ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

came home from work .how all northeastern state geting ready? what step their taking ?? their doing what do for hurr or more like what do for northeastern? all saying this be subtropical when hit northern eastern states

[Stephanie]

Here's the Executive Summary of the latest (5:30 p.m. EDT) briefing of the NWS office in Mt. Holly, NJ, which covers the Philly forecast area, Delaware, and most of NJ.

Hurricane Sandy will have a major impact on our region over the next several days:
• Strong damaging sustained winds 35 to 50 mph over a prolonged period of time (24 to 48 hours), with gusts up to near hurricane strength. Strongest winds are expected south and east of the I-95 corridor.
• Extremely heavy rainfall.
• Major to record inland flooding along streams and rivers.
• Major to record coastal flooding. The full moon on October 29 just makes things worse.
• Options for the storm to miss our area are rapidly dwindling. Confidence on the storm having a major impact on our region continues to increase. The focus of efforts should be on when Sandy hits our region, not if Sandy hits our region.
• Next briefing package will be issued by Noon on Sunday, October 28th.
• Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi.

You can see the full presentation here:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/pa ... iefing.pdf

Thank you for posting this.

[jlauderdal]

The quiet on this site and so many others (even Wunderground is much quieter than usual, though much more active than here) is really beginning to unnerve me. We've not even managed to fill a full 10 pages here in 12 hours today...!!!!

the folks in the northeast dont even know about this board...they dont follow these types of systems that closely because its so rare to be affected...they know what is going on but will get info from other sources...also, the system is offshore, expect more action when it gets closer

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is my impact estimate for the region:



Red - Highest impact. Widespread to extensive loss of power expected along with major coastal flooding, and many trees and power lines down possibly blocking areas. Structural damage is also possible in some cases, especially in vulnerable areas (i.e. higher terrain, near the ocean/lakes in onshore flows and in areas prone to funneling). Possible sustained winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts 60 to 80 mph, except sustained over 60 mph with gusts up to 100 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Orange - Significant impact. Scattered to widespread loss of power, with numerous to many trees and power lines down. Slight structural damage possible in vulnerable areas (i.e. higher terrain, near the ocean/lakes in onshore flows and in areas prone to funneling). Possible sustained winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts 50 to 65 mph, except up to 80 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Yellow - Modest impact. Isolated to scattered loss of power. A few trees and power lines possibly down. Possible sustained winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 50 mph, except up to 60 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Blue - High impact due to heavy snow. This area overlaps with other colored zones, and indicates where heavy, wet snow could take down many trees and power lines and caused major problems in themselves.

[KBBOCA]

About the Jets game... I was reading about likely mass transit shut down at 7 p.m. tomorrow and the cancellation of a special train or something that is usually available for home games. I hope people don't get stranded with no way home...

[ozonepete]

Convection increasing and building over the LLC again.

[KBBOCA]

A really nice graphic from the comments at Wunderground - two ASCAT passes stitched together - shows the massive size of Sandy. (I think Sandy is now tied with IGOR as largest Atlantic cyclone?)

[floridasun78]

About the Jets game... I was reading about likely mass transit shut down at 7 p.m. tomorrow and the cancellation of a special train or something that is usually available for home games. I hope people don't get stranded with no way home...

i bet their plan set with team to get fans home quick

[galaxy401]

Red - Highest impact. Widespread to extensive loss of power expected along with major coastal flooding, and many trees and power lines down possibly blocking areas. Structural damage is also possible in some cases, especially in vulnerable areas (i.e. higher terrain, near the ocean/lakes in onshore flows and in areas prone to funneling). Possible sustained winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts 60 to 80 mph, except sustained over 60 mph with gusts up to 100 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Orange - Significant impact. Scattered to widespread loss of power, with numerous to many trees and power lines down. Slight structural damage possible in vulnerable areas (i.e. higher terrain, near the ocean/lakes in onshore flows and in areas prone to funneling). Possible sustained winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts 50 to 65 mph, except up to 80 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Yellow - Modest impact. Isolated to scattered loss of power. A few trees and power lines possibly down. Possible sustained winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 50 mph, except up to 60 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Blue - High impact due to heavy snow. This area overlaps with other colored zones, and indicates where heavy, wet snow could take down many trees and power lines and caused major problems in themselves.

Ugh I'm on the very edge of the yellow on your map Crazy. Hope nothing happens here.

[KWT]

Even those gusts might be a little on the low side Crazy, here in the UK we are kinda used to these large tight systems that get rapid boosts like this one will (though its rather rare it comes in the form of an actual hurricane!), I'd imagine its a little more rare for the E.coast to get a system quite this powerful (Scotland for example probably gets a 940mbs system skirt close to it once every year or two).

[KBBOCA]

Just one more comment about the quiet. I know there are very few members here from the N.E. But I *DID* think that a higher percentage of our members were true tropical enthusiasts, not just folks concerned about their own neck of the woods.

We've got maybe a historic storm happening with so many fascinating angles. I just am surprised that there aren't more pure weather enthusiasts here regardless of WHERE the storm is going to hit. It's not meant as a criticism or attack, I'm just very honestly surprised that there's not more desire to follow this storm.

[CrazyC83]

Red - Highest impact. Widespread to extensive loss of power expected along with major coastal flooding, and many trees and power lines down possibly blocking areas. Structural damage is also possible in some cases, especially in vulnerable areas (i.e. higher terrain, near the ocean/lakes in onshore flows and in areas prone to funneling). Possible sustained winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts 60 to 80 mph, except sustained over 60 mph with gusts up to 100 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Orange - Significant impact. Scattered to widespread loss of power, with numerous to many trees and power lines down. Slight structural damage possible in vulnerable areas (i.e. higher terrain, near the ocean/lakes in onshore flows and in areas prone to funneling). Possible sustained winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts 50 to 65 mph, except up to 80 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Yellow - Modest impact. Isolated to scattered loss of power. A few trees and power lines possibly down. Possible sustained winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 50 mph, except up to 60 mph in the most vulnerable areas.

Blue - High impact due to heavy snow. This area overlaps with other colored zones, and indicates where heavy, wet snow could take down many trees and power lines and caused major problems in themselves.

Ugh I'm on the very edge of the yellow on your map Crazy. Hope nothing happens here.

I put yellow there because of the lake enhancement primarily, tried to cover a potential southerly flow off Lake Michigan. I'm solidly in the orange.

[Portastorm]

Just one more comment about the quiet. I know there are very few members here from the N.E. But I *DID* think that a higher percentage of our members were true tropical enthusiasts, not just folks concerned about their own neck of the woods.

We've got maybe a historic storm happening with so many fascinating angles. I just am surprised that there aren't more pure weather enthusiasts here regardless of WHERE the storm is going to hit. It's not meant as a criticism or attack, I'm just very honestly surprised that there's not more desire to follow this storm.

<sarcasm mode on> Those of us in the rest of the country aren't too concerned because Mayor Bloomberg doesn't think this will be that big of a deal. <sarcasm mode off>

I think it's a combination of being the weekend and that the primary threat here will impact areas which don't have as large of a representation on here than what we see along the Gulf Coast, for example. That being said ... as those of us on here know ... if this storm ends up being what we think it will be, a lot of people will be following this thing once the impact starts being felt.

[kat61]

The quiet on this site and so many others (even Wunderground is much quieter than usual, though much more active than here) is really beginning to unnerve me. We've not even managed to fill a full 10 pages here in 12 hours today...!!!!

the folks in the northeast dont even know about this board...they dont follow these types of systems that closely because its so rare to be affected...they know what is going on but will get info from other sources...also, the system is offshore, expect more action when it gets closer

you're both correct. The north might not visit hurricane blogs due to not being involved in the past and don't know this is available. It's interesting because even a cat 1 on the east coast would be at least a few hundrend pages by now...I think this storm is so different nobody knows what to think..

[CrazyC83]

The quiet on this site and so many others (even Wunderground is much quieter than usual, though much more active than here) is really beginning to unnerve me. We've not even managed to fill a full 10 pages here in 12 hours today...!!!!

the folks in the northeast dont even know about this board...they dont follow these types of systems that closely because its so rare to be affected...they know what is going on but will get info from other sources...also, the system is offshore, expect more action when it gets closer

you're both correct. The north might not visit hurricane blogs due to not being involved in the past and don't know this is available. It's interesting because even a cat 1 on the east coast would be at least a few hundrend pages by now...I think this storm is so different nobody knows what to think..

If this storm was hitting Florida or the Gulf Coast, I think there would be over 500 pages by now.

[cycloneye]

Just one more comment about the quiet. I know there are very few members here from the N.E. But I *DID* think that a higher percentage of our members were true tropical enthusiasts, not just folks concerned about their own neck of the woods.

We've got maybe a historic storm happening with so many fascinating angles. I just am surprised that there aren't more pure weather enthusiasts here regardless of WHERE the storm is going to hit. It's not meant as a criticism or attack, I'm just very honestly surprised that there's not more desire to follow this storm.

<sarcasm mode on> Those of us in the rest of the country aren't too concerned because Mayor Bloomberg doesn't think this will be that big of a deal. <sarcasm mode off>

I think it's a combination of being the weekend and that the primary threat here will impact areas which don't have as large of a representation on here than what we see along the Gulf Coast, for example. That being said ... as those of us on here know ... if this storm ends up being what we think it will be, a lot of people will be following this thing once the impact starts being felt.

And despite all of what Porta said and I agree 100%,this thread is with 100 pages and the other threads of models,recon etc are also active. Keep it going peeps.

[CrazyC83]

Remember: that colored map I made note of enhancements that could affect the wind. Some places in the orange area will get higher winds than a large part of the red area (i.e. downwind of the Great Lakes vs. inland lowlands away from the coast in the red). That is one reason why such maps are hard to draw since different areas will be affected differently.

[monicaei]

So the cold front it is supposed to pick up, where is it now? Why isn't it as clearly visible as sandy?

[brunota2003]

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: We are not ordering any evacuations as of this time, in any part of the city.

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: Although we’re expecting a large surge of water, it will be a slower pile-up and not a sudden wall of water.

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: Even though we are not ordering evacuations, conditions will be dangerous during the storm. The safest thing to do is stay inside.

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: We haven’t made a decision yet as to whether schools will be open on Monday. We will make that decision and announce it tomorrow.

NYC Mayor's Office ‏@NYCMayorsOffice
Mayor: Because of the hazards posed by high winds, all City parks will be closed after 5 PM tomorrow.


Wow...just unbelievable! Not evacuating, and commenting it is a "slow pile up" and not a tsunami type surge? 10 feet, is 10 feet...regardless of how fast it comes in!

[StormingB81]

Well tomorrow they said is going to be the worst part we get. So far we have had over 3 inches of rain here today. I am hoping when the winds get here they don't knock all these trees down