ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Florida1118]

I'm really confused right now, I thought if this storm was stronger it would turn more north like the NHC track..now these models are shifting south and confusing me..

They aren't starting with a Tropical Storm; some of them are starting with a wave or general area of low pressure, like the GFS. They don't have the storm at the correct strength, so it doesn't feel the weakness in the model, and goes south. They need to start out with a strong TS and not a weak system to show a plausible outcome.

So basically all these models with the south shift lately are out to lunch?

Yes, as they don't start correctly. Basically start with incorrect strength, end with incorrect position of the storm.

[ROCK]

I'm really confused right now, I thought if this storm was stronger it would turn more north like the NHC track..now these models are shifting south and confusing me..

They aren't starting with a Tropical Storm; some of them are starting with a wave or general area of low pressure, like the GFS. They don't have the storm at the correct strength, so it doesn't feel the weakness in the model, and goes south. They need to start out with a strong TS and not a weak system to show a plausible outcome.

agree...the only model who has got it right is the GFDL.....tonight

[hurricanetrack]

Here is UKMET:

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052012

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.08.2012 14.1N 64.9W WEAK
12UTC 04.08.2012 14.9N 67.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.08.2012 15.8N 71.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2012 16.4N 75.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.08.2012 16.5N 78.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2012 17.0N 81.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2012 16.9N 83.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2012 17.5N 85.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2012 17.9N 87.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2012 18.7N 88.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.08.2012 19.2N 91.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.08.2012 20.1N 93.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2012 20.5N 94.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

Notice is never gets strong. So does this explain the west track? We shall see.... I for one would be really interested to see what happens if E becomes a hurricane soon. Will the guidance change THEN? Or, is it just not ever going to get strong/deep? Who knows....

[ROCK]

EURO at 48hr has a 1009mb TC heading west.....dont think it has a good grasp IMO....unless E weakens....

[mcheer23]

HWRF opens Ernesto up into a wave....then sends him to Louisiana..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2 ... /slp21.png

[ROCK]

why are they weakening it?.....its going over well above ssts to support a major, it has slowed down, the shear forecast is light....I dont get it....

[Stormlover2012]

can u post gfdl run

[Hurricane Alexis]

EURO at 48hr has a 1009mb TC heading west.....dont think it has a good grasp IMO....unless E weakens....

Which mostly isn't gonna happen so yea, it doesn't have a good grasp on it either.

[hurricanetrack]

Welcome to Felix all over again. Or Isabel? Remember when people actually thought the gov't was hiding the hurricane in the models? Perhaps sometimes the models stink, perhaps not. This is REALLY going to be interesting to see how it all ends. Either ALL of the global models are wrong or we are about to see a major shift IF Ernesto is not just messing with us

[mcheer23]

Cant wait to see if the NHC shifts cone south a bit at 5am or stays put

[South Texas Storms]

Oh man 0z GFDL: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html
Down to 950mb south of Louisiana at the end of the run.

[bamajammer4eva]

Yes these are old but he's thought the weak storm idea for a few days which is what the models are showing. He is still saying the same thing though tonight.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
my forecast for td 5 remains the same. Storm by Windwards, but weakens to a wave in Caribbean, then may be a problem in gulf later
5:26 PM - 1 Aug 12 via web

Joe Bastardi
‏@BigJoeBastardi
NO change on Ernesto. Storm may reach its peak intensity next 36 hours, and could be mainly open wave by 60 hrs.
6:52 PM - 2 Aug 12 via web

Wonder if he'll be right??? He thinks the dry air will take its toll on Esto in the Caribbean but it may become a threat further west.

[Hurricane Alexis]

At least with Debby we had the GFS doing it's own thing while all the other models where off in the wrong direction......who knows maybe Ernie does weaken.

[ROCK]

Oh man 0z GFDL: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html
Down to 950mb south of Louisiana at the end of the run.

the GFDL stands alone as the right outlier now....

[South Texas Storms]

Oh man 0z GFDL: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html
Down to 950mb south of Louisiana at the end of the run.

the GFDL stands alone as the right outlier now....

It seems pretty reasonable though. Strengthens it pretty good as it moves over the very high water temps near the Yucatan Channel.

[Weatherfreak000]

Oh man 0z GFDL: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html
Down to 950mb south of Louisiana at the end of the run.

GFDL looks pretty good to me honestly, it initializes well, and shows steady intensification. This track is essentially consistent with not only the NHC, but the globals as well which show a turn towards the weakness in the NGOM. Now, just because that run ended south of LA doesn't mean it won't hook right either....


GFDL called Katrina all those years ago when EVERY other model, and I mean every damn one, said differently. I learned that day never to discount the GFDL.

[Rgv20]

[mcheer23]

Oh man 0z GFDL: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html
Down to 950mb south of Louisiana at the end of the run.

the GFDL stands alone as the right outlier now....

Nah, HWRF sends it to the same area

[mcheer23]

This isnt a storm to mess with...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... /slp21.png

[ROCK]

Oh man 0z GFDL: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html
Down to 950mb south of Louisiana at the end of the run.

the GFDL stands alone as the right outlier now....

Nah, HWRF sends it to the same area

opens it up into a wave also in the carib which is unrealistic...