Years with a huge midwest flood to tropical activity.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB has been saying the next upward motion phase of the MJO should arrive in our part of the world centered about July 10th based on 40 day reoccurence. Lets see if something at least tries to get going then. If it does, it would be pretty early in the season, as normally June and July combine for just over 1 named storm per year.


CFS forecast

[hurricanetrack]

In reference to Frank2's comment about "constant East Coast troughs", well, there may be one over the eastern CONUS now, but dad gumb it, look at first part of June in the East and Southeast. Temps were in the upper 90s to low 100s with a west wind for more than a week straight! Dry conditions settled back in and crops have begun suffering in the eastern Carolinas. There absolutely has not been constant East Coast troughs since June 1. Why? Then explain how the flooding in the Midwest took place where the trough and upper level energy has been stuck. Trough/upper level energy there- big arsed heat ridge over the East. Troughs coming by have been weak and certainly not longitudinal in nature. Also, had we seen numerous troughs digging in, we would see much more in the way of left overs in the Gulf and northern Caribbean- a potential for sparking tropical cyclone formation.

Besides, troughs get too much credit for being a benefit. Ask anyone who lived in Punta Gorda, FL on August 13, 2004. They abhore the East Coast trough. I could go on with other examples of when East Coast troughs ruined plenty of lives when interacting with hurricanes.

['CaneFreak]

In reference to Frank2's comment about "constant East Coast troughs", well, there may be one over the eastern CONUS now, but dad gumb it, look at first part of June in the East and Southeast. Temps were in the upper 90s to low 100s with a west wind for more than a week straight! Dry conditions settled back in and crops have begun suffering in the eastern Carolinas. There absolutely has not been constant East Coast troughs since June 1. Why? Then explain how the flooding in the Midwest took place where the trough and upper level energy has been stuck. Trough/upper level energy there- big arsed heat ridge over the East. Troughs coming by have been weak and certainly not longitudinal in nature. Also, had we seen numerous troughs digging in, we would see much more in the way of left overs in the Gulf and northern Caribbean- a potential for sparking tropical cyclone formation.

Besides, troughs get too much credit for being a benefit. Ask anyone who lived in Punta Gorda, FL on August 13, 2004. They abhore the East Coast trough. I could go on with other examples of when East Coast troughs ruined plenty of lives when interacting with hurricanes.

I agree 100% there Mark. Hurricane Wilma in 2005 could easily be added to your list there as a hurricane that loved that good ole East Coast trough. It went from a Category 1 coming off of the Yucatan to a Category 3 I believe it was before it hit FL.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It would seem to depend on the troughs orientation as well. A trough taking on a negative tilt near the East Coast would seem, intuitively, to favor landfall along the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast coast.


And it would seem to depend on the strength and location of the trough in relation to the storm, as some troughs seem to bend the track of the storm and then move on before recurvature starts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Storms have reached the North Loop, the sea breeze is over the South Loop, should meet darned close to downtown, but again, my lawn looks shortchanged unless Southward moving line can expand in size faster than it propagates Southward.


Wrong thread....

[Category 5]

Question:

What is today's date?

Answer: June 19

Any further questions? Send them to donotworrythehurricaneseasonisaliveandwell@yahoo.com

Agree completely. We shouldn't be trying to link an inactive season to things in June.

Besides, technically, we're on pace with 2005.

[boca]

Question:

What is today's date?

Answer: June 19

Any further questions? Send them to donotworrythehurricaneseasonisaliveandwell@yahoo.com

Agree completely. We shouldn't be trying to link an inactive season to things in June.

Besides, technically, we're on pace with 2005.

You are right and we need to have Bertha by June 28th to be on pace with 2005.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2005.asp

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Atlantic is much cooler then 2005. Also pressures are higher, so don't expect another 2005.

[weatherwindow]

matt...let me restate my earlier question ....given that it appears that the 08 la nina is fading to a sustained "neutral", which, if any, of the years you have listed are enso neutral?....thanks for the info.....rich

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

In the short run...1997-1998 was a major El nino and 1993 was also one. 1987 also a El nino. But anyways I don't really know about the others.

[Category 5]

The Atlantic is much cooler then 2005. Also pressures are higher, so don't expect another 2005.

It was a joke.

[Windtalker1]

Maybe this will help the discussion:

Negative PDO: 1900-1924, 1947-1976, 1999-??

La Niña
1904 1907 1909 1910 1911 1917 1918 1921 1923 1950 1951 1955 1956 1963 1965 1968 1971 1972 1974 1975 1976 1999 2000 2001

ENSO Neutral
1901 1902 1908 1913 1916 1922 1947 1948 1949 1953 1954 1957 1960 1961 1962 1967 2002

El Niño
1900 1903 1905 1906 1912 1914 1915 1919 1920 1924 1952 1958 1959 1964 1966 1969 1970 1973

Positive PDO: 1925-1946, 1977 - present

La Niña
1925 1932 1934 1938 1939 1943 1944 1945 1984 1985 1986 1989 1996

ENSO Neutral
1927 1928 1929 1933 1935 1936 1937 1946 1979 1981 1982 1990 1991 1993 1994 1997

El Niño
1926 1930 1931 1940 1941 1942 1977 1978 1980 1983 1987 1988 1992 1995 1998