ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[lebron23]

90 percent

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 312335
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 31 20110731
200730 1400N 05514W 9807 00268 0111 +232 +226 112005 005 /// /// 03
200800 1400N 05516W 9806 00268 0111 +230 +226 102006 007 /// /// 03
200830 1359N 05517W 9806 00268 0111 +230 +225 104007 008 /// /// 03
200900 1358N 05519W 9806 00269 0111 +231 +225 099008 009 /// /// 03
200930 1357N 05521W 9806 00268 0111 +230 +224 089009 010 /// /// 03
201000 1356N 05523W 9806 00268 0111 +229 +223 093009 010 /// /// 03
201030 1355N 05524W 9805 00270 0111 +232 +223 100008 009 /// /// 03
201100 1354N 05526W 9805 00268 0112 +230 +222 102008 009 /// /// 03
201130 1353N 05528W 9806 00269 0112 +234 +222 123008 008 /// /// 03
201200 1352N 05530W 9805 00271 0112 +235 +222 131007 008 /// /// 03
201230 1351N 05531W 9806 00268 0112 +232 +222 117008 008 /// /// 03
201300 1351N 05533W 9806 00268 0111 +234 +222 122009 010 /// /// 03
201330 1350N 05535W 9806 00269 0112 +229 +221 123008 010 /// /// 03
201400 1349N 05537W 9813 00261 0113 +228 +219 117007 008 /// /// 03
201430 1349N 05539W 9807 00269 0112 +236 +216 157007 007 /// /// 03
201500 1349N 05541W 9807 00268 0112 +234 +215 158009 010 /// /// 03
201530 1349N 05543W 9803 00272 0113 +234 +215 162009 010 /// /// 03
201600 1349N 05545W 9807 00269 0113 +220 +216 151009 010 /// /// 03
201630 1350N 05547W 9805 00269 //// +190 //// 150011 012 /// /// 05
201700 1350N 05549W 9805 00265 0114 +191 //// 143010 012 /// /// 05
$$
;

[lester]

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES  
EASTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS  
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS  
A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING  
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.  
IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY...  
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF  
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT  
NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE  
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED  
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL  
CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND  
MONDAY.  


- לסטר

[bella_may]

the new nogaps run shows it entering the gulf friday

[KWT]

Yeah the Nogaps actually has got a decent starting point with this system, of course thats not to say the rest of it is any good!

[Florida1118]

18Z nogaps rolling in...Initialization show both vorts and they dumbell into one..


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Ain't that cute. Tracks towards central Cuba touching a lot of real estate on the way. And if I read the SLP right, reaches south florida as no more than a rain event.

that shows it entering the gulf friday

I dont even think its a tropical system by that time

[lester]

the new nogaps run sows it entering the gulf friday

the models are worth $.01 without a confirmed llc.

- לסטר

[gatorcane]

Down to 90%....that is where i have it right now:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
EASTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT
NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN

[Hurricaneman]

after the recon obs that just showed up, I can safely say this has no low level circulation or if there is its very diffuse, the midlevel circulation looks good though

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 312336
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 32 20110731
201730 1350N 05551W 9801 00271 0114 +203 +198 128013 015 /// /// 03
201800 1350N 05553W 9803 00271 0113 +227 +193 125013 013 /// /// 03
201830 1350N 05555W 9809 00266 0111 +235 +191 103013 013 /// /// 03
201900 1350N 05557W 9806 00269 0112 +236 +195 097014 015 /// /// 03
201930 1350N 05559W 9807 00267 0111 +239 +200 088013 014 /// /// 03
202000 1350N 05601W 9807 00268 0110 +240 +206 088012 012 /// /// 03
202030 1350N 05603W 9806 00269 0110 +240 +211 088013 013 /// /// 03
202100 1350N 05605W 9807 00266 0110 +239 +215 084014 014 /// /// 03
202130 1350N 05607W 9806 00266 0109 +239 +219 081014 015 /// /// 03
202200 1350N 05609W 9806 00267 0109 +240 +221 077015 015 /// /// 03
202230 1350N 05611W 9807 00265 0109 +239 +223 068015 015 /// /// 03
202300 1350N 05613W 9805 00268 0109 +237 +225 064015 016 /// /// 03
202330 1350N 05615W 9806 00267 0109 +239 +226 063015 016 /// /// 03
202400 1350N 05617W 9806 00266 0108 +240 +227 062015 016 /// /// 03
202430 1350N 05619W 9808 00263 0108 +240 +227 057014 015 /// /// 03
202500 1349N 05621W 9801 00270 0107 +240 +228 048011 013 /// /// 03
202530 1347N 05620W 9813 00261 0108 +240 +229 044008 008 /// /// 03
202600 1346N 05618W 9805 00268 0108 +240 +230 044008 009 /// /// 03
202630 1344N 05617W 9806 00267 0108 +240 +230 051008 008 /// /// 03
202700 1343N 05616W 9807 00265 0108 +240 +230 060008 009 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

another image ?

[HurricaneQueen]

Hi Aric,

Really enjoying your posts and observations, as always. Could you please provide the link for the RBG? I forgot to bookmark it and now it is several pages back-who knows where. LOL

Thanks.
Lynn

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 312337
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 33 20110731
202730 1341N 05614W 9809 00265 0109 +233 +230 070007 008 /// /// 03
202800 1340N 05613W 9808 00264 0109 +222 //// 052006 008 /// /// 05
202830 1339N 05612W 9807 00266 0108 +238 +223 086002 005 /// /// 03
202900 1337N 05610W 9807 00265 0109 +229 +217 170003 004 /// /// 03
202930 1336N 05609W 9805 00267 0108 +236 +213 128002 003 /// /// 03
203000 1335N 05608W 9807 00266 0108 +244 +211 144003 004 /// /// 03
203030 1333N 05606W 9804 00267 0108 +239 +212 082003 005 /// /// 03
203100 1332N 05605W 9808 00264 0107 +240 +215 092003 004 /// /// 03
203130 1330N 05604W 9800 00271 0108 +244 +218 162004 005 /// /// 03
203200 1329N 05602W 9808 00263 0108 +244 +220 179005 006 /// /// 03
203230 1328N 05601W 9805 00266 0107 +245 +223 182006 006 /// /// 03
203300 1327N 05600W 9807 00264 0106 +245 +225 182008 009 /// /// 03
203330 1327N 05558W 9805 00266 0107 +244 +227 166012 013 /// /// 03
203400 1329N 05557W 9808 00264 0107 +245 +229 150011 012 /// /// 03
203430 1330N 05556W 9805 00267 0107 +245 +230 147011 012 /// /// 03
203500 1332N 05555W 9809 00264 0107 +239 +231 132009 010 /// /// 03
203530 1334N 05554W 9806 00264 0107 +238 +231 108010 011 /// /// 03
203600 1336N 05554W 9806 00264 0107 +239 +231 114011 012 /// /// 03
203630 1338N 05554W 9805 00266 0109 +233 +230 126010 011 /// /// 03
203700 1340N 05555W 9807 00267 0110 +235 +228 117008 008 /// /// 03
$$
;

....................
000
URNT15 KNHC 312338
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 34 20110731
203730 1342N 05555W 9804 00270 0109 +233 +225 135007 007 /// /// 03
203800 1344N 05555W 9467 00563 0101 +222 //// 144009 010 /// /// 05
203830 1345N 05555W 8993 01021 0106 +198 //// 136010 011 /// /// 05
203900 1347N 05556W 8583 01421 //// +162 //// 150012 014 /// /// 05
203930 1349N 05557W 8225 01786 //// +144 //// 133011 016 /// /// 05
204000 1350N 05558W 7805 02238 //// +133 //// 201004 005 /// /// 05
204030 1351N 05600W 7455 02623 //// +113 //// 010001 003 /// /// 05
204100 1352N 05601W 7113 03018 //// +094 //// 060006 008 /// /// 05
204130 1352N 05603W 6837 03355 //// +078 //// 060008 009 /// /// 05
204200 1353N 05605W 6559 03694 //// +058 //// 060012 013 /// /// 05
204230 1354N 05606W 6313 04012 //// +044 //// 063012 014 /// /// 05
204300 1354N 05608W 6093 04309 //// +028 //// 059010 011 /// /// 05
204330 1355N 05610W 5878 04568 //// +010 //// 067008 008 /// /// 05
204400 1356N 05611W 5729 04783 //// -004 //// 057012 014 /// /// 05
204430 1356N 05613W 5702 04817 //// -007 //// 058012 013 /// /// 05
204500 1357N 05615W 5711 04799 //// -009 //// 053015 017 /// /// 05
204530 1358N 05618W 5713 04800 //// -009 //// 055015 017 /// /// 05
204600 1359N 05620W 5718 04792 //// -006 //// 060014 014 /// /// 05
204630 1400N 05623W 5718 04793 //// -008 //// 063013 014 /// /// 05
204700 1401N 05625W 5718 04794 //// -008 //// 063014 014 /// /// 05
$$
;


...........................
000
URNT15 KNHC 312339
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 35 20110731
204730 1402N 05628W 5716 04797 //// -006 //// 060013 013 /// /// 05
204800 1403N 05630W 5717 04793 //// -003 //// 057015 016 /// /// 05
204830 1404N 05633W 5716 04800 //// -007 //// 058014 015 /// /// 05
204900 1405N 05635W 5718 04797 //// -010 //// 055014 015 /// /// 05
204930 1406N 05638W 5717 04795 //// -012 //// 053013 014 /// /// 05
205000 1407N 05640W 5721 04790 //// -015 //// 059016 020 /// /// 05
205030 1408N 05642W 5717 04800 //// -014 //// 047019 020 /// /// 05
205100 1409N 05645W 5718 04795 //// -011 //// 049020 021 /// /// 05
205130 1410N 05647W 5717 04797 //// -014 //// 039017 019 /// /// 05
205200 1411N 05649W 5716 04802 //// -016 //// 044017 018 /// /// 05
205230 1411N 05652W 5716 04799 0094 -013 //// 040016 016 /// /// 05
205300 1412N 05654W 5717 04798 0099 -010 //// 037017 018 /// /// 05
205330 1413N 05656W 5726 04789 0100 -010 //// 055014 015 /// /// 05
205400 1414N 05658W 5721 04800 0100 -007 //// 054015 016 /// /// 05
205430 1415N 05700W 5717 04806 0097 -008 //// 044014 015 /// /// 05
205500 1415N 05702W 5717 04808 0099 -010 //// 056017 020 /// /// 05
205530 1416N 05703W 5711 04809 0095 -007 //// 064023 025 /// /// 05
205600 1417N 05705W 5712 04813 0093 -006 //// 064023 024 /// /// 05
205630 1417N 05707W 5715 04808 0093 -008 //// 067023 024 /// /// 05
205700 1418N 05709W 5715 04810 0097 -008 //// 066023 024 /// /// 05
$$
;

[ROCK]

wait for the end run....the LC does wonders on a former TC....

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

144hr....getting some life back...

[Aric Dunn]

Hi Aric,

Really enjoying your posts and observations, as always. Could you please provide the link for the RBG? I forgot to bookmark it and now it is several pages back-who knows where. LOL

Thanks.
Lynn

no prob

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[KWT]

Yep, pretty much as most of us expected, both myself and Aric said there wasn't the right kind of wind shifts from the obs that were out there for a LLC of any note down there.

Lets see if recon tomorrow has been luck with it, I suspect they probably will.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 312340
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 36 20110731
205730 1419N 05711W 5717 04806 0105 -010 //// 066024 025 /// /// 05
205800 1420N 05713W 5683 04852 0096 -012 //// 071024 025 /// /// 05
205830 1421N 05715W 5481 05161 0266 -020 //// 068023 025 /// /// 05
205900 1422N 05717W 5311 05413 0283 -038 //// 063020 023 /// /// 05
205930 1423N 05719W 5158 05642 0298 -053 //// 061020 020 /// /// 05
210000 1424N 05721W 5013 05863 0311 -063 //// 054022 023 /// /// 05
210030 1425N 05723W 4874 06084 0326 -075 //// 049020 021 /// /// 05
210100 1426N 05725W 4745 06294 0339 -086 //// 054020 021 /// /// 05
210130 1427N 05727W 4633 06479 0349 -096 //// 056022 022 /// /// 05
210200 1428N 05729W 4531 06650 0352 -102 //// 061020 022 /// /// 05
210230 1429N 05731W 4430 06813 0356 -111 //// 064018 018 /// /// 05
210300 1430N 05733W 4333 06985 0368 -123 //// 066018 018 /// /// 05
210330 1431N 05735W 4246 07135 0377 -126 //// 073021 022 /// /// 05
210400 1432N 05737W 4169 07273 0386 -134 //// 077023 024 /// /// 05
210430 1433N 05739W 4094 07418 0396 -143 //// 075024 024 /// /// 05
210500 1434N 05742W 4014 07568 0405 -158 //// 072023 025 /// /// 05
210530 1435N 05744W 3936 07710 0414 -172 //// 073020 021 /// /// 05
210600 1436N 05746W 3862 07853 0423 -177 //// 069022 022 /// /// 05
210630 1437N 05748W 3798 07977 0432 -187 //// 073022 023 /// /// 05
210700 1438N 05750W 3762 08053 0438 -192 //// 076021 021 /// /// 05
$$
;

[gatorcane]

One thing I am noticing with the models is that some of them are trying to build back some kind of ridging north of the Bahamas starting around 130 hours or so.

The BAMD, GFS, and even the HWRF seem to be bending it back WNW briefly before sending it north.

That is not a trend you want to see. But it is a long way out.

At least the GFDL, ECMWF, and CMC shoot it into the weakness before it can reach the U.S.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 312341
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 37 20110731
210730 1439N 05752W 3755 08066 0438 -195 //// 074021 022 /// /// 05
210800 1440N 05755W 3757 08058 0436 -195 //// 069021 021 /// /// 05
210830 1441N 05757W 3757 08061 0437 -195 //// 065021 021 /// /// 05
210900 1442N 05800W 3759 08053 0435 -195 //// 069024 025 /// /// 05
210930 1443N 05802W 3760 08054 0436 -199 //// 062024 025 /// /// 05
211000 1444N 05805W 3758 08059 0436 -198 //// 059026 026 /// /// 05
211030 1445N 05808W 3762 08049 0435 -199 //// 069030 031 /// /// 05
211100 1447N 05810W 3752 08070 0435 -199 //// 048026 027 /// /// 05
211130 1448N 05813W 3761 08051 0435 -195 //// 041024 025 /// /// 05
211200 1449N 05815W 3761 08056 0435 -201 //// 045024 025 /// /// 05
211230 1450N 05818W 3762 08053 0435 -200 //// 050026 027 /// /// 05
211300 1451N 05821W 3757 08069 0438 -198 //// 058023 024 /// /// 05
211330 1453N 05823W 3759 08060 0438 -200 //// 057023 023 /// /// 05
211400 1454N 05826W 3759 08057 0439 -196 //// 051022 022 /// /// 05
211430 1455N 05829W 3761 08059 0438 -195 //// 048023 024 /// /// 05
211500 1456N 05831W 3759 08063 0438 -197 //// 047024 024 /// /// 05
211530 1457N 05834W 3759 08055 0439 -201 //// 048022 023 /// /// 05
211600 1459N 05837W 3761 08062 0440 -200 //// 049022 023 /// /// 05
211630 1500N 05839W 3759 08063 0440 -199 //// 050024 024 /// /// 05
211700 1501N 05842W 3758 08061 0440 -196 //// 047022 023 /// /// 05
$$
;