TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CronkPSU]

isn't that eye farther south than we thought then?

[gkrangers]

isn't that eye farther south than we thought then?

The image was from 4-5 hours ago. These satellites are called polar orbiters..they aren't stationary like the GOES satellites. They orbit the earth and can only see a small swath of the Earths surface at a time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also 85z data shown the same thing...Interesting storm we got here.

[CronkPSU]

isn't that eye farther south than we thought then?

The image was from 4-5 hours ago. These satellites are called polar orbiters..they aren't stationary like the GOES satellites. They orbit the earth and can only see a small swath of the Earths surface at a time.

sorry for what are probably very dumb questions...thanks for the info

[sma10]

The purported high pressure ridge was so incredibly weak that it wasn't even able to lift the weak trough. That Irene is now recurving should come as little surprise.

The trough now has Irene in its firm clasp, and she will soon begin heading due north and then northeast out to sea. Actually, this may allow ridging to build in a little more resolutely in 10 to 12 days from now which will help keep the new system now just emerging off Africa from recurving in Irene's wake. Had Irene not begun to recurve now, she would have weakened the ridge and possibly allowed recurvurature of this next system coming along. Today's recurvature of Irene eliminates that possibility as she will quickly now be swept out to sea.

What this means is that the window of opportunity has been opened a little further for what promises to be Jose. This doesn't mean that should the next system develop, Jose will be able to lollygag as he traverses the Atlantic, it just means that he won't necessarily now have to race forward at near 20 mph to make the ridge in time. There is also now a possibility of the ridge becoming entrenched longer than the day 10 through 13 time frame. Since Jose looks to be heading north of the islands, what is happening now with the recurvature of Irene will have a direct impact down the road on Jose.

By the way; Jose is a classic CV type system. Jose has enormous potential. He's entering onto the scene at the right time and in the right location. Everything looks very conducive for the development of this system into Jose, and for Jose's future development. Tracking will be a little tricky, but the recurvature of Irene makes less problematic.

Jose will make you totally forget about Irene. Here comes Jose.

Give me a break. I know the moderators of this forum are all in favor of "expressing an opinion" but don't you have to draw the line when somone starts peddling outright falsehoods?

"Irene is now recurving" is not an opinion -- it's a lie (A recurve is when a system has already turned AWAY from the coast -- that's why it's called recurve). Elysium never qualified his statement as "I am forecasting a recurve now" or "It is my opinion that Irene has begun a recurve" or "Please note that this forecast is unofficial - please follow NHC" or whatever that disclaimer is that we're supposed to put out.

Plus, what's with the "Jose"? He mentions Jose no less than 10 TIMES! We don't even have a freaking TWO statement yet!

Personally, I don't care. I certainly don't follow Elysium to get my tropical forecasts, but he writes in a seemingly authoritative tone, and is spreading uninformed and unofficial information.

[gkrangers]

Also 85z data shown the same thing...Interesting storm we got here.

yep, its just quite old.

Hoping for new microwave data soon...the satellites should have made another pass recently.

[Ivanhater]

The purported high pressure ridge was so incredibly weak that it wasn't even able to lift the weak trough. That Irene is now recurving should come as little surprise.

The trough now has Irene in its firm clasp, and she will soon begin heading due north and then northeast out to sea. Actually, this may allow ridging to build in a little more resolutely in 10 to 12 days from now which will help keep the new system now just emerging off Africa from recurving in Irene's wake. Had Irene not begun to recurve now, she would have weakened the ridge and possibly allowed recurvurature of this next system coming along. Today's recurvature of Irene eliminates that possibility as she will quickly now be swept out to sea.

What this means is that the window of opportunity has been opened a little further for what promises to be Jose. This doesn't mean that should the next system develop, Jose will be able to lollygag as he traverses the Atlantic, it just means that he won't necessarily now have to race forward at near 20 mph to make the ridge in time. There is also now a possibility of the ridge becoming entrenched longer than the day 10 through 13 time frame. Since Jose looks to be heading north of the islands, what is happening now with the recurvature of Irene will have a direct impact down the road on Jose.

By the way; Jose is a classic CV type system. Jose has enormous potential. He's entering onto the scene at the right time and in the right location. Everything looks very conducive for the development of this system into Jose, and for Jose's future development. Tracking will be a little tricky, but the recurvature of Irene makes less problematic.

Jose will make you totally forget about Irene. Here comes Jose.

Give me a break. I know the moderators of this forum are all in favor of "expressing an opinion" but don't you have to draw the line when somone starts peddling outright falsehoods?

"Irene is now recurving" is not an opinion -- it's a lie (A recurve is when a system has already turned AWAY from the coast -- that's why it's called recurve). Elysium never qualified his statement as "I am forecasting a recurve now" or "It is my opinion that Irene has begun a recurve" or "Please note that this forecast is unofficial - please follow NHC" or whatever that disclaimer is that we're supposed to put out.

Plus, what's with the "Jose"? He mentions Jose no less than 10 TIMES! We don't even have a freaking TWO statement yet!

Personally, I don't care. I certainly don't follow Elysium to get my tropical forecasts, but he writes in a seemingly authoritative tone, and is spreading uninformed and unofficial information.

haaaaaaaaaaaaaa, so true so true

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this is new. It shows a partly closed off eye. With intense eyewall to the northeastern quad. Interesting.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... E=al092005

Also

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... E=al092005

[gkrangers]

Thats about 6 hours old.

Note the times of the pass..it says 1745Z.

[ThunderMate]

Elysium.....Your forcast is frankly a joke due to you having no facts of proof of what you are forcasting. We all know that Irene poses a big threat to the east coast and that she isn't going to recurve like you are saying. Irene is not over and that will be evident within the next couple of days. Now with Jose.....forget it man. Jose isn't even here yet and if he does develope it simply won't be where you are saying it will due to how far out it is even if it does develope. I understand this is your opinion but at least make better opinion and save us the time of reading a goofy forcast like this one and put some real info up for all of us to look at and enjoy. Simply get the facts then post and we will all then agree with you.[/quote]

[JPmia]

Instead of getting all upset about this guy...why don't you just ignore him...so I don't have to read the posts from you guys about him. Two words that are easy to follow: IGNORE HIM. Now can we get back to a discussion about Irene. Thanks.

[Andrew92]

I actually have to ponder something....

When Elysium makes these seeming forecasts, how come he doesn't get in trouble for not putting the disclaimer up? That is one main reason anyway why I don't read his forecasts for anything except entertainment purposes.

No offense meant to you Elysium, but I think you should AT LEAST put the disclaimer up for one of these "discussions", from this link:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... mer#875215

This is NOT to say that you can't have your own opinion, because you can. You just need to be VERY careful when you try to make an amateur forecast and, to at least some degree, know what you're talking about.

-Andrew92

[wxman57]

I don't think that Irene is developing an eye. If so, then it's about 60 miles across. You may be seeing banding convection around a center, though. Interesting that QuickSCAT still shows no LLC. I guess recon will find out what's there tomorrow.

[Eyes2theSkies]

Is it true the stronger Irene gets the more likely she is to move west?

[Ivanhater]

i wonder why he only comes in every few hours and puts up these ridiculous posts and never responds to anyone.....sounds like a troll to me

[Ivanhater]

i wonder why he only comes in every few hours and puts up these ridiculous posts and never responds to anyone.....sounds like a troll to me

[shaggy]

going to be curious what the models say at 00z tonight.They have been all over the place with this storm and even more interesting will be what recon finds tomorrow.Still thinking a SC/NC/VA hit but no way to know for sure

[Thunder44]

Did you guys notice that "elysium" sounds a little like "asylum"?

[wxman57]

going to be curious what the models say at 00z tonight.They have been all over the place with this storm and even more interesting will be what recon finds tomorrow.Still thinking a SC/NC/VA hit but no way to know for sure

Which models are you waiting to see at 00Z? Do you mean the BAMs? For a storm in the subtropics, you do not want to use the BAMM/BAMD/BAMS. They are very crude, basic models that don't use any physics. NHC uses them for a general estimate of the movement of developing tropical waves in the deep tropics. I don't know why they would continue to run them for a system so far north where the atmosphere is quite dynamic. However, I do look to see what the DSHIPS is predicting for intensity to see if there are any trends.


Up north, you want to look at the dynamic global models, like maybe the GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, ECMWF (though it's not been doing too well with tropical systems), GFS (if it can initialize a storm right), etc. Those runs for 00Z won't be out for quite a while.

[superfly]

I don't know about you guys, but I love elysium's posts for entertainment purposes. I love how it's always so flashily worded but has no substance at all. I actually chuckle in real life every time I read one of his posts. Keep it up!