ATL: IKE Discussion

[JPmia]

NHC's 11pm end forecast point:http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=26.0N++80.0W&num=10&ie=UTF8&ll=26.019766,-80.000038&spn=0.57262,1.235962&t=h&z=10

I'm wondering what the SURGE IMPACT would be to this coastline and area - and inland - in the event the track holds true. This is Ft Lauderdale, just north of the coordinates posted above.

Well I live directly west of their near I-595 and I-95....those homes (the most expensive in Ft. Lauderdale) would be under a couple of feet of water in a Cat3/4/5 storm...of course they are required to evacuate. Broward's storm surge maps are online:

http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, the surge along the beaches would be relatively minimal; however, large waves would likely lead to erosion and the collapse of structures on the barrier islands. We observed this phenomenon with the 1926, 1928, and 1947 September TCs, as well as Frances and Jeanne in 2004. It is noted that the 1926 Miami hurricane produced a water mark (documented water level) of 12.6 feet in the vicinity of the Bahia Mar Yacht Club, which is situated north of Port Everglades at the location indicated by Ixolib's satellite imagery. Breaking waves likely added significant height to a relatively minimal surge.

Port Everglades statistics (near Fort Lauderdale):

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~cannon/tr8203nc/pevergla/graphics/tab19-5.gif

Paper:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~cannon/tr8203nc/pevergla/text/sect3.htm

Note that this post pertains to Broward County (in the vicinity of Fort Lauderdale); the most significant actual storm surges occur along Biscayne/Florida Bay in SE FL, while large waves (as opposed to significant surge) impacts the barrier islands of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. Erosion is a MUCH more significant threat; unlike wind, it could lead to the collapse of post-Andrew and pre-'70s/'80s structures. There is a reason why the Bonnet House was constructed on the most elevated portion of Fort Lauderdale's barrier island...

Feel free to browse the Navy document above...

[curtadams]

Remember with Gustav the models were closely clustered. With Ike the spread is wide. And at almost the same time the models and the NHC were nailing Gustav, they were pretty clueless with Hanna, which has frequently done things nobody predicted (especially with all those early center relocations.)

[MiamiensisWx]

from Miami Beach all the way to Jupiter Island - nothing but high rise condos and mansions. some of the most valuable real estate in the world . . . and just on the other side of the intracoastal is the Mia-FtLaud-WPB metro area. Outside of the DC-Baltimore-Philly-NYC-Boston cooridor it is the most heavyily populated stretch of coastline on the east coast.

A storm like Andrew approaching from due west limits the amount of territory on the coastline to be effected by the core/eyewall. Now a storm approaching on an angle currently projected for Ike could in theory put that whole section of coastline in the eyewall of a major - just about a worst case scenario

I HIGHLY doubt the vast majority of post-Andrew office buildings and high rises would collapse from winds.

Erosion from large waves is the true threat along the barrier islands.

See 1926 as Case A:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/Miami_hurricane.html

Aerial photograph of Miami Beach shows collapsed structures because of waves and associated erosion:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/miami_beach2.jpg

[ConvergenceZone]

5day forecast point landfall in Miami

But its prudent to focus on the cone and not the line this far out.

I agree gator. The key is this part of the NHC discussion

"The track guidance is in two distinct branches...the GFS...NOGAPS...and UKMET show the
turn occurring over the Bahamas....while the HWRF...GFDL...and ECMWF take Ike over Cuba or The Straits of Florida. Until it become clear as to which one of these solutions will prevail, the official forecast remains between them...... "

so basically they are saying is that the track itself doesn't mean that the NHC thinks it will strike the Miami area, all it means is that they have 2 sets of models, and decided to just split the difference between them. If it becomes clear that this is going out to sea, then you'll probably see a dramatic shift to the right, or vice versa if the other models prevail...Basically the NHC doesn't know either where it's going to go at this point..... I bring this up because I'm sure there are people looking at the graphic thinking, "oh my god, the NHC has it going to the Miami area"....

[Chigger_Lopez]

I was considering past hurricanes from the East that I have gone thru, Jeanne and Frances and noted that thankfully we did get a visit from the eye in both storms so to not feel the effects those to the North of us received. I ventured a guess that the worst scenario for us would be a storm that hit Broward Co. moving NNW. Anyone agree with this thought process. Would it not be better to live in S. Miami than WPB with the storms current forecast. I

[Just Joshing You]

That's SCARY to look at Gustav's animation; they nailed the 5 day forecast the very first landfall point to within mere miles. Hope the same doesn't come true for Ike.

[jhpigott]

from Miami Beach all the way to Jupiter Island - nothing but high rise condos and mansions. some of the most valuable real estate in the world . . . and just on the other side of the intracoastal is the Mia-FtLaud-WPB metro area. Outside of the DC-Baltimore-Philly-NYC-Boston cooridor it is the most heavyily populated stretch of coastline on the east coast.

A storm like Andrew approaching from due west limits the amount of territory on the coastline to be effected by the core/eyewall. Now a storm approaching on an angle currently projected for Ike could in theory put that whole section of coastline in the eyewall of a major - just about a worst case scenario

I HIGHLY doubt the vast majority of post-Andrew office buildings and high rises would collapse from winds.

no, you are probably right (unless Ike decides to visit our shoreline as a cat 5), but it would likely gut many of them. I'm sure you recall what Wilma did with her cat 1 winds to a number of the high rises in Mia and Ft. Lauderdale.

[eastcoastFL]

ike is starting to scare the bleep out of me!

[StrategyFreak]

Just a quick question, is the storm being negatively impacted from the shear? It looks like the northwestern side is looking ragged and the inner convection is being exposed.

[Windy]

you could say that again....record damage if that track verified, have you seen the homes on the intra coastal? i have never seen such a concentration of millionaire's in my life.

Good luck ever getting storm insurance again for the next 50 years in south Florida if Ike visits at full strength.

[ConvergenceZone]

gatorcane, my geography is bad, what part of Florida are you in? are you on the west coast? east coast? inland?...just wondering if you are in the path at all....

[caneseddy]

from Miami Beach all the way to Jupiter Island - nothing but high rise condos and mansions. some of the most valuable real estate in the world . . . and just on the other side of the intracoastal is the Mia-FtLaud-WPB metro area. Outside of the DC-Baltimore-Philly-NYC-Boston cooridor it is the most heavyily populated stretch of coastline on the east coast.

A storm like Andrew approaching from due west limits the amount of territory on the coastline to be effected by the core/eyewall. Now a storm approaching on an angle currently projected for Ike could in theory put that whole section of coastline in the eyewall of a major - just about a worst case scenario

I HIGHLY doubt the vast majority of post-Andrew office buildings and high rises would collapse from winds.

I also concur with MiamiensisWx. What would happen with those high rises post Andrew if Ike did what it was supposed to do would be akin to what Wilma did to downtown Miami and Ft. Lauderdale where windows were blown out and structural damage, but high-rise collapse is unlikely, although downtown Miami has some old building built pre-Andrew (the Macy's building, the original courthouse, etc)

If the track is perfect (and we know it probably won't be), along that US-1 corridor around Hollywood going north has a lot of old structures that have been there pre-Andrew as well as a lot of trailer parks.

If this storm strengthens and takes the track it is supposed to do, this could rival Andrew, if not exceed it as the worse hurricane to hit South Florida.

[Just Joshing You]

Doesn't Trump have some $200,000,000 USD house down there? as well as many other homes in excess of $100,000,000 USD?

[eastcoastFL]

gatorcane is in western palm beach county in the se coast

[eastcoastFL]

Trump sold the big one last month

[Ed Mahmoud]

This sounds completely weird, and has never happened in the history of Western Civilization to my knowledge, but if Ike is as far South as Cuba, and misses the weakness passing by, if you ignore the dip in the 588 dm height line caused by where the 18Z GFS sees Ike, and draw it parallel to the others to its North, then, while the Westerlies would,, of course, protect SE Texas, Ike could cruise West or even West-Southwest towards Mexico. This is pure conjecture, thrown out to stimulate discussion. I wouldn't actually be at all nervous if I lived in Tampico.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Someone asked for this - I had it already done.

The first pic is the NHC center forecast point at 11pm. Between Pembroke and Hollywood blvd - probably landfalling just north of Hollywood, maybe up to Stirling.




The second is the northern and southern extent of the *eyewall* based on IR imagery (I used avg of AVN and shortwave) - It turned out to be quite a bit smaller than the NHC forecast wind radii. I found the eye to have a diameter of 0.6 degrees latitude = 36nm = 41.4 miles. THe google earth ruler verifies this distance. It seems very big to me. Kendall to Deerfield in the eye!



The last is the extent of the tropical storm force winds. It looks to extend from south of the keys (even key west) up past port st. lucie.



I am not able to figure out quickly how to transpose an actual AVN or IR image onto that point, perhaps someone with better skills?

This shows how Ike could effect SFL if it stayed exactly the same as it is now - 5 days from now, and hit that 120h point exactly.



Thanks to ImageShack for Free Image Hosting

[MiamiensisWx]

I also concur with MiamiensisWx. What would happen with those high rises post Andrew if Ike did what it was supposed to do would be akin to what Wilma did to downtown Miami and Ft. Lauderdale where windows were blown out and structural damage, but high-rise collapse is unlikely, although downtown Miami has some old building built pre-Andrew (the Macy's building, the original courthouse, etc)

If the track is perfect (and we know it probably won't be), along that US-1 corridor around Hollywood going north has a lot of old structures that have been there pre-Andrew as well as a lot of trailer parks.

If this storm strengthens and takes the track it is supposed to do, this could rival Andrew, if not exceed it as the worse hurricane to hit South Florida.

Many pre-'70s/'80s structures (especially historical buildings) would likely fare very well, as opposed to pre-Andrew buildings that were constructed and erected in the 1970s/1980s (i.e. commercial outlets, residences, etc.).

See this thread for an interesting perspective:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102713

[jinftl]

I agree that a landfall in Broward could effect the largest number of South Florida residents overall....possibly sending hurricane force winds from Delray/Boca to Downtown Miami/South Beach. What concerns me is that other than South Dade during Andrew, there is alot of pre-Andrew construction in North Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties that has never been truly tested by a major hurricane.

If Wilma is any indication of the damage potential....she caused over $20 billion in damages, with the bulk in South Florida, with sustained winds in the Cat1/low Cat2 range. Granted her wind field was huge, but a major 'cane hitting in Broward with even an average size wind field could probably do $80 billion or more in damage.

from Miami Beach all the way to Jupiter Island - nothing but high rise condos and mansions. some of the most valuable real estate in the world . . . and just on the other side of the intracoastal is the Mia-FtLaud-WPB metro area. Outside of the DC-Baltimore-Philly-NYC-Boston cooridor it is the most heavyily populated stretch of coastline on the east coast.

A storm like Andrew approaching from due west limits the amount of territory on the coastline to be effected by the core/eyewall. Now a storm approaching on an angle currently projected for Ike could in theory put that whole section of coastline in the eyewall of a major - just about a worst case scenario

I HIGHLY doubt the vast majority of post-Andrew office buildings and high rises would collapse from winds.

I also concur with MiamiensisWx. What would happen with those high rises post Andrew if Ike did what it was supposed to do would be akin to what Wilma did to downtown Miami and Ft. Lauderdale where windows were blown out and structural damage, but high-rise collapse is unlikely, although downtown Miami has some old building built pre-Andrew (the Macy's building, the original courthouse, etc)

If the track is perfect (and we know it probably won't be), along that US-1 corridor around Hollywood going north has a lot of old structures that have been there pre-Andrew as well as a lot of trailer parks.

If this storm strengthens and takes the track it is supposed to do, this could rival Andrew, if not exceed it as the worse hurricane to hit South Florida.