that you can look for. An example of a surface ridge would be centered on that high over the open Atlantic, then follow the arced extensions of the isobars through Bermuda and towards NE Florida. The 500 mb heights are the colored fill, and these ridges are denoted by the purple/pink colors.

[Rgv20]

:uarrow: Further south than 18z and 12z runs?

Almost identical in location but the 0z is much stronger than the 12z run.

[BigB0882]

Thanks for the explanations on spotting ridges.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: Further south than 18z and 12z runs?

Almost identical in location but the 0z is much stronger than the 12z run.

Yeah I was just comparing images and noticed that. Where do you think this will eventually go? I'm thinking the HWRF seems like the most reasonable model right now (taking it near Cancus as a hurricane in about 5 days).

[Rgv20]

0zNOGAPS thru Wednesday Morning (108hrs) is identical to the track of the 0zGFS...

[AJC3]

Should be able to see the LLC pass by to the north on the Curacao radar...

http://www.meteo.an/SatRadarImages/Img_ ... i_Loop.asp

[ConvergenceZone]

I sure don't see the latest forecasts by the NHC indicating this to be a Mexico storm. I mean after 5 days, it would have to take quite a left turn to end up in Mexico... So I don't think they even believe that's going to happen.

[mcheer23]

00z UKMET....Not on the map?? That is probably it on the bottom part of the image heading toward central mexico

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... 4_0000.gif