BOB: DEEP DEPRESSION (TC 07B) - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

It's tough for anything to form in December in the northern hemisphere. Decent conditions don't come all that often.

[Chacor]

It's tough for anything to form in December in the northern hemisphere. Decent conditions don't come all that often.

December is a peak of the NIO season, actually.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better. NRL: 35 knots

[HURAKAN]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-12-2008

Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 1400 utc OF 05 DECEMBER, 2008 based on 1200 UTC of 05 DECEMBER, 2008 (.)

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HOURS IST OF TODAY, THE 05TH DECEMBER, 2008 NEAR LAT. 8.50 N AND LONG. 87.50 E, 950 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, 850 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM AND 700 KM EAST OF TRINCOMALEE (SRI LANKA).

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHEAR PATTERN WITH INTENSITY T2.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL AREA BETWEEN LAT. 7.00 N AND 12.00 N AND WEST OF LONG. 87.00 E.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1004 HPA. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -600C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WIND SHEAR TENDENCY SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NEAR THE CENTRE AND RISE BY 5-10 KNOTS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM DURING PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 120N. HENCE, THE SYSTEM LIES IN FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ZONE FOR INTENSIFICATION.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS TAMIL NADU & PUDUCHERRY COASTS SKIRTING NORTH SRI LANKA COAST DURING NEXT 72 HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, THE ESTIMATED FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW.

Link: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.htm

[Chacor]

That's the 1200 UTC bulletin, HURAKAN. IMD don't do overnight bulletins for non-named storms, if I recall correctly.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTIN01 DEMS 060000
------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HOURS. FROM 0100UTC OF 06/12/2008 .
=================================================================
PART I :-THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SE BAY OG BENGAL MOVED
WESTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED AT 0230 HOURS IST OF
THE 06TH DECEMBER 2008 NEAR LAT 8.5 DEG. NORTH
AND LONG 87.0 DEG EAST ABOUT 900 KMS SOUTH EAST
OF CHENNAI (,) THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION(.) UNDER ITS INFLUENCE RAINFALL AT MOST
PLACES WITH ISOL HEAVY TO VERY FALLS LIKELY OVER
COASTAL TAMILNADU AND PUNDUCHERRY COMMENCING FROM 6TH
DECEMBER NIGHT(.) SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 55-65
KMPH GUSTING TO 75 KMPH ARE LIKELY ALONG AND OFF T-NADU
AND PUNDECHERRY COAST COMMENCING FROM 07TH DEC 2008
MORNING (.) SEA CONDITION WILL BE VERY ROUGH TO HIGH
ALONG AND OFF T-NADU PUNDUCHERRY COAST(.) FISHERMEN
ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

0230 hours IST = 2100 hours UTC

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

06/0830 UTC 7.9N 84.5E T2.5/2.5 07B -- Bay of Bengal

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Don't count this one out just yet.

[HURAKAN]

AT 081200Z, THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 78.8E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, AND HAD TRACKED GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS AFTER MOVING OVER WATER WEST OF SRI LANKA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A 081219Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WEAK LLCC WITH NO EVIDENCE OF FORMATIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY DISORGAN- IZED AND IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1009 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION, WEAK LLCC AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

AT 0814230Z, THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 78.5E, APPROXIMATELY 84 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, AND HAD TRACKED GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS AFTER MOVING OVER WATER WEST OF SRI LANKA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A 081219Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WEAK LLCC WITH NO EVIDENCE OF FORMATIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY DISORGAN- IZED AND IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1009 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION, WEAK LLCC AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

09/0230 UTC 6.9N 77.5E T1.5/2.0 07B

[Sanibel]

Appears to be a relocation to the SW.