Texas Winter 2025-2026

[wxman22]

It’s nice to see a low of 22 in the forecast Saturday night. It will also be interesting to see if the mesoscale models pick up on any flurries once their in range of the trough this weekend. Sometimes these sneaky setups can produce surprises.

[Sambucol2024]

Just my opinion and uneducated one at that!

Aren't these model runs about the cold air mass too far out in time to be taken as gospel? I know hurricane models this far out always change or just go back and forth. Seems to me the best thing is to just watch the runs and see how they go until we get closer, maybe 5 days, before we throw in the towel.

[wxman22]

Not set in stone yet, but this will probably be my last winter in Texas. It would be nice for it to go out in a “bang” lol. As I am likely moving to the Ohio Valley late Summer this year.

Congrats! I always dream about moving back to Kansas, but it's likely a decade away. We just bought a swim spa after years of consideration to try to make summers more enjoyable/help my wife exercise who can't be in the heat much (gets heat rashes). I really miss that small town Kansas charm. No offense to the small towns in Texas, but most just look dead unless it's Fredericksburg, Roanoke etc. Lots of the small towns in Kansas have a lot of charm and are still alive. I am not a fan of the city life, but we are here due to jobs. What I teach (journalism) just can't really be done well in most small towns unless I want to teach mostly English all day...no thanks on that. So here we are. I love North Texas most of the time. I would miss good Mexican food.

But, I pray your move is a great one and you enjoy the change.

Aww Thank you! I will be back to visit family, but I will miss Texas. There’s nothing like it!

[wxman57]

Well, 12Z EC says maybe a freeze across Texas by the 28th-29th instead of the 25th-26th. No precip. Coldest air moves east rather than south. Only a brief period of cross-Polar flow around the 24th-25th. Just a quick shot of freezing temps by the 28th. Too far out for any confidence Looks like my walls will hold.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The Euro just repeatedly dumps the arctic into the lower 48. Just not lining up well with this pattern.

[wxman57]

Not set in stone yet, but this will probably be my last winter in Texas. It would be nice for it to go out in a “bang” lol. As I am likely moving to the Ohio Valley late Summer this year.

Leaving Texas for work? Family? Want to see snow occasionally? No complaining about the all the cold and/or snow once you move.

[wxman22]

Not set in stone yet, but this will probably be my last winter in Texas. It would be nice for it to go out in a “bang” lol. As I am likely moving to the Ohio Valley late Summer this year.

Leaving Texas for work? Family? Want to see snow occasionally? No complaining about the all the cold and/or snow once you move.

LOL it’s for work. But I won’t lie that the cold and snow is also intriguing.

[txtwister78]

I think folks know that watching these model runs daily will cause roller-coaster reactions which is why it's best to temper daily expectations for the medium/long range especially with these model track records beyond the 5 day window.

What I would say is the EPO is tanking and so signs are there is going to be some significant cold late month within the United States. The million dollar question as has been the case throughout this winter is will we get a cooperative PNA to help usher that south into Texas or will we continue to see this persistent NW flow pattern dominate where most of it continues to get shoved eastward?

[rwfromkansas]

I think folks know that watching these model runs daily will cause roller-coaster reactions which is why it's best to temper daily expectations for the medium/long range especially with these model track records beyond the 5 day window.

What I would say is the EPO is tanking and so signs are there is going to be some significant cold late month within the United States. The million dollar question as has been the case throughout this winter is will we get a cooperative PNA to help usher that south into Texas or will we continue to see this persistent NW flow pattern dominate where most of it continues to get shoved eastward?

I guess I thought the -EPO likely helps make it focused on the central and east rather than just the east, but I guess I didn't understand that well. It seems like that +PNA can still harm us.

[Stratton23]

oh the PNA can definitely hurt us despite a - EPO, i still think the cold should be more central based as P7 favors that , its probably just that their is so much cold air in central canada on the ensembles and even the euro, they just cant handle it as soon as it starts bleeding south, ensembles dont even have much of a signal for a + PNA, looks more neutral/ - based on the current teleconnection charts

[txtwister78]

I think folks know that watching these model runs daily will cause roller-coaster reactions which is why it's best to temper daily expectations for the medium/long range especially with these model track records beyond the 5 day window.

What I would say is the EPO is tanking and so signs are there is going to be some significant cold late month within the United States. The million dollar question as has been the case throughout this winter is will we get a cooperative PNA to help usher that south into Texas or will we continue to see this persistent NW flow pattern dominate where most of it continues to get shoved eastward?

I guess I thought the -EPO likely helps make it focused on the central and east rather than just the east, but I guess I didn't understand that well. It seems like that +PNA can still harm us.

It does regarding the EPO however how far south that cold air can make it within our region relative to how much ridging we see across the SW is where the PNA comes more into play.

The other factor is do we get the MJO to stall or slow its progression when it enters into phase 7 territory for it to do us any good? That remains unclear and so models are likely going through the volatility one might expect while these factors still get resolved.

[txtwister78]

In other words I would not read into anything at this range despite daily model reacting post other than to say the opportunity still exist for a window of cold late month.

[HockeyTx82]

In other words I would not read into anything at this range despite daily model reacting post other than to say the opportunity still exist for a window of cold late month.

Detox for 5 days, then hit refresh here.

[Stratton23]

I wouldnt be surprised to hear a couple of sleet/ snow flurry reports this weekend ( saturday ish) in se texas as our next strong front moves through, looks like their could be just enough moisture for a flurry or sleet pellet to fall, wont amount to anything, but first rather “ interesting “ thing to see pop up evem in the short range

[Ntxw]

I wouldnt be surprised to hear a couple of sleet/ snow flurry reports this weekend ( saturday ish) in se texas as our next strong front moves through, looks like their could be just enough moisture for a flurry or sleet pellet to fall, wont amount to anything, but first rather “ interesting “ thing to see pop up evem in the short range

Yeah the models have been a little stronger each run with the shortwave rounding the base. A little more west and some more juice there may be a band of precip from the NW to SE across the state. Now will the surface allow anything with the very dry, cold air is another question.

Rooting for some lake-enhancement!

[Stratton23]

18z Euro came in with more moisture Saturday night, more widespread light snow showers in se texas

[gpsnowman]

18z Euro came in with more moisture Saturday night, more widespread light snow showers in se texas

If trends continue someone in Texas could see some flakes. Still looks like New Orleans down Interstate 10 east could see snow for the second year in a row. Incredible.

[gpsnowman]

Would love a 2010 I-20 special.

[wxman22]

Maybe we can squeeze out a band of light snow.

[Brent]

Yeah I will say for whatever the models at day 14 are struggling with a lot more people are talking about a pattern change this time where we're not just warming back up. Like I don't even have a 60 showing up here for the first time

And again look at Saturday I know it's not much but it wasn't showing up every run for 2 weeks either

I second the whole take a break from the models for a few days haha. You will drive yourself crazy for something nobody can control