ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blazess556]

latest vdm has closed eyewall with eye diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)

[GCANE]

Latest drop in the eye.

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest VDM says the eyewall is now closed with a 16 nm diameter. Maximum eye temp went up 1C from prior center fix also. These are all signs of continued organization.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 13:36Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2017
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:04:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°49'N 93°08'W (23.8167N 93.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 310 statute miles (498 km) to the ESE (118°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,292m (4,239ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the ENE (69°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 62kts (From the SSE at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) from the flight level center at 13:00:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 240° at 8kts (From the WSW at 9mph)

Source: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&product=vortex&storm=Harvey&mission=12&agency=AF&ob=08-24-130450-11-984-62%2862%29-55

[KWT]

latest vdm has closed eyewall with eye diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)

That has tightened up somewhat since the last VDM, which had it at 25 miles. Looks like the core is developing at a very rapid rate and I suspect winds will follow soon.

[txwatcher91]

A rapid pressure drop is likely to start this afternoon as the eye finishes developing and the structural changes complete. This went from a mess last night to nearly a cane in about 12 hours. By tonight we will be looking at a cat 2/3 cane and still deepening rapidly, imo. Cat 4/5 landfall looks very possible and residents in TX need to prepare or evacuate for such. I wouldn't be surprised to see it grow a lot in size today too, GFS and a few other models indicate it may.

[GCANE]

Already a 5C Core.


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 13:36Z

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)

[pcolaman]

latest vdm has closed eyewall with eye diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)

So it begins !!! I don't think Harvey will have time to go thru eye wall replacements at this point but rapidly growing and intensity increases over the next day

[1900hurricane]

I know we have recon but since Dvorak is a passion of mine worth posting....

24/1145 UTC 23.2N 93.4W T3.0/3.0 HARVEY -- Atlantic

SAB just adjusted to 3.5. They used curved banding, but it may not be far off from transitioning to an embedded type pattern.

TXNT24 KNES 241341
TCSNTL
CCB

A. 09L (HARVEY)

B. 24/1145Z

C. 23.7N

D. 93.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTION TO POSITION..FT..CI AND DT BASED ON 1041Z SSMIS
PASS. SYSTEM HAS SHOWN MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN MICROWAVE PRESENTATION
FROM EARLIER 0908Z PASS WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE THAT IS OPEN IN
EASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON NEW POSITION AND MICROWAVE PASS AM ABLE TO
OBTAIN 6 TENTHS WHITE BANDING FOR DT=3.5. MET REMAINS AT 3.0 BASED ON
RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND AND PT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/1041Z 23.6N 92.8W SSMIS


...RUMINSKI

*EDIT: heh, post 1900

[GeneratorPower]

That is not a 60mph TS.

[Ivanhater]

Last update an hour ago said a hurricane by Friday.....ummmm

[KWT]

That is not a 60mph TS.

Nothing from recon as of yet really justifies too much more, it IS still a 60mph TS right now, but clearly not going to be staying that way for long given its structure and the way the pressure is dropping away.

Hope the NHC really highlight the seriousness of the situation unfolding, its going to be needed.

[Hurrilurker]

The only good news is it looks like it could run out of water before it reaches its full potential. Traffic in Texas is about to become a nightmare.

[1900hurricane]

I apparently pissed off Harvey when I dissed its appearance last night. It's been stated before, but I'm amazed at how quickly Harvey has managed to build a core. The recent F-18 pass says it all really. Compare to the most recent pass I had when I went to sleep.

[pcolaman]

I'm really hoping that Harvey doesn't stall on the coast and continues to move. I really don't like the set up at all. Could be a major problem for Texas and SW Louisiana !

[JaxGator]

Wow That was fast! Waking up to a RI TS this morning is not what folks in Texas were expecting or wanted to see. Beautiful yet deadly closed eyewall on Microwave Imagery too. It didn't take long for it to establish its core from last night into this morning. Only a matter of time before this becomes a hurricane (good thing we have Recon in there now). For those in its path, please heed warnings issued by your local government and National Weather Service (NWS). And by the National Hurricane Center. Prayers for all.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/900718607629516802

[CrazyC83]

This could very well be Celia 2.0 that may be developing.

[KWT]

The only upshot from that microwave image posted above is the eyewall whilst complete is fairly patchy in places, but I'm sure that is going to fill in and strengthen over the next 6-12hrs.

Can't wait to see how high the NHC goes in this next forecast package, probably 90-100kts I'm guessing...

[northjaxpro]

The only good news is it looks like it could run out of water before it reaches its full potential. Traffic in Texas is about to become a nightmare.

Well, I hope you are correct. But, Harvey still has about at least 30 more hours over that warm bath water prior to making landfall. That is still sufficient enough time for Harvey to be an extremely intense tropical cyclone. at least to a Cat 4.

[GCANE]

Massive tower firing and wrapping from the east to the north