ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This storm looks pretty awful. Looks like it just ran into brick wall. Im leaning with what hammy posted earlier regardless what models show. Could very well be an open wave come tomorrow morning.

[psyclone]

This storm looks pretty awful. Looks like it just ran into brick wall. Im leaning with what hammy posted earlier regardless what models show. Could very well be an open wave come tomorrow morning.

That potential has always been on the table but this thing keeps surviving...so far.

[stormhunter7]

Based on the data from Nexrad and the AF Recon data.. i think and believe the old center is dissipating and a new one has formed to the north along southern coast of PR. We really want know until recon makes a pass up there (if they have the fuel) and see what this vortex on radar is that is rolling to the due west off the cost of Puerto Rico.

[galaxy401]

At this point there is probably a game going on with Erika named "Spot the Center!" Giant circus act the storm is throwing.

[Hurricaneman]

At this point there is probably a game going on with Erika named "Spot the Center!" Giant circus act the storm is throwing.

Honestly with this poor organization this IMO is just a tropical wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SouthFLTropics]

I just looked at the RGB satellite imagery and if you look real close
you can see the center south of St. Croix and it appears to headed off WNW towards PR. The vort showing on San Juan radar is just cyclonic turning around the larger gyre. Center is right where recon pegged it.

[Recurve]

At this point there is probably a game going on with Erika named "Spot the Center!" Giant circus act the storm is throwing.

Honestly with this poor organization this IMO is just a tropical wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Beg to differ. It's not.

[hurricanedude]

tell the people in St Croix its a wave...60+ mph gusts.....strong wave indeed

[HurriGuy]

Lots of west wind being found

[AutoPenalti]

At this point there is probably a game going on with Erika named "Spot the Center!" Giant circus act the storm is throwing.

Honestly with this poor organization this IMO is just a tropical wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

As long as there is some sort of closed circulation, NHC will still classify it as a T.D. or T.S.

[SouthFLTropics]

At this point there is probably a game going on with Erika named "Spot the Center!" Giant circus act the storm is throwing.

Honestly with this poor organization this IMO is just a tropical wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

We're getting VDM's from recon so it is definitely still closed off at the surface.

[CrazyC83]

The VDM had a 1011 pressure in the remnant center...I doubt there is a surface center there, even if there is one at 10,000 feet. The surface data suggests that St. Croix just missed a surface LLC though.

[hurricanedude]

not a wave..not a TD its a storm...for the ones who doubt it well.....thats why you arent employed at the NHC...LOL J/K folks

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at it now it seems to be the center is where Dvorak put it between the convective areas

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[abajan]

tell the people in St Croix its a wave...60+ mph gusts.....strong wave indeed

Just FYI, we had a TW affect Barbados back in the mid 1980s with winds that strong.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at it now it seems to be the center is where Dvorak put it between the convective areas

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

+1...agreed

[Hammy]

This storm looks pretty awful. Looks like it just ran into brick wall. Im leaning with what hammy posted earlier regardless what models show. Could very well be an open wave come tomorrow morning.

My post was more that the shear would keep it in check long enough to prevent a turn until it reaches DR, not that the shear itself would kill it. Were there no land to it's north I would have no doubt about the model intensities, it's just a question of will it be shredded by land before it can make it to better conditions since the lack of intensification is keeping it on a westward track.

[hurricanedude]

point is this isnt a wave.....

[HurriGuy]

If that truly is the main vortex south of PR, then I wish recon would hit that up

[Hurricaneman]

If that truly is the main vortex south of PR, then I wish recon would hit that up

probably just an eddy at this point and probably will fade

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products