Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Quixotic]

Ruh roh. A new player in the board. An Oklahoma low on Thursday

[Theepicman116]

Ruh roh. A new player in the board. An Oklahoma low on Thursday

"Player 2 has entered the game"

[Brent]

Much colder Friday morning this run

[Ntxw]

Ruh roh. A new player in the board. An Oklahoma low on Thursday

No luck for them, gone as soon as it appeared.

Looks agitated across Texas. DFW is below freezing and 850s are approaching 0C Friday morning, no precip yet

[Brent]

icy mix breaking out down towards Austin at 18z Friday

[Ntxw]

Hour 162, Sleet and freezing rain in S Texas, Austin to SA/western areas of SE Texas

[spencer817]

Looks like a S TX run

[sphelps8681]

Hour 162, Sleet and freezing rain in S Texas, Austin to SA/western areas of SE Texas

This is getting closer to my area earlier.

[Brent]

big ice storm in Central Texas Friday NIght, dry in DFW

[Theepicman116]

I didn't want winter weather anyways.

[Quixotic]

Ruh roh. A new player in the board. An Oklahoma low on Thursday

No luck for them, gone as soon as it appeared.

Looks agitated across Texas. DFW is below freezing and 850s are approaching 0C Friday morning, no precip yet

Ruh roh. A new player in the board. An Oklahoma low on Thursday

"Player 2 has entered the game"

I’m freaking out on a week out GFS run. It says too cold, too dry, but I know the overrun can fix that.

[Brent]

I didn't want winter weather anyways.

freezing rain isnt that great anyway, trust me

Ice trying to get into DFW at 180

[Ntxw]

Ruh roh. A new player in the board. An Oklahoma low on Thursday

No luck for them, gone as soon as it appeared.

Looks agitated across Texas. DFW is below freezing and 850s are approaching 0C Friday morning, no precip yet

Ruh roh. A new player in the board. An Oklahoma low on Thursday

"Player 2 has entered the game"

I’m freaking out on a week out GFS run. It says too cold, too dry, but I know the overrun can fix that.

We're not to the period the Euro has snow yet

But the early onslaught this run for Friday is S-C TX ice storm

[Brent]

I wouldn't mind if the bullseye moved away from DFW anyway this early, it seems to never end up being right at this stage

[ronyan]

This run is significantly colder than the 18z for SE TX.

[Brent]

snow in DFW at 192!!!

[Ntxw]

Snow in DFW Christmas eve...GFS just went to the Euro, almost identical while ice storm rages in the southern tier of the state

[Quixotic]

192 has me giddy.

[wxman57]

Based on the 500mb pattern the 00Z GFS is depicting, I can tell it's going to be another bad run for Texas (meaning heavy freezing rain). However, I doubt it will be a correct forecast. We may not know for sure what will happen until next Friday, when we can compare the short-range mesoscale models. Until then, take each model run with a grain of salt. I do see enough evidence that some cold air will invade Texas in 7 days, and there seems to be enough evidence to point to precip in the cold air, some of which may be freezing/frozen. However, the placement of this freezing/frozen precip will not be very certain until the event is within 24 hours.

That's quite a west Gulf low at 6Z next Sunday (on the 00Z GFS run). Would mean quite a lot of precip across Texas if it happens like that.

[SnowintheFalls]

18Z GFS doesn't paint a pretty picture for central to NE Texas and southern Arkansas. Over 3" of freezing rain and sleet - not snow. I'd be very cautious about taking that ECMWF snowfall map at face value. I'm not sure how well it does discriminating between snow and freezing rain/sleet in these situations. I'm not aware of anywhere that I can get an ECMWF sounding as we can with the GFS. We get the full ECMWF package at work, but I don't think we can plot a sounding. However, I did promise that the DFW area would get its snow next, now that I let the rest of the state have snow last week. Would a foot be enough up there?

Again, this may more likely be a freezing rain and sleet event - quite a severe ice storm. Central to NE TX and southern Arkansas are under the gun. Not so much of a threat for SE TX this time, it appears. Still a week off, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/18ZGFS.JPG

Don’t leave us up along the river out!

We can do without the ice up here by the river. Just send some sleet and snow our way!