were are they going this year?

[weatherrabbit_tx]

dont know about the T.S. into texas, maybe, think next season is the one to watch for the texas coast. I know its been 25 years since alicia came to the upper coast and 47 years since carla, seems like the odd years have been bug-a-boos for the texas coastal areas. general area of speaking southwest of galveston.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think a tropical storm will hit florida in early june.
Just like in 2005 arlene, 2006 alberto, 2007 barry all of
which brought tropical storm or tropical depression conditions
to florida in early june!
That part is easy to predict because almost every single
year when a cold front moves into the Gulf in early June
a low forms and some years that low has enough time
and heat content to turn tropical like barry, alberto, arlene, etc.

But beyond early JUNE it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict it could be anything
from NO landfall to MAJOR landfalls. It is IMPOSSIBLE to tell there are TOO
many variables.

[Derek Ortt]

Although there is so much emphasis on "NYC", "Tampa", et al, no one mentions the Georgia coast...

That area's last hurricane was David 1979. Very few TCs (whether TS or hurricane) have directly struck the state's coast in recent decades. If you're going to mention a "statistically" overdue area, you must mention Georgia. It seems like other areas that have been recently affected (i.e. Miami/SE FL and TX) are more "popular" on this board, which makes no sense...

Most hurricanes that strike Georgia do so after moving through the Panhandle. That is the part of Georgia that needs to pay the closest attention to hurricanes, not so much the coastline (may be the only state on the hurricane coast here that is the case... except maybe New Hampshire)

[Derek Ortt]

dont know about the T.S. into texas, maybe, think next season is the one to watch for the texas coast. I know its been 25 years since alicia came to the upper coast and 47 years since carla, seems like the odd years have been bug-a-boos for the texas coastal areas. general area of speaking southwest of galveston.

and only less than 3 years since Rita struck the Upper Texas Coast

[Ed Mahmoud]

dont know about the T.S. into texas, maybe, think next season is the one to watch for the texas coast. I know its been 25 years since alicia came to the upper coast and 47 years since carla, seems like the odd years have been bug-a-boos for the texas coastal areas. general area of speaking southwest of galveston.

Strictly based on less than completely scientific methods, although I do have a system, Texas is completely in the clear. However, a strong hurricane, perhaps even a major, will hit near Miami from an unusual direction, across Cuba from the South.

This is Florida's year. 3 storms/hurricanes.


And remember, this is based on a minimum of research.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Georgia and New Hampshire both have relatively small coastlines, and Georgia's kind of recedes.

New Hampshire is even smaller, and I don't think SSTs get over 20ºC there on the warmest days.


Of course, Rhode Island is major tiny, but has a coastline perpendicular to the primary storm track, and storms hitting New York and Connecticut can bring storm surge there.




Downtown Providence.

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

dont know about the T.S. into texas, maybe, think next season is the one to watch for the texas coast. I know its been 25 years since alicia came to the upper coast and 47 years since carla, seems like the odd years have been bug-a-boos for the texas coastal areas. general area of speaking southwest of galveston.

Strictly based on less than completely scientific methods, although I do have a system, Texas is completely in the clear. However, a strong hurricane, perhaps even a major, will hit near Miami from an unusual direction, across Cuba from the South.

This is Florida's year. 3 storms/hurricanes.


And remember, this is based on a minimum of research.

A strike from the south IS the usual direction for Miami landfalls

[KWT]

Don't La nina's have a tendency for strikes on the Carolinas?

[MiamiensisWx]

Don't La nina's have a tendency for strikes on the Carolinas?

That's inconclusive. Multi-year strong La Ninas tend to produce above average probabilities for strikes along the Gulf and East Coasts. That's mainly because Ninas and a +AMO regime produce above average (though usually not hyperactive) seasons. Some studies have suggested that multi-year moderate/strong La Ninas are more strongly correlated to above average East Coast (FL through Maine) activity than the Gulf Coast. That does not imply that the Gulf Coast isn't affected in these Nina seasons; it implies that the Gulf and East Coasts feature above average probabilities for landfalls (versus averages), but the East Coast is higher versus the Gulf Coast, mainly because of greater Cape Verde activity in these seasons. In other words, more long-tracked TC development (and higher ACE) occurs, and these systems have greater chances to recurve prior to entering the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, FL is not out of the woods in these seasons. The risk is from FL to Maine, and the Gulf can be vulnerable to "homegrown" cyclogenesis. It should be noted that timing is very important, and a TC of Cape Verde origins can still hit the Gulf Coast in La Nina seasons.

Another thing to consider is the greater chances for late season development in the Caribbean. Some Nina (-ENSO) years are very strongly related with October/November development in the Caribbean Sea (i.e. November 1932, Mitch 1998, and Lenny 1999). Lower SLP tends to support reduced temperature inversions (i.e. fewer cases of low-level subsidence), thus allowing convection. Shear is often reduced due to the presence of an upper-level anticyclone. These late season systems can obviously affect Florida and the Gulf Coast after striking land such as the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, or Central America.

I know that the speculation is "part of the fun" for some people, but I usually despise these types of threads. They set unpleasant precedents. I usually stick to the "When will Storm A form?" or "First INVEST" threads, which are the only pre-season (wild and uneducated) guesses that I take on this site. They are also harmless "just for fun" topics, unlike these "Where will they go?" threads that usually lead to hype or unwarranted relaxation in some areas. We're better than that in the post-2004 and 2005 generation.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It is very difficult to forecast this far in advance. In 2006 and 2007 many
of my 1 week outlooks were completely wrong, so
my monthly outlooks are very inaccurate unfortunately. Also, in 2007 I expected
that the la nina would create a late season storm- which happened with noel
in the North caribbean and over the caribbean islands and the bahamas, but I
was thinking something like a category 3 or 4 in the NW caribbean due to
the la nina, but that did not happen. Forecasting is very difficult many times.
CMC creates many phantom storms; the models are getting better
and better with 3-5 day outlooks- remember with dean that the models
had it nailed 4-5 days out in terms of track- same thing with noel- when
many thought (including me) that noel might go west into SE florida
instead the models were correct keeping it offshore.

Predicting hurricanes can sometimes be a real puzzle. You almost
have to watch them constantly during the season to figure
out what might happen with them. It is a very difficult science
in my opinion.

When hurricane season comes I will begin my stormchasing expeditions
as usual. Until then I am going to monitor strong cold fronts and winter
low pressure areas. A storm chaser always needs something
to be fascinated with, and this time of year the spring storms
do the trick.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Recall also that in 2004, before August, almost NO ONE could
IMAGINE the hurricane fury that would hit Florida. There was not a SINGLE
named storm prior to the very end of July 2004; many thought including
me on the weather channel boards that the season would go with out
a single hurricane landfall anywhere in the entire basin.

But 2 months later, 4 hurricanes struck in an unprecedented atmospheric
rage. No one in south florida probably predicted Jeanne and Frances
back-to-back months in advance. It was not until 5 days in advance
that meteorologists knew of the tracks of the hurricanes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

dont know about the T.S. into texas, maybe, think next season is the one to watch for the texas coast. I know its been 25 years since alicia came to the upper coast and 47 years since carla, seems like the odd years have been bug-a-boos for the texas coastal areas. general area of speaking southwest of galveston.

Strictly based on less than completely scientific methods, although I do have a system, Texas is completely in the clear. However, a strong hurricane, perhaps even a major, will hit near Miami from an unusual direction, across Cuba from the South.

This is Florida's year. 3 storms/hurricanes.


And remember, this is based on a minimum of research.

A strike from the south IS the usual direction for Miami landfalls

Again, based on minimal to no research, just thinking of Andrew, Betsy, and Katrina.

[jasons2k]

This is an area I don't even touch until May-June, and even then it's not much better than a hunch for how things will setup for the peak of the season.

I agree with some of the "overdue" comments. Mother Nature could care less what happened last season, or the last 50 seasons. There is no statistically "safe" or "unsafe" place in the upcoming season based on what happend in 2007 or 1907 or all the years in-between.

It all depends on the setup at that specific time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This kind of thread is useless, but harmless. If the NHC issues a hurricane warning for a particular stretch of the coastline, nobody is going to ignore the evacuation orders just because Ed Mahmoud or some other Storm2K poster, 3 months before the season started, said their state was safe.

[Rainband]

Don't La nina's have a tendency for strikes on the Carolinas?

That's inconclusive. Multi-year strong La Ninas tend to produce above average probabilities for strikes along the Gulf and East Coasts. That's mainly because Ninas and a +AMO regime produce above average (though usually not hyperactive) seasons. Some studies have suggested that multi-year moderate/strong La Ninas are more strongly correlated to above average East Coast (FL through Maine) activity than the Gulf Coast. That does not imply that the Gulf Coast isn't affected in these Nina seasons; it implies that the Gulf and East Coasts feature above average probabilities for landfalls (versus averages), but the East Coast is higher versus the Gulf Coast, mainly because of greater Cape Verde activity in these seasons. In other words, more long-tracked TC development (and higher ACE) occurs, and these systems have greater chances to recurve prior to entering the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, FL is not out of the woods in these seasons. The risk is from FL to Maine, and the Gulf can be vulnerable to "homegrown" cyclogenesis. It should be noted that timing is very important, and a TC of Cape Verde origins can still hit the Gulf Coast in La Nina seasons.

Another thing to consider is the greater chances for late season development in the Caribbean. Some Nina (-ENSO) years are very strongly related with October/November development in the Caribbean Sea (i.e. November 1932, Mitch 1998, and Lenny 1999). Lower SLP tends to support reduced temperature inversions (i.e. fewer cases of low-level subsidence), thus allowing convection. Shear is often reduced due to the presence of an upper-level anticyclone. These late season systems can obviously affect Florida and the Gulf Coast after striking land such as the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, or Central America.

I know that the speculation is "part of the fun" for some people, but I usually despise these types of threads. They set unpleasant precedents. I usually stick to the "When will Storm A form?" or "First INVEST" threads, which are the only pre-season (wild and uneducated) guesses that I take on this site. They are also harmless "just for fun" topics, unlike these "Where will they go?" threads that usually lead to hype or unwarranted relaxation in some areas. We're better than that in the post-2004 and 2005 generation.

Bottom line is if anyone is foolish enough to listen to anyone but the pros, then thats their own fault. Second I see no harm is discussing topics like this, thats what our board is for. If you "despise"(kind of a harsh phrase) these kinds of threads then ignore them

[MiamiensisWx]

Bottom line is if anyone is foolish enough to listen to anyone but the pros, then thats their own fault. Second I see no harm is discussing topics like this, thats what our board is for. If you "despise"(kind of a harsh phrase) these kinds of threads then ignore them

Although most people will certainly listen to pertinent meteorological agencies (i.e. TPC), some (emphasis added) of the people who visit this board may read the opinions here, form their views, and take them too seriously. These threads can be harmful in some cases when the peak Atlantic season arrives. Most viewers are more sensible, but I don't underestimate the stupidity of some people online. We continually see cases that prove human ignorance (not stupidity) and stupidity leads to poor decisions. This board is based on the professional meteorologists, but it is also based on the general public, many of whom comprise the majority of this place's viewers. Most (the MAJORITY) of the people here are much more aware than others, but there is always that "other" percentage, too...

"Despise" may be harsh, but I have a large vocabulary (unfortunately), so you can ignore it. It's my "personality" here and elsewhere, but I usually avoid those "harsh" terms...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Fellow stormchasers, I don't see us tracking anything before the first
week of june. Conditions are springlike as usual over the tropics.

In the mean time, I'll chase spring storm cells when we get a strong
front down into florida.

[Rainband]

Bottom line is if anyone is foolish enough to listen to anyone but the pros, then thats their own fault. Second I see no harm is discussing topics like this, thats what our board is for. If you "despise"(kind of a harsh phrase) these kinds of threads then ignore them

Although most people will certainly listen to pertinent meteorological agencies (i.e. TPC), some (emphasis added) of the people who visit this board may read the opinions here, form their views, and take them too seriously. These threads can be harmful in some cases when the peak Atlantic season arrives. Most viewers are more sensible, but I don't underestimate the stupidity of some people online. We continually see cases that prove human ignorance (not stupidity) and stupidity leads to poor decisions. This board is based on the professional meteorologists, but it is also based on the general public, many of whom comprise the majority of this place's viewers. Most (the MAJORITY) of the people here are much more aware than others, but there is always that "other" percentage, too...

"Despise" may be harsh, but I have a large vocabulary (unfortunately), so you can ignore it. It's my "personality" here and elsewhere, but I usually avoid those "harsh" terms...

As do I . I see your points but I don't wanna turn away the amateurs that are trying to learn and the enthusiasts. We can do that with respect for the pros as well. This is harmless discussion...far from official or set in stome by any means

[Cryomaniac]

Bottom line is if anyone is foolish enough to listen to anyone but the pros, then thats their own fault. Second I see no harm is discussing topics like this, thats what our board is for. If you "despise"(kind of a harsh phrase) these kinds of threads then ignore them

Although most people will certainly listen to pertinent meteorological agencies (i.e. TPC), some (emphasis added) of the people who visit this board may read the opinions here, form their views, and take them too seriously. These threads can be harmful in some cases when the peak Atlantic season arrives. Most viewers are more sensible, but I don't underestimate the stupidity of some people online. We continually see cases that prove human ignorance (not stupidity) and stupidity leads to poor decisions. This board is based on the professional meteorologists, but it is also based on the general public, many of whom comprise the majority of this place's viewers. Most (the MAJORITY) of the people here are much more aware than others, but there is always that "other" percentage, too...

"Despise" may be harsh, but I have a large vocabulary (unfortunately), so you can ignore it. It's my "personality" here and elsewhere, but I usually avoid those "harsh" terms...

That's what disclaimers are for, and is why I put one on my earlier post in this thread.