ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Those eyewall hot towers look formidable.
Jamaica will likely get hit by some nasty eyewall vorticies.

[GCANE]

40mm/hr rain rate
95% RH at 850mb in the eye.
Coming in hot

[ScottNAtlanta]

Those eyewall hot towers look formidable.
Jamaica will likely get hit by some nasty eyewall vorticies.

...and the shape of Kingston's harbor is going to funnel surge right in making it worse due to the angle.

[3090]

Just checked vorticity and it still looks stacked. It isn't as of now tilted.

Shear from the west is lessening and will soon no longer be an impediment. I will not be surprised to see Beryl come together once again after she passes Jamaica.

And as far as the EURO goes. It is missed big time on intensity with Beryl. The latest EURO shows a more southern landfall along the Mexican coast. Not buying that solution as the EURO has the intensity essentially down to a TS.

[Tireman4]

From Matt Lanza

Hurricane Beryl was a resilient storm through much of yesterday, as its core managed to resist some of the shear Beryl began experiencing. Alas, Beryl's satellite presentation has degraded markedly this morning, with even the eye becoming filled with clouds. Beryl appears to finally be feeling the wind shear that was expected to impact the storm as it moved into the western Caribbean. That said, its on a beeline for Jamaica as a major hurricane and conditions should begin to deteriorate through the day today. Significant surge and wind, in addition to heavy rainfall should arrive in Jamaica today and continue into tonight. Despite the satellite presentation degrading, that is still a nasty core of the hurricane heading to Jamaica. For the Cayman Islands, surge and wind, in addition to heavy rain arrive late tonight or tomorrow. Total rainfall will be near or over a foot (300 mm) in eastern Jamaica, with widespread totals of 8 to 10 inches (200 to 250 mm) from the Caymans into Cozumel and the northeast Yucatan. As Beryl comes west, it is expected to maintain hurricane intensity as it approaches the Yucatan this weekend. The current forecast likely keeps the center of the storm south of Cancun and Cozumel, with a landfall likely near or south of Tulum. In recent days, the debate within modeling has been surrounding its intensity. A stronger storm was more likely to lift northwest toward the Houston area or Louisiana, while a weaker storm would stay farther south into Mexico or extreme south Texas. We seem to be approaching a mild consensus right now on that track. There are still a very, very small number of outliers bringing Beryl north of Matagorda Bay late this weekend. However, the vast majority of ensemble members and tropical models are now in decent agreement in bringing Beryl more on the southern half of the forecast envelope.


Track forecast consensus has started to increase a bit for late this weekend. As long as Beryl behaves as expected, there is moderate agreement that it will track between South Padre Island and Tampico, MX when it encounters the Gulf Coast.
For information specific to Houston, check out the latest at Space City Weather. But it would appear that this comes in well south of the Houston area. It will be important to check back again later today or tomorrow morning just to ensure that remains the case. The Yucatan will do a number on Beryl, but there may be a brief window for Beryl to regain strong tropical storm or hurricane status as it comes across the Bay of Campeche before coming ashore. One interesting wrinkle with Beryl, regardless of its intensity as it comes ashore in the western Gulf will be how fast it slams on the brakes. Beryl has been plowing west all week around 20 mph give or take. When it gets to the Gulf Coast, the strong high pressure that had been steering Beryl will begin to weaken some but not dissipate completely. Meanwhile, the West will be enduring a long-duration heat wave with strong high pressure over California.


The upper pattern is slowly coming into focus Sunday with Beryl growing increasingly unlikely to be "captured" by troughing over the Upper Midwest or northern Plains. Beryl could slow to a crawl over northern Mexico or far south Texas. That could lead to steering currents weakening and forcing Beryl to slow down substantially or even stall out for a short time over Mexico or far South Texas. When the "s" word gets thrown around, I know some folks in Texas can panic, but I want to be clear. This isn't a Harvey-redux. Even models that do show a stall keep rain totals far under that. That being said, this is a unique storm on its own and while rain would be extremely welcome in the Rio Grande and northern Mexico, too much rain can always cause issues. So we'll watch trends in the coming days closely. The current 7-day rainfall forecast through next Wednesday morning shows the potential for 5 inches of rain in far South Texas or northern Mexico. Higher amounts are likely in spots. Rain should transition to scattered thunderstorms into next week over Texas and Mexico.

[jaguars_22]

Has Matt Lanza not looked at the latest gfs? Misses Brownsville and comes up the coast over water! Then the second storm hits… I still have it hitting Seadrift tx my opinion

[3090]

Hot towers starting to fire around the core once again. Shear has lessened. Jamaica I fear is going to catch some really nasty wind as Beryl appears to making somewhat of a rebound prior to landfall. A strengthening system is not what you want to see approaching a landfall. But we’ll see what recon OFFICIALLY reports.

[Tireman4]

Has Matt Lanza not looked at the latest gfs? Misses Brownsville and comes up the coast over water! Then the second storm hits… I still have it hitting Seadrift tx my opinion

Well, I got this early this morning. He might have done this late last night. Matt Lanza, for those who do not know, is a pro met in Houston. He earned his BS in Meteorology from Rutgers. He is one of the many mets I read and trust. I am just relaying the information.

[jaguars_22]

Tireman, you’re right! He could have done it overnight
Weird storm

[Tireman4]

Tireman, you’re right! He could have done it overnight
Weird storm

His latest...
Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
·
35m
Still seems likely to miss Houston well south, but a rain/flooding scenario may evolve in far S Texas and Mexico next week.

[NDG]

12z sounding from Kingston Jamaica shows the circulation around Beryl al the up to the ULs.
SW UL winds it showed yesterday have moved west ahead of it. Not saying that the westerly shear is still not pinching on it but clearly its circulation is still stacked.

[LadyBug72]

Tireman, you’re right! He could have done it overnight
Weird storm

His latest...
Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
·
35m
Still seems likely to miss Houston well south, but a rain/flooding scenario may evolve in far S Texas and Mexico next week.

Where do you follow him at, if you don't mind my asking? Thank you!

[Tireman4]

Tireman, you’re right! He could have done it overnight
Weird storm

His latest...
Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
·
35m
Still seems likely to miss Houston well south, but a rain/flooding scenario may evolve in far S Texas and Mexico next week.

Where do you follow him at, if you don't mind my asking? Thank you!

https://theeyewall.com/

[3090]

12z sounding from Kingston Jamaica shows the circulation around Beryl al the up to the ULs.
SW UL winds it showed yesterday have moved west ahead of it. Not saying that the westerly shear is still not pinching on it but clearly its circulation is still stacked.

https://i.imgur.com/7YMsqlM.png

This is an awesome graphic to see.

[kevin]

Another NOAA recon pass 953.2 mb center with 24 kt winds so 951 - 952 mb.
138 kt FL winds, highest measured during these 2 recon missions so far, supports 120 - 125 kt. SFMR is a bit lower this time at 111 kt.
I expect NHC to keep it at 120 kt for now, but either way Beryl seems to be holding steady.

[tropicwatch]

Beryl does appear to be approaching Jamaica stronger than it was forecast too. The weakening phase seems to have subsided for the time being with the pressure staying steady and the cloud tops building again.

[tolakram]

latest loop


source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

VDM as of an hour ago

000
URNT12 KNHC 031303
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 03/12:40:40Z
B. 16.85 deg N 075.49 deg W
C. 700 mb 2722 m
D. 953 mb
E. 095 deg 12 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C36
H. 92 kt
I. 131 deg 11 nm 12:37:00Z
J. 214 deg 100 kt
K. 131 deg 10 nm 12:37:30Z
L. 123 kt
M. 309 deg 10 nm 12:43:30Z
N. 054 deg 131 kt
O. 310 deg 14 nm 12:44:30Z
P. 11 C / 3040 m
Q. 22 C / 3066 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 1402A BERYL OB 13
MAX FL WIND 139 KT 051 / 11 NM 11:33:30Z
;

[Sunnydays]

Youtube channel with multiple web cams being shown from Jamaica..live.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0E93nmFO1A

[toad strangler]

latest loop
https://i.imgur.com/gQzx7wh.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Looks quite robust/healthy to me