ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

Very interested to see if the GFDL is back east. I suspect it will.

[LaBreeze]

East as in - How far east HouTXmetro?

[kempshark]

Canadian has dirty side all over Tampa/St Pete area on way to Panhandle...

BOOOO CANADA!!!!

I was just watching BayNews9 and saw that they no longer had us in the cone and I got excited! I know that I'll keep watching Ike because 1) I'm addicted to this stuff and 2) He keeps switching up on me so, I won't turn my back on him!

At least there's 2 of us so, we can keep an almost 24 hour watch! When Chrissy goes to bed, then it's my turn to hop on here and see what's happening!

Actually that makes at least 3 of us, and I'm still keeping an eye on this storm also. I have many friends down in the Keys, and I'm hoping they don't get much out of Ike. Then again, I hope we don't either. That sounds bad, because someone is going to get it, and actually someone already is down in the islands tonight.

[Viper54r]

ok now back to business.......0z GFDL rolling in....

out 36hrs now

Link please?

[ROCK]

so far not much difference in the 18z and 0z.....northern tip of Cuba...runs the spine which would really screw him up....

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFDL is almost due West at 126 hours, looks like a Cat 3 per AccuWx PPV site which updates before the free sites.

Tomorrow's 6Z and 12Z runs will tell the story.

[HouTXmetro]

East as in - How far east HouTXmetro?

Oh don't mind me. After Gustav I have noticed that the models tend to swing east overnight and west during the day. Just my amateur opinions.

[ROCK]

GFDL is almost due West at 126 hours, looks like a Cat 3 per AccuWx PPV site which updates before the free sites.

Tomorrow's 6Z and 12Z runs will tell the story.

Ed, I am only out 84 hrs.....thats not fair...

[haml8]

GFDL is almost due West at 126 hours, looks like a Cat 3 per AccuWx PPV site which updates before the free sites.

Tomorrow's 6Z and 12Z runs will tell the story.

What is JB saying about this Ed?

[HouTXmetro]

GFDL is almost due West at 126 hours, looks like a Cat 3 per AccuWx PPV site which updates before the free sites.

Tomorrow's 6Z and 12Z runs will tell the story.

So you are not buying this run of the GFDL?

[Stratosphere747]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.3 70.2 250./12.0
6 21.0 71.4 255./12.1
12 20.8 72.6 263./10.7
18 21.0 73.7 280./10.8
24 21.0 74.8 269./10.2
30 21.1 75.9 273./10.4
36 21.5 76.9 293./ 9.7
42 22.0 78.2 292./13.6
48 22.2 79.5 278./12.3
54 22.5 80.5 288./ 9.8
60 23.1 81.5 304./10.8
66 23.6 82.3 299./ 8.6
72 24.2 82.9 315./ 8.1
78 24.9 83.5 317./ 8.9
84 25.5 84.2 311./ 8.7
90 25.9 84.8 305./ 6.6
96 26.2 85.1 323./ 4.6
102 26.6 85.5 313./ 5.5
108 27.0 85.9 310./ 4.9
114 27.2 86.5 292./ 5.3
120 27.2 87.1 275./ 5.3
126 27.3 87.8 274./ 6.6

[ROCK]

similar to 18z....

[Wx_Warrior]

A curve to the NE then heads due west (GFDL). If that's the case, 3 states (coastal areas) will have to evacuate.

[ROCK]

you can tell from the reduced speed the steering becomes weak after the trof passes then high builds and starts to head west with an increase in forward speed....at 126hr...

[Weatherfreak000]

That's definitely a shift East...still not buying this no trough solution though.

[ROCK]

A curve to the NE then heads due west (GFDL). If that's the case, 3 states (coastal areas) will have to evacuate.

I aint going anywhere.....learned my lesson...

[Wx_Warrior]

Come on trough. We need the trough. We like the trough.

[ROCK]

That's definitely a shift East...still not buying this no trough solution though.

looks slower rather than east....just put both runs side by side...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

No Trough! We hate the trough! Go away trough!

[perk]

A curve to the NE then heads due west (GFDL). If that's the case, 3 states (coastal areas) will have to evacuate.

I aint going anywhere.....learned my lesson...

Rock did you evacuate for Rita.