EPAC KARINA: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Karina won't be anything close to its name-cousin in the Atlantic. This may be peak.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Karina won't be anything close to its name-cousin in the Atlantic. This may be peak.

When i saw this name i nearly messed myself..But then saw it was missing a letter..

[Chacor]

18 hours only to get your guesses in on Karina.

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102988&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[wyq614]

12:10

If we also count TD Five-E

[bob rulz]

They probably issued the special advisory because they realized they'd likely miss their chance if they didn't.

[HurricaneRobert]

WTH? Oh wait...

Great name, guys

[cycloneye]

WTPZ42 KNHC 022032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122008
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2008

A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS VERY
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO PERSISTENT
EASTERLY SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR WILL
DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN CALLING FOR A SLOW DECAY OF
KARINA. IF KARINA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL REACH THE
26C SST ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY
DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW.

WITH MORE VISIBLE IMAGERY I AM MORE CONFIDENT IN THE CURRENT INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/9. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WEAKEN
KARINA VERY QUICKLY AND LEAVE ITS REMNANTS TO MEANDER OR DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE HWRF KEEPS KARINA
TOGETHER LONGER AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
AGAIN...I AM GOING TO ASSUME THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN CONNECTED
TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AND MOVE MOSTLY WESTWARD FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AS IT WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS NO MODEL THAT SHOWS THIS TRACK EXPLICITLY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 19.5N 112.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 19.7N 113.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 20.0N 114.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 20.2N 115.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 20.1N 116.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[WmE]

LLC now completely exposed.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

492
WTPZ42 KNHC 030229
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122008
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KARINA HAS
WEAKENED AND THE CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE DROPPING...THUS THE WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 30 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE UPPER
WINDS ONLY LESSENING A BIT IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS FROM THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE A RATHER STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
DEPRESSION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW DROP IN INTENSITY...AND SO
DOES THE NHC FORECAST. KARINA MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN
SHOWN IN THE FORECAST IF CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS PERSIST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6. SOME RIDGING IS FORECAST
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION. ASSUMING THAT KARINA REMAINS WEAK...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
CAUSE A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IN FEW DAYS...AND
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF KARINA COULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS JUST A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 20.0N 112.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 20.4N 113.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 20.7N 115.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 20.7N 115.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 05/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 031428
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122008
800 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2008

KARINA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW ESSENTIALLY A SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO AROUND 25 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. WITH THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS...STABLE
AIR...AND STRONG SHEAR...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/4. NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE
REMNANT LOW SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.2N 114.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.3N 114.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 04/1200Z 20.3N 115.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 05/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

Sayonara.

[bob rulz]

It's dead. Any bets that this storm would've been missed even 5 years ago? It almost wasn't worth it...

[Scorpion]

Ugh, its so annoying how just as the Atlantic catches up the EPAC spins up another worthless TS.