Texas Winter 2016-2017

[hriverajr]

As I had said before.. and sadly have to agree with 57.. I STILL don't see any kind of significant winter weather pattern (ice, sleet, snow south of the Panhandle) for Texas. This last cold shot was quite cold.. but its staying power was limited.. moderate strength high pressure will not get you any staying power.. It's been that way the past two years too.. Also we have no significant low latitude disturbances showing up either at this time. This can of course all change

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Sooooo many of you havent looked at the 18z GFS have you? Lol. While at 10 days there is a big trough dipping into the US, but more importantly, in the LR, it sees a massive Aleutian High with a 1056 MB High still north of Alaska. The patterns i feel like can give clues that far out, not actual snow storms.

[ronyan]

I wonder whether there is any usefulness in looking at a 384 hr GFS panel. A strong ridge does get established in the GOA well before that around hour 200. 500mb pattern eventually develops a ridge over Greenland at the same time.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah the two connect into a very large one. Notice the forcing in the pacific seems different too on the 500 MB level

[gboudx]

Packing to go to New Orleans for Christmas and bringing no long sleeves and more shorts than jeans. Just stupid.

[wxman57]

quite a few sub-freezing lows at DFW in that timeframe... even some in the mid 20s. Highs some days around 40.

Where are you seeing that, Brent? I'm looking at the 12Z EC and the lowest temp I see for the D-FW area is 31-32 at day 10 (New Year's). Highs generally in the 50s to 60s.

The 18Z GFS builds a ridge across Alaska in the 12-16 day timeframe, and indicates some cross-Polar flow around day 16 (Jan 7). Of course, it's having a hard time with the next 7 days, much less day 16. Unfortunately, though, the warmth won't stay around here forever...

[Ntxw]

Yeah I agree with wxman57 the -EPO isn't yet cross polar flow but it will send down some modified polar air. Once you get the rex block into Alaska/Aleutians then you'd see Siberian air cross over which is a little beyond realistic range. We should get a good modified cold blast sometime late next week though.

[Brent]

quite a few sub-freezing lows at DFW in that timeframe... even some in the mid 20s. Highs some days around 40.

Where are you seeing that, Brent? I'm looking at the 12Z EC and the lowest temp I see for the D-FW area is 31-32 at day 10 (New Year's). Highs generally in the 50s to 60s.

The 18Z GFS builds a ridge across Alaska in the 12-16 day timeframe, and indicates some cross-Polar flow around day 16 (Jan 7). Of course, it's having a hard time with the next 7 days, much less day 16. Unfortunately, though, the warmth won't stay around here forever...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDFW

Beyond hour 216

But yeah you're right, it is fantasy land

[orangeblood]

For the 1st time this season, long range models are becoming very bullish on wintry precip across the southern plains....GFS ENS, Euro ENS and European Weeklies all show a much more southerly storm track with plenty of Arctic Air to tap into starting around the New Year into the 1st of January. Much more optimistic about this pattern than anything all of last winter season

It appears we'll have an incredible amount of cold air on our side of the Globe in the coming weeks along with above normal precip

[Brent]

0z Euro DFW, much different than the GFS

3/4ths of an inch of rain through Christmas Day, a lull Monday, then heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Over 4 inches of rain by Wednesday Night. Highs around 70 Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, 60s Monday, 50s Tuesday, near 70 Wednesday. GFS is mostly dry in this timeframe. Much cooler and drier next Thursday, seasonal temps

Run ends with seasonal temps and dry for New Years weekend

[wxman57]

00Z Euro has only a moderate cold front moving through Texas next Thursday. Possibly a light freeze into D-FW next Saturday, then it warms up from there. 6Z GFS has a strong cold front moving through Texas on New Year's Day. Euro has south winds across Texas at the same time, as does the 00Z GFS-Parallel run. Don't trust the GFS beyond the next 3-5 days. No sign of cross-Polar flow in the ECMWF through 10 days means no significant cold across Texas over the next couple of weeks.

[aggiecutter]

Great news on the rain front:

[Yukon Cornelius]

I'll trade my share of the rain for colder air.

[Portastorm]

Aggiecutter's part of the state really needs the rain.

[wxman57]

The 12Z EC and GFS are still battling for control over New Year's Day. EC says mild with highs in the low 60s in the D-FW area, GFS says cold with a high in the upper 30s. My money is on the EC, as it has been more consistent than the GFS (plus I like warm weather, if you hadn't noticed).

[Ntxw]

Both guidance does develop cross polar flow early Jan. It would be a little after that for Siberian air to pool over into W Canada. New Year's front is Canadian mix with some Pacific flow air so cold but not from across the pole yet.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the first week of January for a potential pattern change. Starting to see a pronounced NE Pacific/NW Atlantic Block with a very deep longwave trough digging South across the Intermountain West and the Plains. Very chilly Arctic air infiltrates our source region with the coldest air on our side of the Northern Hemisphere via the longer range ensemble schemes.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[Portastorm]

Ten days out both the GFS and Euro ensembles look fairly similar with the trough-ridge pattern going on.

[Golf7070]

Porta，that looks like the same image for both. Just wanted to tell you it looked identical