Texas Winter 2022-2023

[TheProfessor]

I just calculated the snowfall on the 12z ICON, and it's extreme to say the least, with a 50:1 ratio from the Below Zero Temperatures.

My area has 10-12 inches
Enid: 28-32 inches
Tulsa: 21-24 inches
Springfield, MO: 15-18 inches

In parts of Kansas, a .8 inch QPF of snow with a 50:1 ratio is 40 inches
Some of the totals could be slightly inflated from the December 19th-20th system.

50-1 is probably too high of a ratio, snow ratios don't always improve with colder Temps. The more important thing would be the depth of the Dendritic Growth Zone. 2500 feet is usually around 12-1, 5000 feet or longer and you start talking about 20-1. I'd need to see a skew-t to know.

Here you go, it's from WeatherNerds. The DGZ collapses with the arrival of snow which I find unusual compared to a very large area before it arrives.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/icon_12_135_14019887_skewt_weathernerds.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/icon_12_135_14019887_skewt_weathernerds.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/icon_12_141_33978076_skewt_weathernerds.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/icon_12_141_33978076_skewt_weathernerds.png

Based off the 2nd sounding the DGZ would be between 600mb and 700mb so about 3.5k feet. Probably between 15-1 and 20-1

[Iceresistance]

50-1 is probably too high of a ratio, snow ratios don't always improve with colder Temps. The more important thing would be the depth of the Dendritic Growth Zone. 2500 feet is usually around 12-1, 5000 feet or longer and you start talking about 20-1. I'd need to see a skew-t to know.

Here you go, it's from WeatherNerds. The DGZ collapses with the arrival of snow which I find unusual compared to a very large area before it arrives.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/icon_12_135_14019887_skewt_weathernerds.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/icon_12_135_14019887_skewt_weathernerds.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/icon_12_141_33978076_skewt_weathernerds.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/icon_12_141_33978076_skewt_weathernerds.png

Based off the 2nd sounding the DGZ would be between 600mb and 700mb so about 3.5k feet. Probably between 15-1 and 20-1

Okay, big thanks, I will keep that in mind next time when I see Below Zero Temperatures with snow again.

[Iceresistance]

TSD on a different forum has reported Moderate Sleet in his location for 45 minutes.

[Iceresistance]

Another west shift on the 18z GFS!

[mpic]

The big question that will start getting press soon is whether ERCOT is ready or not. I'm not trusting that they are. We experienced on and off(mostly off) rolling blackouts in Feb 21. Based on you fine folks here, we were prepared as I got firewood days in advance. I did the same thing yesterday, adding another 1/4 chord to our inventory. We won't be caught off guard wanting for heat. Whatever happens with temps and precipitation happens. I'm just giddy it'll feel like Christmas this year instead of debating to wear shorts or not.

Propane heat with electronic ignition and on a water well. No electricity and I'm sunk. Good luck, my friend.

[SnowintheFalls]

Another west shift on the 18z GFS!

Heading in the right direction but how big a shift?

[Ntxw]

Another west shift on the 18z GFS!

Doesn't take much more for TX. Those further north probably watching for suppression now. 1060mb+ will drive things way south once models capture the real cold.

[HockeyTx82]

I feel like I'm watching Game 7 3rd OT of a Stanley Cup Final with some of these posts when I hit refresh.......

[Iceresistance]

Another west shift on the 18z GFS!

Heading in the right direction but how big a shift?

A little further to the west, won't take much now until NTX is in the ballgame for the snow. Tulsa gets HAMMERED!

[TheProfessor]

What a great GFS run and still enough for some southwest shifts here.

[Iceresistance]

It looks like that the 18z GFS is trying to reinforce the cold shots towards here.

I will have a gif that is a thing of beauty when the GFS is at a certain point here.

[Snowman65]

How is the Golden Triangle shaping up right now?

[ATXAG95]

Would love to know the impacts in the western Williamson County area

[Iceresistance]

+PNA Ridge is even weaker compared to 12z

[txtwister78]

Would love to know the impacts in the western Williamson County area

Right now looking dry but very cold (hard freezes/dangerous windchill readings) for that region (Thursday into Christmas weekend). Not an "official" forecast though. Just trending that direction.

[weatherdude1108]

Would love to know the impacts in the western Williamson County area

Right now looking dry but very cold (hard freezes/dangerous windchill readings) for that region (Thursday into Christmas weekend). Not an "official" forecast though. Just trending that direction.

Wrap the hose bibs (while letting drip) and insulating Sago trunks and crown kind of weather. Did that in Feb. 2021.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Are yall sure yall want this cold? Wxman57 warned all of yall last year. ill gladly take it from yall here in Georgia.

[Iceresistance]

Are yall sure yall want this cold? Wxman57 warned all of yall last year. ill gladly take it from yall here in Georgia.

You know that this cold has the potential if Heat Miser (Wxman57) is preparing to fly to Australia!

[Ntxw]

Here comes the -EPO! Probably some of the highest pressure readings many of us have seen since the 1980s in the coming days!

[Ntxw]

In case you were wondering the highest modern times prior was 2021's 1058mb over land in NW Canada just before the plunge.