Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Quite bold for the day 3, yet I think days 4 and 5 are the big concern...

Day 4 is our day in Houston area, probably, along with the Western and Central Gulf Coast states...

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...

THE GFS REMAINS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF OPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE S-CNTRL U.S. ON DAY 4
/TUESDAY/. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE ALSO REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE GFS INDICATING A MORE NWD TRACK TO SURFACE LOW WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...IT APPEARS THAT A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE COLOCATED WITH VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE OVER THE ARKLATEX AND ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY 4 PERIOD.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO DAY 5 /WEDNESDAY/ OVER THE SERN STATES AND PERHAPS MID ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...
UNCERTAINTIES EXISTS IN THE TRACK OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
PRESENT. THEREFORE...NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED ATTM.

THEREAFTER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES LESS
PREDICTABLE...NAMELY BEYOND DAY 6 /THURSDAY/.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Off on the road trip to DFW, check out Houston as early as 7 am per the GFS



500 J/Kg helicity. And pretty decent CAPE for such an early hour. GFS storms not quite here yet at 7 am Tuesday

[jinftl]

To answer the title of the topic - next big severe outbreak is happening right now...real-time action in NW Georgia again...

[wbug1]

This a real bad outbreak. It's already been bad. Gainesville area is going to get hit bad, cells showing very strong radar presentation. I see a very strong TV signature approaching Gainesville, GA. I'm pretty sure there's a tornado on the ground about to move through Gainesville.

There is a very unusual weather pattern over the United States, and I don't know what's causing it. I hope NOAA are looking very carefully into this situation.

[CrazyC83]

This a real bad outbreak. It's already been bad. Gainesville area is going to get hit bad, cells showing very strong radar presentation. I see a very strong TV signature approaching Gainesville, GA. I'm pretty sure there's a tornado on the ground about to move through Gainesville.

There is a very unusual weather pattern over the United States, and I don't know what's causing it. I hope NOAA are looking very carefully into this situation.

This thread is for a whole new outbreak expected starting Monday. A separate thread exists for the current outbreak.

[Ed Mahmoud]

And it turned out yesterday's severe weather, with an apparent tornado hitting downtown Atlanta, was no slouch either.

Yesterday's ATL area outbreak was not well highlighted, IIRC. But Monday-Wednesday will probably be at least as bad. If I had to guess.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing a MDT for Day 2 tomorrow, and maybe even a Day 3 MDT for AR/LA/TX...

[RL3AO]

Shifted south for day 2.

NOTE: I put the two images over each other.

[CrazyC83]

At least we won't likely see a Palm Sunday Outbreak IV...and it looks like Tuesday will be the bad day.

Today's SLGT is a bit deceptive - the main threat is in the overnight hours into tomorrow morning it looks like.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 161721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...SRN PLAINS...
A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED-LOW OVER THE SWRN
STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES MONDAY. IN RESPONSE...A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT QUICKLY TRANSPORTING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO NORTH TX AND OK. DUE TO WARM ADVECTION
AND COLD AIR ALOFT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL
MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NORTH TX AND
OK. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY...A
DRYLINE WILL ORGANIZE FROM NCNTRL TX EXTENDING SSWWD INTO SOUTHWEST
TX. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH ACTIVATING THE DRYLINE
ACROSS WCNTRL TX AND OK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...MODEL FORECASTS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ESTABLISH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
RESULTING IN 50 TO 60 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT
IN THE INITIATION OF NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE DOMINANT
MODE OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS
THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL BE QUITE HIGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENT EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE DRYLINE INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES BY EARLY EVENING WITH GRADUAL VEERING AND STRONG
SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2 KM SUGGESTING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PERSIST DURING
THE EVENING...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY INTO NCNTRL
TX. CONCERNING CONVECTIVE MODE...A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURED MCS MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT WITH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT AFTER
06Z TUESDAY.

...OZARK PLATEAU/CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK REGION. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT MONDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...A SFC LOW WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE QUICKLY NEWD
ACROSS KS INTO MO MONDAY NIGHT. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE LOW SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S F AS CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A 80 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL
JET EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN KS AND MO...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND COLD AIR
ALOFT TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL.

..BROYLES.. 03/16/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1900Z (3:00PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Ed Mahmoud]

Both FWD and HGX discusions suggesting instability will be reduced by lack of mid-level dry air, and this will be more of a flooding threat.


The Dallas sounding isn't super-bad tornado wise, but with that combination of shear and CAPE, at least isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.


But with this much shear/helicity Tuesday morning around HOU, any discrete cell has an excellent chance of being tornadic, in my amateur opinion.





12Z GFS shows light wintry precip in North Texas next weekend,but I'll hold off on that until the severe wx/flood threat has passed.

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO PART OF NW TX/FAR WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 170449Z - 170545Z

WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
STRONGER CORES TO PRODUCE HAIL.

LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE SERN CORNER OF NM...WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING NNEWD INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE AND THEN NEWD THROUGH NWRN OK TO VICINITY OF THE
OK/KS BORDER. RECENT TSTMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN NM ARE LOCATED IN AN AREA OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP COOLER
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRENGTHENING SSELY LLJ ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NWWD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9
C/KM/ ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH NWD EXTENT. 03Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REACH THE DISCUSSION AREA
BETWEEN 07-09Z FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE. BY THAT TIME PERIOD...MUCAPE IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
500-1200 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KT SUPPORTING
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. INITIAL TSTMS SHOULD BE ROOTED BETWEEN 850-700
MB...WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..PETERS.. 03/17/2008

[Bunkertor]

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 1205 AM UNTIL 700 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BORGER TEXAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN/NW TX AS LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUE BENEATH STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING SW U.S. TROUGH /REF. MCD 431/. ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY
BE ELEVATED/HIGH-BASED...BUT BASES SHOULD LOWER WITH TIME AS
MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
THE THREAT FOR SVR HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21040.


...CORFIDI

WW0122 Initial Radar image

[RL3AO]

Day 2

SHOULD LATER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY
AND/OR SUGGEST A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

[CrazyC83]

Today seems right (the most likely MDT would be if the northern 10% tornado has a 15% put into it), but tomorrow is quite conservative IMO...

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 171243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE SRN
PLAINS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX TO SWRN MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLICATED SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE CNTRL/SCNTRL U.S.
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD TOWARD NRN MEXICO
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND A SHORT WAVE COMPONENT OF THIS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DETACHES...ACCELERATES ENEWD...AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES ABSORBED INTO AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM FLOW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY.

DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM TX TO THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WITHIN A BELT OF STRENGTHENING
SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE ERN FLANK OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG THIS ZONE...FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...AS WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY THE
LEADING SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING ENEWD.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE FORM OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/NRN MEXICO AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING NRN MEXICO UPPER
TROUGH. LIFT AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE
PLAINS FRONTAL ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND LOW LEVEL JET
REINTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LARGE SCALE TROUGH.

...TX/OK/KS/MO...
SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE NOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE
LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM TX/OK TO KS/MO WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD/SEWD
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THIS ZONE
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. A POTENT LOW LEVEL
JET OF 55-65KT IS CURRENTLY DIRECTED ACROSS THE FRONT FROM TX/OK TO
KS/MO. THE JET WILL EXPAND NEWD THROUGH TONIGHT...ENHANCING
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO
MO.

INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR /PWS AROUND 1 INCH/ AND BROAD REGION OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUSTAIN MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG
ALONG THE FRONT FROM NERN OK INTO KS/MO. GREATER INSTABILITY MAY
DEVELOP ALONG SRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT OVER OK LATER TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS. PERSISTENT ASCENT AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 30-40KT WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT
INTENSIFICATION AND HAIL POTENTIAL IN ANY QUASI-DISCRETE CELLS
EMBEDDED WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPANDING AND SPREADING
NEWD FROM TX/OK/KS THIS MORNING. RAPID STORM MOTION WITHIN FAST
AMBIENT FLOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AS CONVECTION
PASSES...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX THIS MORNING.

MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUGGEST A LULL IN TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS
PARTS OF TX/OK AROUND MIDDAY AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF MORNING
CONVECTION LIFTS NEWD ACROSS MO AND FARTHER AWAY FROM SOURCE OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY. AS LEADING DISTURBANCE BECOMES FURTHER
DETACHED FROM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT BECOMES DIRECTED OVER ERN KS/MO LATER TODAY...A WEAK COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION IS INDICATED IN MODEL FORECASTS ACROSS
WRN OK/TX PNHDL AREA.

...OK/TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
SYNOPTIC SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO TX WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING AND RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THESE FEATURES THROUGH THAT TIME. CONTINUED
INFLUX OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON LOW LEVEL SLY/SELY
FLOW...AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WILL SUPPORT MODEST TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. MUCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 500 J/KG
NORTH...TO OVER 1500 J/KG NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT COULD ATTAIN SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS AND
POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND GIVEN STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
50KT. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW EARLY COULD LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SRH COULD BE LOCALLY
ENHANCED NEAR FRONT/DRYLINE AND/OR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES IN THE WAKE
OF EARLIER STORMS THUS LOCALLY ELEVATING BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL
NEAR THESE FEATURES. GREATER SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL
IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY SOUTH TO THE RIO
GRANDE...AS SURFACE LOW AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE
STRENGTHENING AND EXTENSIVE FRONTAL ZONE...FROM SWRN TX NEWD ACROSS
THE OZARKS...AS LOW LEVEL JET REINTENSIFIES ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...OR BEING UNDERCUT BY DEVELOPING MCS OUTFLOW... COULD
STILL POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL. MEANWHILE...NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS
WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL TX THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF TX MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A MDT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. CURRENT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
DESTABILIZATION AND STORM EVOLUTION...IN ADDITION TO TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN/GRAMS.. 03/17/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1431Z (10:31AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Ed Mahmoud]

SPC MCD says much of North and Central Texas will be upgraded to MODERATE RISK at 1630Z


Outside, here in Bedford, TX, loading up the minivan for the windy return trip to Northern Harris County.

About 50 to 75% cloud cover of fairly low and shallow cu/strato-cu, with bright sun shining through the breaks, and South winds probaby in excess of 25 mph.


Looks favorable to me. We shal leave while the driving is as good as can be, in a minivan in high winds. Mostly a head wind, not as good for fuel economy as a tail wind, but better for driving than a crosswind.

[RL3AO]

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 171617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...

,..SRN PLAINS...
COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO NERN MEXICO WITH
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SWRN TX LATER TONIGHT. WHILE ONE SPEED MAX
NOW EXITING THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS ATTM THE PRIMARY
500MB 100KT WIND MAX WILL APPROACH S TX AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM SERN KS TO SWRN OK THEN WWD INTO ERN NM.
FROM A WEAK LOW CENTER E OF LBB A DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD INTO MEX
VICINITY RIO GRANDE BIG BEND.

THE WARM SECTOR E OF DRY LINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW LAYER OF VERY MOIST GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S NWD TO RED RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS CAPPED BY A
PRONOUNCED EML WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY IN EXCESS
OF 8C/KM.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP PARTICULARLY VICINITY DRY LINE AND
NEAR COLD FRONT NWRN TX. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AT LEAST 2000
J/KG AND THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR... THREAT FOR
SURFACE INITIATION WILL INCREASE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON VICINITY COLD
FRONT AND DRY LINE . STORMS ABLE TO FORM WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

BY THIS EVENING THE DRY LINE WHICH WILL LIKELY MIX EWD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO WCENTRAL TX WILL LIKELY RETREAT AHEAD OF STRONG
ASCENT AND UPPER JET APPROACHING FROM NERN MEXICO. EXACTLY WHERE
THE DRY LINE WILL SET UP THIS EVENING IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ALONG AND TO THE E WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THUS THE UPGRADE TO A MDT RISK FOR
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR THE EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS
AND EXPECTED THERMODYNAMICS. SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE AS LOW
LEVEL JET IN S TX BACKS AND INCREASES TO 50KT ENHANCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE MORE INTO A LINEAR MODE LATER TONIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR WIND DAMAGE EXTENDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX.

FURTHER N INTO OK AND LOWER MO VALLEY...MUCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT. A
LITTLE GREATER THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS INTO OK E OF COLD
FRONT WHICH WOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 03/17/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1624Z (12:24PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Ed Mahmoud]

About to leave, new SWODY1has hit the streets...



ack, just deleted snip of interest, as someone else has just posted the SWODY1. Slow typing has doomed me!