ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

Thank you to the person who provided the cayman radar link. It’s actually not bad

https://www.weather.gov.ky/assets/images/radar/ppi_400km_1k.gif

Can you share the direct link to it?

[bonitabeachbum]

“ This graphic depicts the forecast storm surge inundation values that are provided in the tropical cyclone public advisory (TCP). These values represent the peak height the water could reach above normally dry ground somewhere within the specified areas.”

I have no idea what that means. It could reach that peak height over normally dry ground… they mean regardless of elevation? “Somewhere within the specified areas” is insanely vague. It’s so confusing, there has got to be a clearer way to put this. Does this make sense to you guys?

[eastcoastFL]

It should again be stressed that there is still significant
uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time
frame. Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.

11pm Disco… Kinda surprised they still have “significant uncertainty” given the GFS/EURO have generally moved towards an agreement from Big Bend to Tampa??

Honestly, my guess is that their uncertainty has more to do with the concern that the EURO or GFS might actually continue with easward shifts

That’s exactly what I think too. Right now they’re splitting the difference between the two but they know the GFS has been trending east and it may end up matching the euro later, that’s if the euro doesn’t move further east.

[Teban54]

Thank you to the person who provided the cayman radar link. It’s actually not bad

https://www.weather.gov.ky/assets/images/radar/ppi_400km_1k.gif

Can you share the direct link to it?

https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar

[Owasso]

 https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1574239966275706881

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092022_peak_surge+png/025518_peak_surge.png

“ This graphic depicts the forecast storm surge inundation values that are provided in the tropical cyclone public advisory (TCP). These values represent the peak height the water could reach above normally dry ground somewhere within the specified areas.”

I have no idea what that means. It could reach that peak height over normally dry ground… they mean regardless of elevation? “Somewhere within the specified areas” is insanely vague. It’s so confusing, there has got to be a clearer way to put this. Does this make sense to you guys?

I think it just means that the areas highlighted could see that many feet of water from surge. So if you’re in the orange area and you live on flat land you could have 7 feet of water in your house.

[eastcoastFL]

Thank you to the person who provided the cayman radar link. It’s actually not bad

https://www.weather.gov.ky/assets/images/radar/ppi_400km_1k.gif

Can you share the direct link to it?

https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar

Thank you for the link. It’s better than I expected and you can get a good idea of how the eye is developing.

[galaxy401]

Ian still looks to be moving more WNW instead of NW. The more west he goes, the more he can avoid Cuba.

This thread has also finally reached 100 pages. Expecting it to accelerate the next couple days, especially if Ian blows up...

[Owasso]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1574234919202611202




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1574240625486086144

[Hurricane Mike]

I have a feeling this may still go further east, the NHC didn't wanna be too drastic with the east shift yet due to the uncertainty.

[SouthernBreeze]

I'm starting to see a few models going back to the early track of crossing FL completely, then making a 2nd landfall further up east coast. Do you think these are flukes, or is this a possibility again? One showed an exit near New Smyrna Beach, FL, then another landfall in Edisto Beach, SC.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/FLweather_wx/status/1574242877202649088




Bad news for Tampa folks. The Shear machine won't kick in in time if its a direct hit on the City.

[canebeard]

1

[d3v123]

0z GFS took a jump back west

[Hurricane Mike]

11:45pm Video Update on Ian for anyone interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Oi2_jjOjRI

[canebeard]

No, I believe it was Camile but not sure. Other locals will know.

Elena cat 3,1985 track. Camille 1969 was much further offshore but still might have put some water over there, being a cat 5

[StPeteMike]

I have a feeling this may still go further east, the NHC didn't wanna be too drastic with the east shift yet due to the uncertainty.

East with the NHC still puts this right up the coast from roughly Tarpon to Cedar Key. I can’t see them being too influenced by the ICON which seems to have flung too far east, though a slim possibility.

[skyline385]

I have a feeling this may still go further east, the NHC didn't wanna be too drastic with the east shift yet due to the uncertainty.

East with the NHC still puts this right up the coast from roughly Tarpon to Cedar Key. I can’t see them being too influenced by the ICON which seems to have flung too far east, though a slim possibility.

NHC doesnt use the ICON afaik, its nowhere on their models page

[StPeteMike]

I have a feeling this may still go further east, the NHC didn't wanna be too drastic with the east shift yet due to the uncertainty.

East with the NHC still puts this right up the coast from roughly Tarpon to Cedar Key. I can’t see them being too influenced by the ICON which seems to have flung too far east, though a slim possibility.

NHC doesnt use the ICON afaik, its nowhere on their models page

Forgot they ignore it, thanks!

Still don’t think NHC will go as far east and south as ICON.

[canebeard]

Hurricane Elena

No, I believe it was Camile but not sure. Other locals will know.

Elena 1985 track. Camille was much further offshore, but still might have put water over there, being a cat 5
https://www.wkrg.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/49/2016/09/elena-track-1985_29535392_ver1.0.png?w=864&h=486&crop=1&resize=1280,720