ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[artist]

I love this loop with the with the changing NHC track with it -

(watch the changing purple, lavender?? line)

[artist]

it has definitely been running east of their track.

[gatorcane]

Well she is becoming a very large and sprawled out system, as I expected. What a monster in the NW Caribbean.

I also see that she is already passing the 00Z forecast point and heading North still. When is the turn NW supposed to happen?

[Evil Jeremy]

it has definitely been running east of their track.

Old news lol. Really though, as gatorcane said, when is this NW turn going to happen? Hell, is it going to happen?

[gatorcane]

it has definitely been running east of their track.

Old news lol. Really though, as gatorcane said, when is this NW turn going to happen? Hell, is it going to happen?

Looks like she is beelining for the Western tip of Cuba and Isle of Youth now.

Here is the VIS I'm looking at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[bahamaswx]

Would've probably been a major if not for running into land.

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I believe the center is where the NHC has it positioned, but there is a some kind of spin to the ENE of that position (big circle).

That little circle and big circle seem to be merging into one large potential center when I look at the latest VIS floater loop from NHC. Anybody see what I mean? I posted the link above.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the cancun radar showing the western "eye wall" and the cuban radar showing the northern part .. I ask that not everyone go to the cuban radar site as it has crashed many times before but rather let some one on here post the loops every hours or so oh and save the loop and host it ..

Cancun : here is the animator... http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70



cuban radar with the northern part of the circ on far bottom

nice structure so far.. at least on radar..

[PTrackerLA]

The CDO is really expanding right now, could still be intensifying.

[ericinmia]

Great words of wisdom on the Cuban Radar sites....

Over the years i've wished they would get better hosting and service. Thanks for posting the loop....
-Eric

[Evil Jeremy]

So, full advisory coming up, what changes do you all think the NHC will make to the cone?

[ericinmia]

So, full advisory coming up, what changes do you all think the NHC will make to the cone?

I would wager that they would stick with the model mean and wait for more information from the next hunter. They may hint at some of the changes that appear to be going on structurally within the storm though... (and the surrounding environment)
-Eric

[gatorcane]

Yeah NHC will just go with the models, not much change probably. Anyway, can't help but see how the XTRAP is nearly due north but all of the models have her going NW or even NW/WNW.

[CourierPR]

Gatorcane, I see that swirl east of the center. What's up with that?

[cycloneye]

As you can see,the squadron will be in full force dealing with Ida in the next couple of days.That includes the gulfstream jet to look at the upper enviroment.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 071500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST SAT 07 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-163

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM IDA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/1800Z,09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0411A IDA
C. 08/1500Z
D. 21.0N 86.0W
E. 08/1700Z TO 09/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0511A IDA
C. 08/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 24,000 TO 33,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 09/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0611A IDA
C. 09/0330Z
D. 22.8N 87.2W
E. 09/0500Z TO 09/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2.SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AT 10/0000Z.

3. REMARKS:
A. A RESOURCE PERMITTING FIX AT 08/1200Z.
B. P-3 RESEARCH MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS BEGINNING
AT 08/2000Z.

[deltadog03]

I think that is the LLC what yall are seeing just east of the big ball of storms. They are clearly not stacked, but I would expect them too soon. Overall sat. presentation is not bad, I think we are just reorganizing.

[Aric Dunn]

All i can say is that the NHC will likely just shift there track farther east .... and hopefully follow the only two models that have doing well with it thus far.. gfdl and hwrf..

[jinftl]

I am surprised Cuba has not posted a hurricane watch for the extreme western tip of the island....unless a nw movement commences soon, Ida is likely to pass thru the Yucatan Channel, quite possibly closer to Cuba than the Yucatan, and with Cuba on the 'dirty side' or the storm.

[Evil Jeremy]

What the NHC needs to do is start toning down a westward bend in the near future. It has not happened yet. For the past couple of days, since it made landfall pretty much, Ida has been east of all the NHC forecasts. They should think about that.