ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

VDM
Eye open to the south, circular, 36-nm wide

[GCANE]

ADT tags a MW Eye

Can you spell these out? I'm betting most people cannot remember, or know, all these abbreviations.

Eye identified by microwave (satellite radar) imaging analysis

[tolakram]

Live visible
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

[aspen]

Recon has shown that FL winds are having trouble fully mixing down, and there’s a region of increased winds on the east side of the storm. Either it’s a double wind maximum, or the wind field is very oblong.

[Steve]

Hey guys, I seriously know nothing and was just checking out this loop.

What is going on here?? To me, not knowing anything it looked like Delta formed a second/different center/eye

I realize that likely isnt possible. Could someone explain what Im looking at? Never tried posting a GIF so added the link also

https://gifyu.com/image/6Fdx

https://gifyu.com/image/6Fdx

Looks like the center was moving NW and refired convection. You usually see that with weaker storms where the centers follow or chase convection. Maybe it was just a new burst as the center moved

[GCANE]

Large jump in rain rate.
Recon now reporting 54 mm/hr.
Latent energy exchange kicking into high gear.

[TheStormExpert]

Delta doesn’t look too photogenic this morning, not that it ever did. Probably won’t intensify much more, if at all. Still will be a big surge producer and a wind maker, but if I’d had to guess a landfall intensity I’d go with anywhere from an 85mph Cat.1 to an 100mph Cat.2 in SW Louisiana. Fortunately it won’t be a Cat.4 like Laura was six weeks ago.

[aspen]

The extent of hurricane-force FL winds to the east could be...problematic. Those translate to TS winds at the surface and are extending the TS wind field, meaning more surge on the E/NE side.

[xironman]

Delta doesn’t look too photogenic this morning, not that it ever did. Probably won’t intensify much more, if at all. Still will be a big surge producer and a wind maker, but if I’d had to guess a landfall intensity I’d go with anywhere from an 85mph Cat.1 to an 100mph Cat.2 in SW Louisiana. Fortunately it won’t be a Cat.4 like Laura was six weeks ago.

That 36 nm eye could contract a bit and pick up the wind velocity. The meso on the north eyewall is pretty impressive, with lots of lightening.

[eastcoastFL]

Sharp pressure drop from the buoy in the BOC closest to delta




https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42055

[eastcoastFL]

Delta doesn’t look too photogenic this morning, not that it ever did. Probably won’t intensify much more, if at all. Still will be a big surge producer and a wind maker, but if I’d had to guess a landfall intensity I’d go with anywhere from an 85mph Cat.1 to an 100mph Cat.2 in SW Louisiana. Fortunately it won’t be a Cat.4 like Laura was six weeks ago.

Also glad it should be moving at a good pace and not leave so much rain behind like sally

[stormlover2013]

Delta doesn’t look too photogenic this morning, not that it ever did. Probably won’t intensify much more, if at all. Still will be a big surge producer and a wind maker, but if I’d had to guess a landfall intensity I’d go with anywhere from an 85mph Cat.1 to an 100mph Cat.2 in SW Louisiana. Fortunately it won’t be a Cat.4 like Laura was six weeks ago.

but it's wider so it will bring alot of damage to the coast and texas area will see 50-70 mph winds it looks likes

[wx98]

Recon suggests it may be up to 105 mph now.

[aspen]

This pass through the NE quadrant supports 90-95 kt maximum winds and a pressure of 966-968 mbar.

[mpic]

What is the confidence level for the turn keeping the eye away from Houston?

[cheezyWXguy]

This pass through the NE quadrant supports 90-95 kt maximum winds and a pressure of 966-968 mbar.

Makes sense. Definitely looking better on sat now

[kevin]

Latest recon passes showed 965 - 967 mbar central pressure and would be in-line with ~90 knots. I think 95 knots might also be reasonable, but I don't think NHC will do that just yet.

[Kazmit]

What is the confidence level for the turn keeping the eye away from Houston?

Very high.

[GCANE]

Increase in rain rate to 62 mm/hr.
On target for increasing latent energy transfer becoming predominant.

[mpic]

What is the confidence level for the turn keeping the eye away from Houston?

Very high.

Omg I hope so. Mobile home, 71 years old and 7 dogs
Edit: No ill will to those to the east.