Last Significant ATL TC about a week away?

[Wx_Warrior]

What, the NOGAPS and CMC?

[jinftl]

Dr. Jeff Masters mentions this on his blog today...

A better chance for development will be over the Caribbean a week from now, and most of the models indicate the possibility of a Caribbean storm developing a 6-8 days from now.



http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1117&tstamp=200810

[wyq614]

!Vicente! amigo, hola. I'm glad you are doing good. From the Olympics to Cuba jejeje.. !nice!
By the way, the ECWMF and the CMC are smelling something.

Hola Felipe, como ECWMF ha insistido que un ciclón se formarán en el caribe y tocarán tierra en Cuba en sus pronósticos varias veces. Parece más probable que yo voy a experimentar un ciclón aquí en Cuba. Además, EC ha hecho muy bien en los prónosticos de ciclones este año, tanto en cuanto a trayectoria como intensidad. Que nos toque la suerte. En Cojímar hay 100 estudiantes chinos, y en Tarará hay más que 2000, la mayoría de ellos son oriundos de las provincias chinas que no tienen salida del mar

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro is persistent, but the time frame keeps creeping back...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Euro Has been the Winner in picking out Dev this year IMO so Im watching..

[Blown Away]

:uarrow:

Euro Has been the Winner in picking out Dev this year IMO so Im watching..

Looks like that run is a little farther N and W. I think the Euro had this system going over E Cuba before.

[DESTRUCTION5]

:uarrow:

Euro Has been the Winner in picking out Dev this year IMO so Im watching..

Looks like that run is a little farther N and W. I think the Euro had this system going over E Cuba before.

Yea that looks more like a Classic Mid-Late Oct Storm...Looks like a Strong TS depicted here...

[DESTRUCTION5]

2) MJO pulse, no creating Odile, but likely to create Caribbean hurricane early next week with wailing and gnashing of eastern forecasters' teeth between the 20th and 25th.

Snippet frome everyones Fav JB this morning...

[Blown Away]

2) MJO pulse, no creating Odile, but likely to create Caribbean hurricane early next week with wailing and gnashing of eastern forecasters' teeth between the 20th and 25th.

Snippet frome everyones Fav JB this morning...

Does JB think it will be SFL bound, E of SFL, or Cent America bound?

[ronjon]

12Z GFS jumping on the Euro Train for development.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Speaking of JB, he believes the wave approaching the Caribbean, the one Gustywind started a thread for, will be what develops.

[DESTRUCTION5]

2) MJO pulse, no creating Odile, but likely to create Caribbean hurricane early next week with wailing and gnashing of eastern forecasters' teeth between the 20th and 25th.

Snippet frome everyones Fav JB this morning...

Does JB think it will be SFL bound, E of SFL, or Cent America bound?

He was not calling for landfalls...But him and his happy finger just pointed it coming out of the Carribean and heading NE so if the threat exists im saying its FL,Cuba,Bahamas or Bust...

[cycloneye]

Hello Carolinas!



12z GFS Loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Blown Away]

Hello Carolinas!



12z GFS Loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Most likely have to go through SFL to make it to Carolinas!

[gatorcane]

closest point to South Florida but we are talking 312 hours out so....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yea 312hrs away =Never happen as forecasted...

[ronjon]

12Z Euro takes a tropical cyclone into the Yucatan while the GFS shoots it NE through the FL straits - about the only thing we might be able to say now is that cyclogenesis seems to be in the cards in the western caribbean in 7 or 8 days.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008100912!!!step/

[Blown Away]

:uarrow:

Yea 312hrs away =Never happen as forecasted...

I know, but it is something to talk about. I'm thinking there will be no more CONUS landfalls for 2008 anyway.

[boca]

Here's just another GFS fantasy run at 360 hrs now instead of 312hrs earlier posted. This is the 00GFS run.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_372m.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro has been slowly shifting West past four days, Eastern Cuba to Western Cuba now to Central America.



BTW, checking Penn State tropical e-Wall, I incorrectly stated Eastern Carib system would be the trigger. 850 mb vort fields for Euro show system North of Colombia is what will develop.




BTW, I don't think 97L will meet my definition of a "significant" tropical cyclone, in that it won't menace any land with slight possible exception of Bermuda, in my unofficial and humble opinion. Long wave troughs just have to much amplitude for it to come very far West.