ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

I see that the 18Z GFDL is very close to my track over the western tip of Cuba Friday evening and into the SE Gulf, turning north between 86-88W. Looks reasonable as that ridge may hold in north of Gustav until Friday afternoon. NHC should be shifting its track south of Cuba tonight and trending toward a similar track farther west and a good bit faster.

Yeah, I think the NHC didnt want to shift too much in one package but the next update will...

[Frank P]

General area of the center shows up quite in the IR loops, something that you don't see very often in a developing TS...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

edited AFTER FURTHER REVIEW ..

[KWT]

I see that the 18Z GFDL is very close to my track over the western tip of Cuba Friday evening and into the SE Gulf, turning north between 86-88W. Looks reasonable as that ridge may hold in north of Gustav until Friday afternoon. NHC should be shifting its track south of Cuba tonight and trending toward a similar track farther west and a good bit faster.

Yeah given the NHc are still north of most other models they will have to trend a little further south. The thing that is very interesting is that if it does take that bend back west it will travel over some of the most impressive heat content in the entire basin, if it has its inner core and little shear that is ingrediants for some rapid strengthening into a pretty powerful system I reckon.

[tolakram]

[jlauderdal]

Could Gustav pose a threat to the MS Gulf Coast down the road?

Let's hope not. BTW, the largest power distribution transformer manufacturer in the US was hit by ICE today and had 350 illegals detained....... not good news if the US gets hit by a major hurricane. Howard Industries (transformer company) built over 100,000 emergency units after Katrina.

That is rather an inflammatory statement and totally off-topic-I hope we continue to see weather-related professionalism here and not so much about football games, gas prices and the like. I guess I better duck now lol......

well there is a connection between football games and gas prices and the weather, now lets get back on topic

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am seeing a strong ring of convection over the center, I give a guesstimate
of 70 mph based on the latest imagery (posted several pages back).

NHC's 8 PM advisory has it at 60 mph.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2344.shtml

[SWFLA_CANE]

I see that the 18Z GFDL is very close to my track over the western tip of Cuba Friday evening and into the SE Gulf, turning north between 86-88W. Looks reasonable as that ridge may hold in north of Gustav until Friday afternoon. NHC should be shifting its track south of Cuba tonight and trending toward a similar track farther west and a good bit faster.

Any chance this takes a Wilma type track? (not talking about strength, strictly track)

[fci]

I see that the 18Z GFDL is very close to my track over the western tip of Cuba Friday evening and into the SE Gulf, turning north between 86-88W. Looks reasonable as that ridge may hold in north of Gustav until Friday afternoon. NHC should be shifting its track south of Cuba tonight and trending toward a similar track farther west and a good bit faster.

Yeah, I think the NHC didnt want to shift too much in one package but the next update will...

EXACTLY!!!!!

The NHC does not like to make major track changes from forecast to forecast.
The change at 5 PM was pretty big (see the pages and pages and pages of arguements in this thread for "how" big a change it was. I personally go with AFM's measurements since he knows what the heck he is talking about compared to some.... ) and went left.
Since most models and some Pro Mets show a track SOUTH of Cuba, I suspect that the NHC will eventually follow suit and show this track and the storm going over Western Cuba and into the SE Gulf pretty far west of The Keys.
Of course, if the initial track in the forecast period is significantly different than forecasted or the models en masse radically change, then this may not happen.
I expect, based on my experience in watching the NHC, that the forecast tracks will continue to go more and more to the left.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[O Town]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That image shows an eye feature and accompanying burst.
Very high oceanic heat content.

[Praxus]

HWRF has it as a cat 4 or 5 in the gulf and GFDL as a cat 3 in the gulf so far

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

:uarrow: That image shows an explosive burst over the center, I think
that may put this at hurricane status by 11 pm.

I think its very close to hurricane strength. But the nhc will likely wait intil recon gets out there around 1am.

[cheezyWXguy]

HWRF has it as a cat 5 in the gulf and GFDL as a cat 3 in the gulf so far

gfdl was at 120kt i think....140 mph...but WOW hwrf cat 5?

[Scorpion]

I think it can get to be a strong Cat 2 around landfall.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Also, WHY does the forward motion slow down so much beyond
day 3 in NHC's latest forecast???


I have asked this 3 times, but got no answer.

[KWT]

Yep eye is re-developing from inside the deep convection like I thought it might do. Current motion to me looks around 310 still as it has been for most of the day. Eyewall a little weak on the eastern side but is pretty strong on that western side.

[Weatherfreak000]

I see that the 18Z GFDL is very close to my track over the western tip of Cuba Friday evening and into the SE Gulf, turning north between 86-88W. Looks reasonable as that ridge may hold in north of Gustav until Friday afternoon. NHC should be shifting its track south of Cuba tonight and trending toward a similar track farther west and a good bit faster.

Do you have any clue what the ridge may do when it's in the SE Gulf?

[Praxus]

[cheezyWXguy]

I think it can get to be a strong Cat 2 around landfall.

Landfall where? If you mean haiti, its possible, but it needs deep convection to wrap over the ne quad. That looks to be in progress now, and I expect at least a cat 1 by haiti landfall. Once south of Cuba or in the gulf, this could be a major, assuming it continues to strengthen.

[mattpetre]

I'm still going out on a limb to say it will not make landfall on the limb of Haiti...

Nope. Watch it track across Haiti.

OK, I'm back 3 hrs later and sticking to my guns that it is not going to officially make landfall in Haiti, although they will see much weather from it and are already. Wednesday is going to be the truly "telling" day for Gustav... I'll hold off on much more prognosticating until then.