NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Hurricane2022]

When is the next plane?

4 AM NOAA.

From cyclonicwx:

Depart time: 28/0800Z (5 hours and 15 minutes from now)

Entry time: 28/1000Z

Fix time: 28/1200Z

This plane will depart from Meli at 0530z, so we still have two more penetrations, if the aircraft remains well.

[Keldeo1997]

Hmm there is no Double wind max

[Teban54]

Here's the eye drop:

[Fancy1002]

972
UZNT13 KNHC 280247
XXAA 78038 99166 70785 04468 99903 27415 14505 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85541 23808 22006 70233 ///// 88999 77999
31313 09608 80234
61616 AF301 2213A MELISSA OB 22
62626 CENTER MBL WND 20505 AEV 40002 DLM WND 21005 903842 WL150 2
0504 080 REL 1660N07854W 023616 SPG 1660N07854W 023706 =
XXBB 78038 99166 70785 04468 00903 27415 11850 23808 22726 17407
33724 17823 44720 22860 55714 24064 66705 24065
21212 00903 14505 11850 22006 22842 23006
31313 09608 80234
61616 AF301 2213A MELISSA OB 22
62626 CENTER MBL WND 20505 AEV 40002 DLM WND 21005 903842 WL150 2
0504 080 REL 1660N07854W 023616 SPG 1660N07854W 023706 =
;

dropsonde 903mb

It seems like it broke and didn’t reach the surface.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd go with 180mph, 902mb based on that last pass and dropsonde data.

[wx98]

Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.

Or the AF plane could just not broadcast extrap pressure and we can wait for the dropsonde apparently.

Anyway, NE quad has 162 kt FL, similar to SW. Some other recent passes also had surprisingly high FL winds in the SW quad as well.

The system is barely moving, so, theoretically, winds should be similar in all quads with lack of forward motion.

[Jr0d]

When is the next plane?

4 AM NOAA.

The current AF plane has an exit time of 0530z (1:30 am EDT) for a 6-hour-long mission, so it should do a few more passes (if I understood it correctly).

If so, I hope they can get their surface pressure data back online. Also I am sure the crew and plane have taken a beating so making the full 6 hours will be one hell of an accomplishment for the crew, the plane and those maintaining the WC-130s.

[CrazyC83]

Welcome to the Top 10, Melissa.

That reading would place it at either a tie for 8th or sole possession of 9th all-time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

lol...time to start hitting refresh on the NHC site

[dukeblue219]

It seems like it broke and didn’t reach the surface.

Based on?

[abajan]

Preparations for Melissa in Jamaica earlier today:



Link: https://youtu.be/NSV8Lx20fH8

My apologies if this has already been shared but with almost 100 pages of comments, duplicate content can easily be missed.

[Hurricane2022]

NHC 150 903

[CrazyC83]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

[Travorum]

150kts/903mb at 11pm, Melissa is #9 of all time by intensity

[Teban54]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

We're at the point where, if the current trend continues, every recon pass can shake off one or a few more storms from the list.

[Category5Kaiju]

There's a very real possibility that Melissa's minimum core pressure will be lower than Mitch's and Dean's; the significant of this is that future Atlantic hurricanes would need to have a core pressure of LESS THAN 905 MBAR to even crack the top 10 most intense in history.

And, assuming we continue to get storms like Dorian, Milton, or Melissa in future seasons, then I do believe there will come a point when the top 10 most intense Atlantic hurricane list will solely consist of sub-900 members.

Edit: confirmed.

[aspen]

Odd eyewall drop. Winds drop from 140 kt to 122 kt right above the surface, then pick up to 160+ kt by the 919mb level.

[zal0phus]

Another top-ten hurricane. What a terrible yet astounding two years it's been

[Teban54]

NHC no longer forecasts any weakening before landfall, and has 150 kt for the next forecast point. (I believe that the "inland" and "over water" were labeled on the wrong lines.)

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 78.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 18.8N 77.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.7N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 23.0N 74.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1200Z 25.8N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 38.9N 56.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 47.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

Crazy how we have two "M" storms from two years in a row making the list. Guess the M curse is a thing