ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Derek Ortt]

finally I could mention something in the nwhhc outlook for the atlantic!

[crownweather]

One thing to note about the track models is that they tend to curve EATL storms too quickly, especially the BAM models. Personally, I'm leaning towards the Euro model from 00Z and going with a W-WNW track for the next several days.

[cycloneye]

For the newbies and for some who may not remember,the GFDL and HWRF models will release their first model plots GFDL around 1:30 PM EDT and HWRF around 1:45 PM EDT.

[srainhoutx]

I'm a bit more interested in the wave to follow 99L, but that will be another Topic.

[Emmett_Brown]

Anyone see any indication of an LLC yet? Tough to tell on the pics, but to me still looks mostly like and MLC (but well defined).

I am no pro, but my gut tells me that this may take 48 hours before it has a chance at TD.

[CrazyC83]

The obs from Cape Verde might help us - those might be able to pick out a LLC.

[Emmett_Brown]

What does shear look like out ahead of 99L over the next 12-24 hours?

Per GFS forecast, some NNW shear, but lessening with time:

[cycloneye]

Cape Verde islands observations.Winds from the north at 8 mph with a 1011 mb pressure.

Code: Select all

at  Aug 09, 2009 - 09:00 AM EDTAug 09, 2009 - 08:00 AM CDTAug 09, 2009 - 07:00 AM MDTAug 09, 2009 - 06:00 AM PDTAug 09, 2009 - 05:00 AM ADTAug 09, 2009 - 04:00 AM HDT
2009.08.09 1300 UTC 
Wind  from the N (360 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT) (direction variable) 
Visibility  greater than 7 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  partly cloudy 
Temperature  86 F (30 C) 
Dew Point  69 F (21 C) 
Relative Humidity  58% 
Pressure (altimeter)  29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa) 
ob  GVAC 091300Z 36007KT 300V040 9999 SCT015 30/21 Q1011 NOSIG 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 


I remember there was a research plane at CV islands in past years.Is that program working or not?

[wxman57]

Obs put the closed low at 14.5N/21.4W. Convection seems to have diminished a bit in the last 6 hours. 12Z Models initialized the low at 12.5N/20.6W, but that's clearly the wrong location based on surface obs. It's quite a bit farther north than that. See the image below with my low position and NHC model initialization points:

[Emmett_Brown]

On the other thread, Ed found a city called Praia near the southeastern most portion of the Cape Verde islands. Currently, this station is reporting a SW wind at 6 mph, which says to me, no LLC yet:

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/08589.html

[wxman57]

Here's a model plot of the BAMs. Note that I think the initial position is about 2 deg too far south. Low appears to be near 14.5N based on surface obs across southern CV islands. Note, too, that LGEM is an intensity model that's using the BAMM as its track. Thus no BAMM showing up on the plot (it's covered by LGEM's red plot).

[gatorcane]

I looked at the 06Z GFS run this morning. It takes this area generall WNW then NW killing it off somewhere in the Central Atlantic.

But then there is some monster wave that rolls off Africa in a couple of days that could be the real player to watch as far as landfall potential down the road. I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw this (also notice another Cape Verde system gearing up off Africa):

Granted we are still in the long-range and things will change:

[HURAKAN]

We have been quiet but remember that we're in August.

[cycloneye]

But then there is some monster wave that rolls off Africa in a couple of days

That one is in Nigeria now and is the one to watch as it will emerge on a lower latitud.But I wont get ahead on this as its for a new thread at TT.

[Emmett_Brown]

No LLC on QuickSCAT yet:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

[wxman57]

No LLC on QuickSCAT yet:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

Look at 13.5N/21W on that QS. Pretty tight circulation indicated beneath the convection. Thats close to where I have it plotted on the image above.

[Blown Away]

No LLC on QuickSCAT yet:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

Look at 13.5N/21W on that QS. Pretty tight circulation indicated beneath the convection. Thats close to where I have it plotted on the image above.

Ahhhh, nice to be back in the active systems forum!!! So Wxman, 99L will cross 20N near what longitude?

[gatorcane]

Looking at the 00Z ECMWF Geopotential 500 hPa, looks like it parks an H5 ridge NW of invest 99L through 120 hours. Would that not keep invest 99L on a general westward path for the next several days?

Looking beyond that flow from ECMWF is very zonal across the Central Atlantic with no major troughs. Looks to me like 99L could head west for several days if not longer before potentially hitting some kind of weakness in the ridge:

Here we are a few days from now showing the H5 ridge NW of 99L:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9080900!!/

[wxman57]

Ahhhh, nice to be back in the active systems forum!!! So Wxman, 99L will cross 20N near what longitude?

Probably around 50W, maybe even east of there a bit. Should be a fish storm if it develops.

[Emmett_Brown]

No LLC on QuickSCAT yet:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

Look at 13.5N/21W on that QS. Pretty tight circulation indicated beneath the convection. Thats close to where I have it plotted on the image above.

I was looking at that area, and to my eyes, it looks like it is elongated E to W along 13.5 for a few hundred miles; but I dont know a lot about how accurate QSCAT is.