Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am feeling more uncertain about what may happen..
will a stronger center go into the NW caribbean or will a
stronger center go north of cuba if/as a new center forms
over cuba? or too early to tell?

sorry if my questions get annoying

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

in the image hurakan posted it looks like
the strongest low is north of cuba

[Vortex]

LLC and MLC have decoupled..Lets se what happens when it reaches the carribean sea late this afternoon

[NcentralFlaguy]

per cuban radar, the LLC is nearing the coast .in fact a portion is already over water in that little bay or gulf of whatever.

[wzrgirl1]

how can you tell it has decoupled?

[Vortex]

Hi-Res visible is an easy read..There is NO mystery folks. The LLC continues W towards the carribean sea..

[wzrgirl1]

so now we have to wait and see if convection forms over the new LLC or is it the same LLC that has just separated from the rest?

[Nimbus]

So tonight the NHC splits and doubles down. The center north of Cuba turns northeast near Andros island and the Carib energy misses the trough because it is weaker?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hi-Res visible is an easy read..There is NO mystery folks. The LLC continues W towards the carribean sea..

Looks like Reformation is a strong possibilty N of cuba right now as it moves WNW Vortex..

[Thunder44]

The 12z GFS keeps the LLC and MLC seperated for the about the next 48hrs. The LLC doesn't reform under the MLC until the entire system turns to the NE away from Florida.

[cycloneye]

Hi-Res visible is an easy read..There is NO mystery folks. The LLC continues W towards the carribean sea..

Looks like Reformation is a strong possibilty N of cuba right now as it moves WNW Vortex..

Bingo! Destruction5

[tgenius]

You know its been a quiet season for mainland US when a borderline TS is making headlines!

[NcentralFlaguy]

Although there may be a center re-location in the near future, it is not happening now. Just scroll back to page 71 look at the cuban radar and you will clearly see the LLC half offshore already to the south and will be completely offshore soon. The convection is hot on its tail also. no evidence of any other low level circ anywhere else on that radar, and it goes out a good way.like vortex said it prob wont have much of an effect on the outcome. but it is what it is now...looks like a duck..flies like a duck its probably a duck, right now its a duck

[Bgator]

Looking at latest Cuban radar it looks like the original LLC is starting to turn more NW now.
They dont have the best radar though.

[HURAKAN]

[curtadams]

It certainly *looks* like LLC and MLC have decoupled. But the MLC isn't acting like a decoupled MLC. Decoupled MLCs drift with the upper winds, which should send it off to the NE. But it's plugging away WNW. So either they are still connected and we're seeing a very sheared system or the MLC has already formed some kind of LLC to anchor it.

[NcentralFlaguy]

a side not the current still image of the wv loop...kinda looks like an alien with its hair on fire

[Steve H.]

Yeah right now the main LCC is still inland in Cuba. There MAY be a reformation in the works but the LLC is still strong inland. Such a reformation may destroy the system, but more than likely it will eventually move off the coast north of Cuba at some point in the next 24 hours, so the outcome would be the same. 12Z CMC shows Noel just to the south of Cuba at 24 hours, then just off the coast of West Palm at 996 mb, then off to the NE.

[Sanibel]

Making the turn now up the spine of Cuba.

Good structure.