ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Jevo]

hmmm, this looks like the 06Z of the all powerful NAVGEM run....

Did someone say NAVGEM... O Hai!

12z NAVGEM Initialized

[JTE50]

I wonder if this holds the record for fasted TC in the deep tropics.. really 29 mph... thats type of pace you find after a tc gets pickup and out to sea..

maybe, just for comparison Hurricane Dean was moving through the same area at 25mph on August 17th 2007.

[Stormlover2012]

Heck that model has been the best lol lol

[Aric Dunn]

I know what happened.. the gfs now no longer weakens the ridge enough to alow her to get out of the carrib. check out the ridge north of her from the 6z to now also note the upper low in the gulf that causes the weakness no longer there at the 12z... thrown this run out.. that upper low over northern bahamas now still quite prevalent.



6z


is there any possible way that this storm could ride the north coast of the Dominican Republic and still

12z

is there any possible way or any chance I should say that this storm a skirt in northern code of the Dominican Republic and still stay strong and strengthening come my way

IT can at the least move over the far right part of DR..

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091609
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 36 20130709
160100 1455N 06235W 9697 00380 0129 +225 +191 048036 038 032 000 00
160130 1454N 06234W 9700 00377 0128 +225 +192 049037 038 032 000 00
160200 1453N 06233W 9700 00377 0127 +224 +194 050038 038 033 000 00
160230 1451N 06232W 9699 00380 0128 +221 +197 051038 039 035 000 00
160300 1450N 06230W 9700 00378 0125 +223 +197 053040 041 035 001 00
160330 1449N 06229W 9700 00373 0124 +225 +195 055040 041 034 000 00
160400 1448N 06228W 9692 00383 0123 +223 +197 059041 044 033 001 00
160430 1447N 06227W 9688 00386 0124 +222 +199 056040 043 033 000 00
160500 1446N 06226W 9703 00370 0123 +222 +201 055041 044 033 001 00
160530 1445N 06225W 9710 00364 0122 +221 +203 056041 043 034 001 00
160600 1444N 06224W 9697 00374 0120 +219 +207 050041 043 034 000 00
160630 1443N 06223W 9701 00369 0121 +222 +206 053040 042 036 000 00
160700 1442N 06222W 9704 00366 0119 +225 +203 054039 042 038 001 00
160730 1441N 06221W 9698 00369 0116 +225 +202 053036 037 036 001 00
160800 1440N 06220W 9699 00367 0114 +225 +203 051034 035 035 002 00
160830 1439N 06219W 9697 00367 0111 +224 +203 048032 034 034 001 00
160900 1438N 06218W 9694 00368 0111 +222 +206 042031 032 032 000 00
160930 1437N 06217W 9705 00356 0110 +221 +201 038032 034 031 000 03
161000 1435N 06216W 9698 00362 0108 +220 +201 037032 033 032 001 00
161030 1434N 06215W 9695 00364 0108 +219 +205 034034 035 033 000 03
$$

[floridasun78]

ok i gfdl i see it go through middle of Dominican Republic not sure how can make it through it still be tropical system

[Weatherboy1]

Yes we have definitely seen a fair number of these fast runners over the last several years. Not sure if Chantal is the fastest but must be close. If she holds together and slows in the next day or so she may be able to get up to cane status before hispanola in my opinion

[Jevo]

12z NAVGEM +24

[gatorcane]

Well with the GFS not being consistent from run to run and ECMWF not even picking up this system, combined with possible land interaction it must be certainly more difficult for the NHC to forecast this one since those are normally the two most reliable models they use in their forecasts.

The 12Z GFS shifted quite a bit south and don't normally see the GFS shift this much between runs in the short-term forecast for systems.

It certainly seems that Chantal isn't gaining much latitude today and maybe the latest GFS run is picking up on that.

[artist]

[Weatherboy1]

Some pretty deep convection firing in the last frame or two as well..

[Janie2006]

That's the $1,000,000 question in my mind: Hispanola. Which part does Chantal affect and how fast is she moving? It could indeed prove to be the graveyard of yet another storm.

[tropicwatch]

ok i gfdl i see it go through middle of Dominican Republic not sure how can make it through it still be tropical system

If it is still moving quickly at that time, it won't be over the DR for very long. This would help it keep its tropical characteristics.

[Jevo]

12z NAVGEM +48 Misses DR to the south... Over E Cuba

[ROCK]

thanks Jevo for your model posting.. ..I actually like the NAVGEM now that it has a new name....

[torrea40]

Rest in Peace....Chantal

Chantal is dead?

No, but I believe she already reached the highest strength of her life.

At this moment it's very impressive .....

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091619
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 37 20130709
161100 1434N 06214W 9698 00359 0106 +209 +207 031033 035 034 001 01
161130 1433N 06212W 9700 00356 //// +200 //// 023030 031 035 001 01
161200 1432N 06211W 9700 00352 0100 +209 //// 022030 031 032 000 01
161230 1432N 06209W 9693 00353 //// +207 //// 018030 032 031 001 01
161300 1431N 06208W 9696 00345 0086 +211 //// 010026 030 031 001 05
161330 1431N 06206W 9698 00336 0079 +217 +216 002019 024 031 000 03
161400 1431N 06205W 9700 00329 0073 +222 +218 349013 017 031 001 00
161430 1431N 06203W 9696 00330 0069 +221 +220 320010 013 032 001 01
161500 1432N 06202W 9698 00319 0059 +226 +226 261005 008 028 001 01
161530 1433N 06201W 9697 00316 0053 +231 +226 181008 011 021 001 00
161600 1435N 06200W 9700 00308 0048 +233 +226 161015 020 022 002 03
161630 1435N 06159W 9695 00316 0048 +237 +227 152028 033 038 001 03
161700 1434N 06158W 9700 00318 0059 +233 +224 168033 034 039 002 00
161730 1434N 06157W 9695 00334 0071 +231 +220 168032 033 038 002 00
161800 1433N 06156W 9697 00340 0081 +225 +216 162031 031 036 004 00
161830 1432N 06155W 9698 00345 0089 +219 +216 161028 031 037 006 00
161900 1431N 06155W 9703 00346 0099 +213 +213 157026 027 043 033 03
161930 1430N 06154W 9701 00350 0103 +212 +212 159023 027 053 045 00
162000 1429N 06153W 9702 00357 0109 +212 +212 167026 029 051 047 00
162030 1428N 06152W 9699 00363 0115 +209 +209 172027 029 051 048 00

[Dave]

Thanks Jeremy & Artist for taking this one today, I had family things I had to do this morning no choice. I'll be on the one tonight.

no problem, Dave.

I can break you now if you want? Just sitting here catching up on all the info.

[Jevo]

thanks Jevo for your model posting.. ..I actually like the NAVGEM now that it has a new name....

It's sad that all of the models I grew up using are being replaced/retired... NOGAPS, GFDL, UKMET... These kids don't know how good they have it. We used to use the AVN, and we liked it dangit.

[artist]