Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

So ntxw you think the front stays pushed through and all the precip could change to sleet? Even for us in south Texas?
Also just for knowledg… were there models back in 2004? when the Christmas miracle took place here? Could a disturbance come out of Mexico like it did back then? Or different setup?

It is quite likely to be some colder and faster than currently modeled.

[wxman22]

So ntxw you think the front stays pushed through and all the precip could change to sleet? Even for us in south Texas?
Also just for knowledg… were there models back in 2004? when the Christmas miracle took place here? Could a disturbance come out of Mexico like it did back then? Or different setup?

Yes, there were models way before 2004. I remember the GFS even predicted the Christmas snow miracle almost 2 weeks before it happened. It flipped flopped of course.

[Yukon Cornelius]

My family and I are going to Kalahari in Roundrock on Monday, staying overnight for my daughter's birthday, heading back Tuesday. Only 25 minutes away, but not jazzed about the timing.

Guess I'll be wrapping a few plants and wrapping/dripping spigots..

I never understood dripping a spigot. I mean if a waterfall can freeze over how will a little dripping help?

Not asking you. Just asking the group as a whole.

If it gets cold enough does dripping really help?

In my case, one of my bibs in built into the wall on the north side of the house. When temps were in the teens, I started by covering it in a styrofoam bib protector you can get at Lowe's or Home Depot. Later when I uncovered it and checked it, the faucet turned, but it wouldn't flow. Had to pour warm' water on it for several seconds before it started flowing.

The next time it was in the teens, I put a layer of towels between the house and hose bib seal. The edge still froze. So the next time in the infamous 2021 freeze, I decided to wrap it in towels and put some duct tape over the towels below the faucet (for the water to slide over so it wouldn't accumulate on towels). I set a little drip, and that worked. It got down to 6 degrees here with 8 inches of snow. Probably doesn't work for everyone, but mine gets the brunt of the arctic chill. My other hose bib is out in back on south side and also let drip a little, but I have never had an issue with that one.

My neighbor just covered his in 2021, and his was fine. His wall faces east. My other neighbor dripped hers and was fine. Hers faces west. I did both.lol

I have one that faces North as well along with my washer pipes which used to freeze up each time we had cold like whats coming. I have nothing blocking the wind from this wall since I live in the middle of nowhere. What ive found that works really well is I cover the bib with one of the hard plastic insulated covers and then lean a piece of 4x8 1/2' plywood against the outside wall, covering up the bib. Since ive been doing this its never froze.

[wxman57]

EC ensembles are in - orange dashed line. Mid to upper 20s for Houston Tuesday and similar on Wednesday, then a big warm-up. Above freezing during the day Tuesday.

[Itryatgolf]

Most people was not prepared in Feb 2021 because we haven't witnessed nothing like that in a long time, maybe ever for some. It caught everyone playing catchup, which at that point it was too late. This type pattern IMO doesn't support that kind of cold and duration like back in Feb 2021 or even dec 2022. Cold because of a bigger snowpack up north yes, but nothing like we have seen before. Climate change is a total different monster. We had warm winters years ago among cold winters. People will argue about it forever, which debating and hearing opinions is good. I read something other day that mentioned if the weather didn't change 9/10 times, nobody would have much to talk about lol

[hurricane2025]

Models struggle with shallow cold masses we know this it will be colder

[Ntxw]

Most people was not prepared in Feb 2021 because we haven't witnessed nothing like that in a long time, maybe ever for some. It caught everyone playing catchup, which at that point it was too late. This type pattern IMO doesn't support that kind of cold and duration like back in Feb 2021 or even dec 2022. Cold because of a bigger snowpack up north yes, but nothing like we have seen before. Climate change is a total different monster. We had warm winters years ago among cold winters. People will argue about it forever, which debating and hearing opinions is good. I read something other day that mentioned if the weather didn't change 9/10 times, nobody would have much to talk about lol

Dec 2022 was a spectacular frontal passage. But that air mass was not as impressive as this one.

[Stratton23]

It seems after this big push of bitter arctic air, the pattern stays on the colder side through at least the 25th due to models starting to show the TPV hanging back longer, after this bitter cold, the warmest i see is maybe low-mid 40’s for highs, this cold pattern will be around for quite some time with blocking staying firmly entrenched

[Ntxw]

Wouldn't it be fitting if Friday's system was able to pull the cold air source more than modeled? There I said what some of us were thinking.

[Gotwood]

So ntxw you think the front stays pushed through and all the precip could change to sleet ? Even for us in south Texas?
Also just for knowledg… were there models back in 2004? when the Christmas miracle took place here? Could a disturbance come out of Mexico like it did back then? Or different setup?

Yes, there were models way before 2004. I remember the GFS even predicted the Christmas snow miracle almost 2 weeks before it happened. It flipped flopped of course.

I see you changed your avatar lol dumb me wrong poster.

[opticsguy]

Classic example of cold air vs GFS. The NAM had it nailed to the hour on the next run. Courtesy Iowa State Metoegram generator

[Quixotic]

I can’t believe I’m going to miss this. I’ll be in Las Vegas.

[bubba hotep]

I can’t believe I’m going to miss this. I’ll be in Las Vegas.

Bet on a rerun in February.

[Texas Snow]

I can’t believe I’m going to miss this. I’ll be in Las Vegas.

My fear anytime I schedule to be out of town in winter. Heck, I'm going to Cozumel for Spring Break and although chances in mid march are always slim, I still realize how pissed I would be were it to snow at home (yes I know I would be in Cozumel so poor me, but that is how my mind works with winter weather at home )

[wxman57]

EC Ensembles have 1-2 inches snow in D-FW area. This doesn't look nearly as cold as 2021 or 2022 here in Houston. Don't care how cold it gets in D-FW. A couple moderate freezes here and winter can be over.

[WacoWx]

Any idea of the timing on that DFW precip?

[hurricane2025]

Icon 18z has it getting here quicker, models will be back and forth till about Saturday

[Tireman4]

EC Ensembles have 1-2 inches snow in D-FW area. This doesn't look nearly as cold as 2021 or 2022 here in Houston. Don't care how cold it gets in D-FW. A couple moderate freezes here and winter can be over.

6-25k BTU Kerosene Heaters will be sent over to Wxman57 Enterprises to warm you up next week, sir. It is our way of helping you out this year!

[Texas Snow]

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1744836855064138049




If you open the photos it shows ~20% chance of wintry mix in DFW, but more likely East

Hey, it's a start!

[mmmmsnouts]

How late would that possible sleet and ice be on Sunday? Asking for about 80,000 friends going to the Cowboys game.