Accuweather 2009 Forecast

[Stormcenter]

I think "predictions" in general should be used for entertainment purposes only.
We won't know until if and when they form. Even then we still may not have a clue.

Here are some thoughts from Eric Berger's blog (Houston Chronicle) on Joe's forecast:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... _ma_1.html

In case you're wondering what I think: I think pre-season hurricane predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only.

I agree with that last sentence from Eric Berger.

[MGC]

Joe thinks 3 hurricanes will landfall in the USA and one as a major, a little worst than last year.....MGC

[ROCK]

dont you love JB hammering the EC every year.... One year he is going to be right.

WXMN57- 40's 50's as I recall were not good for the GOM as a whole....

[HouTXmetro]

I agree, every year JB claims the East Coast will be targeted by a storm.

[wxman57]

dont you love JB hammering the EC every year.... One year he is going to be right.

WXMN57- 40's 50's as I recall were not good for the GOM as a whole....

I think many people aren't really hearing what Joe's saying. I haven't heard him say that the East Coast would definitely be hit in a specific year. He's talking about pattern identification. The pattern that we're in now is similar to the pattern (cool PDO/warm AMO) which existed in the 1940s-1960s. During that time, the East Coast (Florida, in particular) was hit repeatedly by strong hurricanes. Since we're in the same SST pattern, one might conclude that we should see an increase in East Coast landfalls in the coming years. That's all he's saying, and I completely agree. Given the cool PDO phase and warm AMO phase, the East Coast had better be prepared for some significant impacts in the coming years.

There was an increase in GoM majors in this same period, but the correlation is not nearly as strong as for increasing East Coast activity.

By the way, the latest ENSO forecast is for a weak El Nino by September, as seen here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTMon.gif

[Downdraft]

Here's an example I give of why the numbers game is so meaningless when it concerns tropical activity. The first named storm of 1992 wasn't named until August 17th. It became a hurricane on August 22nd. 1992 was a slow season but after Andrew must people couldn't tell you the B storm's name. Number guessing is amusement but in the long run it only takes one storm at the right place at the right time and it's game over folks!

[KWT]

Yep Downdaft but its also true the more storms you have the greater the chance of one of those hitting the US, possibly with real force. Of course even in slow seasons you can get big storms, Alicia in 83, Andrew in 92, Anita in 77 (though with that one it luckily hit somewhere sparsly populated) etc.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

the past 10 years 1998-2008 have been a very rough
decade for the Gulf Coast: Georges 1998, A couple in 2002,
2004 Ivan/Charley, 2005 Katrina Rita Wilma, 2008 Gustav Fay Ike

[HURRICANELONNY]

I agree with only one thing Accuweather said. That was #3 on the list. Cooler SST. Don't understand the thinking of El Nino occuring that quick. Most models have neutral conditions through 2009. I take early predictions. Like a grain of salt. It can only hurt a forecaster. Conditions change to quickly.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is a friggin Joke IMO..They sound so confident when they are more than likely wrong..

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... HEAIR31809

[HURRICANELONNY]

WON'T EVEN WATCH THE VIDEO. THEY SHOULD KNOW BY NOW. EARLY FORECASTS DON'T VERIFY. IT'S A CRAP SHOOT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Imagine how many new board members would join from the Northeast if we had a 1938 or 1944 type hurricane.


Bob and Gloria were a lonng time ago.

[wxman57]

WON'T EVEN WATCH THE VIDEO. THEY SHOULD KNOW BY NOW. EARLY FORECASTS DON'T VERIFY. IT'S A CRAP SHOOT.

I think you need to watch all 3 video segments. I did, and there's no specific forecast of a particular area being hit THIS YEAR. It's all about pattern recognition and climatology. All Joe is saying is that the pattern of SSTs across the East Pacific and Atlantic have become very similar to that of the 1940s-1960s. During that period, the area from Florida up through New England was hit repeatedly by big hurricanes. I certainly agree with what Joe is saying with respect to that, and I do agree that there may be an increasing risk of a major impact along the East Coast in the coming years as this pattern continues. That's all Joe's been saying for the last few years. I've been saying the same thing. We just can't tell exactly what will happen each season, we can only use climatology to identify trends.

I made a web page in 2003 about the phase changes in the Atlantic/Pacific. In it, I talked about the increased odds of Florida being hit by several major hurricanes between 2004-2010, and for damage like we've never seen before. I only talked about impacts in Florida on the web page, but the same patterns we saw developing in 2003 also have resulted in increased hits north of Florida up the East Coast, just as Joe is saying:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

[KWT]

When you think about it we've had some close shaves in the east coast over the last 4 years, Alex in 04 came very close to making a direct landfall, same with Opheila, Ernesto only stayed weak thanks to land and the same goes for Hanna as well.

Eventually the east coast is going to have another season at the very least like 1999 given the last major hit was Floyd, even though Isabel and alex came close to that.

[JPmia]

WON'T EVEN WATCH THE VIDEO. THEY SHOULD KNOW BY NOW. EARLY FORECASTS DON'T VERIFY. IT'S A CRAP SHOOT.

I think you need to watch all 3 video segments. I did, and there's no specific forecast of a particular area being hit THIS YEAR. It's all about pattern recognition and climatology. All Joe is saying is that the pattern of SSTs across the East Pacific and Atlantic have become very similar to that of the 1940s-1960s. During that period, the area from Florida up through New England was hit repeatedly by big hurricanes. I certainly agree with what Joe is saying with respect to that, and I do agree that there may be an increasing risk of a major impact along the East Coast in the coming years as this pattern continues. That's all Joe's been saying for the last few years. I've been saying the same thing. We just can't tell exactly what will happen each season, we can only use climatology to identify trends.

I made a web page in 2003 about the phase changes in the Atlantic/Pacific. In it, I talked about the increased odds of Florida being hit by several major hurricanes between 2004-2010, and for damage like we've never seen before. I only talked about impacts in Florida on the web page, but the same patterns we saw developing in 2003 also have resulted in increased hits north of Florida up the East Coast, just as Joe is saying:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

I remember when you posted that web page and thought nah...i will see it when i believe it. Well, after 6 years and two more to go it looks like that page's analysis was right on track. Goood job! Don't you deserve a Storm2k award for that? lol

[Category 5]

13/8/2, with a lot of activity in the NE.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather ... &year=2009

Basically they recycled the last 100 forecasts.

Of course, JB will be gloating the day his dream comes true.

[Ed Mahmoud]

13/8/2, with a lot of activity in the NE.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather ... &year=2009

Basically they recycled the last 100 forecasts.

Of course, JB will be gloating the day his dream comes true.

JB's "Perfect Storm" is a Big'Un that comes up just West of Delaware Bay and drives a massive surge into Philadelphia and vicinity.


Maybe because he lives in Pennsylvania. He says it is a lot more likely than the TWC "ICHT" scenario of a Cat 3 or 4 coming at NYC from the Southeast and funneling surge between New Jersey and Long Island over Manhattan.


All that saltwater flooding in the subways would knock NYC's transit infrastructure for a loop for months...


ETA


People rag on JB, but he was pretty good on Erin and Edouard, the last two storms of local interest to me. Oh, and Humberto, as well.

[KWT]

I think why its JB's perfect storm set-up is no one would be suspecting the surge inland, whilst we have previous hurricanes that have hit close or in the New York region, so at least there is a comprasion to be drawn upon...though that didnt stop people ignoring Katrina either despite having numerous close shaves in the previous few decades.

[Category 5]

I think JB is just overly obcessed with one day being able to say

"I PREDICTED THE PERFECT STORM BEFORE ANYONE ELSE!"

Not bashing, just an observation.

[tolakram]

I watched all 3 videos. JB even joked about the responses he'll probably get. I'm no JB fan but I thought his discussion was very good, reasonable, and he made no attempt to gloss over when he had been wrong in the past.

His point, which I agree with, is that if something happened before it can happen again except this time there are a LOT more people in the way. As an example he went on to describe what might happen if the Philly area were hit, as they have been before. He also ranted about how people would probably try to connect it to global warming.

I think it's safe to say that at some point in the future a hurricane will hit the east coast and it will cause massive damage. People should not be shocked and they should not have a false sense of security.