Excited about the 2009 season or sad to see it coming

[Jinkers]

We all get excited to see a storm form, and see what it's going to do, tho no one wants anyone to get hurt by it.

[Category 5]

If I controlled Hurricane season, I'd make about 15-20 odd, unique, and powerful storms per year.............








In the middle of freakin nowhere.

Sadly, the world isn't mine (yet) so we have to take it how it comes and what happens happens. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

[Brent]

Can't wait!

[Cyclone1]

Exited to see new tracks, but really much less exited than I was last year.

Got a lot of stuff on my mind: filming a short film for the Screamfest Film Festival 2009, and my music production.

Still... I'll get exited to see the first INVEST.

[Hurricaneman]

I absolutly love the fish storms, but hate the destruction of a landfalling storm

[Ed Mahmoud]

Even when it is close to home, it is all a matter of degree.


Following the models, and then satellite, radar, and buoy data on Edouard, that was fun. A little wind, some much needed rain.


Ike, - a lot of money buying storm supplies, boarding windows, no power and missed college and pro-football games, my wife's grand-dad's ("Popo") vacation spot, where much meat was BBQd, a lot of fishing was done, and much tequila and cerveza consumed, on the island destroyed, and almost two missed weeks of school for my kids and school teacher wife means no President's Day holiday and an extended school year.

All a matter of how strong a storm is.


About as rare as hurricanes are around here, but snow is more fun, and the excitement of model watching in the mid range, and monitoring temps in Siberia, Alaska, and Canada, that is all there too.

Not the interest on this board for winter weather excitement, but all the fun, and less damage.

[MiamiensisWx]

All a matter of how strong a storm is.

Strength is a negligible factor with regards to TCs' "destructive" potential. As I've mentioned, the regional topography, the size of the TC's wind field, the RMW size, the angle of approach, the pre-landfall intensity trends, the forward speed, and other factors influence the duration and extent of TS/hurricane force winds. It also quantifies the "destructive" potential of the TC. Edouard was not destructive because of its relatively compact wind radii. The strongest winds also affected a relatively sparsely populated swath of southeastern Texas. Of course, you and I know that Ike produced TS/Category 1 winds in most areas, yet the wind damage and surge destruction was significant.

As an aside, the modern Saffir-Simpson Scale's criteria are based solely on maximum sustained winds. This fact (and other evidence) strengthens the argument that surge should be completely separated from the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Historically, the Saffir-Simpson Scale originally pertained to surge and minimum central pressure; however, these standards have changed. Surge projections should adapt to modern adjustments. Unfortunately, the Saffir-Simpson Scale still retains a "general" surge range for wind based categories, since an effective alternative scale for surge has not been devised. Consequently, my fears were realized when Galveston emergency managers struggled to reconcile the NHC's 20-25' surge forecasts with the lower Saffir-Simpson range for hurricanes with winds of Category 2 intensity. Understandably, it was difficult to trust the NHC when their forecasts vastly differed from the Saffir-Simpson surge ranges. I believe this situation represents the current problem, since surge (as we know) is entirely influenced by other factors (as opposed to the maximum sustained wind). Surge MUST be separated from the modern Saffir-Simpson Scale. If we fail to separate them, we will continue to experience similar situations in which emergency managers struggle. This scenario was demonstrated by Ike.

It's also easy to focus solely on winds and surge - in reality, TCs produce a plethora of multi-faceted hazards, including heavy precipitation, flooding, tornadoes, and high winds over inland areas. These factors (like surge) are not correlated with intensity; they are correlated with the synoptic and thermodynamic environment surrounding the TC/STC. One of my biggest fears is a significant TC/STC tornado outbreak in southern Florida. In fact, Hurricane Agnes (1972) produced one of the most significant tornado outbreaks recorded in the state. The outbreak included 28 tornadoes, including 11 F2-F3 events. Two of the tornadoes killed seven people near LaBelle and Okeechobee, respectively. If you're unfamiliar with the threat of TC tornadoes in Florida, the following link is a good resource. You'll be surprised (and more aware) when you traverse it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Hurricane_Agnes_tornado_outbreak

Another significant TC outbreak was associated with Hurricane Isbell (1964), which produced three F2 tornadoes from Brevard County to Broward County. TCs can also produce violent tornadoes, as demonstrated by Hurricane Hilda (1964). Hilda produced a F4 tornado near Larose, Louisiana, killing 22 people near the town. In 1967, Hurricane Beulah produced at least 115 tornadoes, including numerous strong (F2-F3) tornadoes.

[Stormcenter]

Very sad to see it coming. I've had enough hurricane seasons to last a lifetime. Anyone who is excited hasn't been through enough bads ones. JMHO

[Stormcenter]

What is there to "celebrate"? What is "fun" about hurricane season?

Excited because the start of the season is a time of celebration. Once the season starts, I get to come on here and dissect the storm with you guys for 6 months. I guess I would be sad, because the anticipation of the start of the season goes away, and it is fun to count down the days till the upcoming season.

[Downdraft]

Neither excited or sad to see it come rather I'd say I'm keenly interested. Oh yes, watching a big cane roll around the Atlantic is fun but I guess I've just seen that buzz saw headed someone's way to many times to feel excited about it. I guess I've seen so much I just detach myself from it now.

[cycloneye]

I dont see the big anticipation by the peeps that other past seasons.The main indicator is the slow pace that the 2009 poll is running,but also the posting at Talking Tropics forum has not been in an active pace like in past years by this time only 6 weeks before the season starts.Lets see if the last few weeks before June 1 brings much more discussions about the 2009 tropics and much more numbers to the poll.I guess the talk of El Nino possibly surfacing in 2009 is like a no-no to some.

In case some of you are comming for the first time this year to Talking Tropics forum,the 2009 numbers poll is located at the announcements section at the top of the forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104788&start=0

[hurricanetrack]

Maybe a lot of people are now unemployed and cannot afford Internet access anymore and that's why less people are participating in the poll, etc. Seriously- that could be it. Or they are working 100 hours a week just to pay their bills and have no time for Storm2k. Something has to explain the apparent disconnect. Maybe it will all pick up again in June.

[PTrackerLA]

There's just not much to talk about yet and I for one have been paying more attention to the news and our economy than trying to figure out what kind of season we're going to have. Just wait until we have our first real invest by late May/June and this place will pick back up again. I had a "feeling" last season would be a doozy and it sure was for these parts and I just don't have that same feeling this year...which means nothing really .

[AirNik]

What is there to "celebrate"? What is "fun" about hurricane season?

Idk, just like tornado chasers get excited for tornado season. It's fun tracking storms and experiencing them. Maybe not everyone thinks that but there's nothing wrong with it.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Excited because it means summer's here and I'm the warm weather type. However, I do not, repeat do not, want any hurricanes anywhere near my sphere of reality. That doesn't mean I'm any less of a weather freak, but I can get my adrenaline rush sky-diving.

[olddude]

You'd be lying if you said you didn't look forward to hurricane season or else you wouldn't be here. I love tracking/discussing storms and even enjoy experiencing them, just as long as it's not really bad.

Yep, I get excited...in a strange sort of way. I spend a good deal of time and money being prepared and I do love the strange vibe that is given off down here by the the folks making last minute preps. Most of the tourists are gone so it is the locals that are pulling boats out and finishing fuel fill ups. Helping each other close up homes and checking on the older residents, everyone moving just a bit quicker than the normaly slow pace of summer in the Keys. As the final count down begins the most common goodbye heard is ..."See ya on the other side".

The excitement of the storm itself, the raw power of nature.

Then the commraderie of cleanup begins. Sure, it is a nightmare for some, not just the hard work and financial pain, but we see flashes of the Keys of old. Helping out your nieghbors or people you have never met before.

On the other hand if it is a Cat 5...well I think all of the romantic shine I just put on the situation will totally vanish only to be replaced by pain.

Let's hope none of us experience The Big One.

Scott

[CrazyC83]

You'd be lying if you said you didn't look forward to hurricane season or else you wouldn't be here. I love tracking/discussing storms and even enjoy experiencing them, just as long as it's not really bad.

Yep, I get excited...in a strange sort of way. I spend a good deal of time and money being prepared and I do love the strange vibe that is given off down here by the the folks making last minute preps. Most of the tourists are gone so it is the locals that are pulling boats out and finishing fuel fill ups. Helping each other close up homes and checking on the older residents, everyone moving just a bit quicker than the normaly slow pace of summer in the Keys. As the final count down begins the most common goodbye heard is ..."See ya on the other side".

The excitement of the storm itself, the raw power of nature.

Then the commraderie of cleanup begins. Sure, it is a nightmare for some, not just the hard work and financial pain, but we see flashes of the Keys of old. Helping out your nieghbors or people you have never met before.

On the other hand if it is a Cat 5...well I think all of the romantic shine I just put on the situation will totally vanish only to be replaced by pain.

Let's hope none of us experience The Big One.

Scott

But if it is a Category 5 fishie? (Those are rare though)

[margiek]

Well as carzy as it sounds I am excited to see it coming. I guess I am so use to running by now unitl when it does not happen I feel as if my summer was filled with no drama or it was incomplete.

You must mean the 2009 NHEM season. TC occur year 'round and the SHEM 2009 season is almost over.

[Patrick99]

I'm excited. But really, I just want to see some severe weather, regardless of origin. Hurricane season is when I'm most likely to see that in S. FL. This current weather is really boring me. Dry, windy, warm, day after day after freaking day. Enough already - I hate April-early May; it's the most boring weather of the year. Let's get the storms going.

[Stormcenter]

Same feeling (not as active as last season) here in reference to the upcoming season.

There's just not much to talk about yet and I for one have been paying more attention to the news and our economy than trying to figure out what kind of season we're going to have. Just wait until we have our first real invest by late May/June and this place will pick back up again. I had a "feeling" last season would be a doozy and it sure was for these parts and I just don't have that same feeling this year...which means nothing really .