ATL : INVEST 96L

[vbhoutex]

have to be honest, this looks like a storm

It sure does and it looks tropical to me or am I missing something?

[wxman57]

Ida know, maybe NHC will just let it accelerate out to sea tonight/tomorrow and not name it?

Last model run had the name Invest 96L. If they were going to name it, the model run would have a different header. And only a medium chance of development next 48 hrs. All point to no name today. Therefore, I expect it to be named STS Ida in a few minutes. I think Bill Read has 9 named storms in the office pool for 2009.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm thinking it may be named at 0300 UTC, or 10 p.m. EST

[wxman57]

It should be peaking in intensity over the next 12-18 hours. After then, it's accelerating out to sea over cooler water. So if the NHC is going to name it, they better get with it soon.

Oh, and note the cold front extending south from the low to just east of the Caribbean. Unusually strong front for this time of year that far south.

[cycloneye]

Pass from this morning but you can see a well rounded circulation with pretty strong winds.

[JonathanBelles]

WOW!!! I wasnt even looking at this. That QS caught my eye. Needs a name! Whats the temperature profile on that?

[cycloneye]

Code Red

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL GALE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN

[Cookie]

second system to affect the uk this season?

[HURAKAN]

01/2345 UTC 33.1N 56.7W ST3.0 96L -- Atlantic

45 knots says Dvorak

[RL3AO]

01/2345 UTC 33.1N 56.7W ST3.0 96L -- Atlantic

45 knots says Dvorak

Actually its Herbert-Poteat technique, not Dvorak.

[fogbreath]

Well, I'm glad the prelim tracks are all away from the East Coast - I'm going to be out by NC next weekend and that would not be a fun scenario to deal with

[cycloneye]

This Q pass was made at 6:14 PM EST and shows IMO a storm with a very big circulation and strong winds reflected in those purple and black barbs.

[ozonepete]

Doesn't look very sub-tropical yet, other than that it's occasionally getting some thunderstorms over the center. Really lopsided and still attached to that front.

[wxman57]

Front still extends south from the low to east of the Caribbean. Convection not increasing. Cloud tops warming a bit. Making the northerly turn now, heading over cooler and cooler water as it accelerates northward. I think the NHC may just let this one head out to sea, as it can't separate from the front.

[ozonepete]

Front still extends south from the low to east of the Caribbean. Convection not increasing. Cloud tops warming a bit. Making the northerly turn now, heading over cooler and cooler water as it accelerates northward. I think the NHC may just let this one head out to sea, as it can't separate from the front.

I think you're right. Just doesn't look feasible.

[pepeavilenho]

I don't know what to say...



when is the next paper from NHC?

[cycloneye]

Front still extends south from the low to east of the Caribbean. Convection not increasing. Cloud tops warming a bit. Making the northerly turn now, heading over cooler and cooler water as it accelerates northward. I think the NHC may just let this one head out to sea, as it can't separate from the front.

I think you're right. Just doesn't look feasible.

Then why NHC changed the code from orange to red?

[pepeavilenho]

[img]http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/4305/5dvryf.gif
[/img]

[CrazyC83]

I don't see any frontal boundary there...looks like Tropical Storm Ida to me...

[ozonepete]

Front still extends south from the low to east of the Caribbean. Convection not increasing. Cloud tops warming a bit. Making the northerly turn now, heading over cooler and cooler water as it accelerates northward. I think the NHC may just let this one head out to sea, as it can't separate from the front.

I think you're right. Just doesn't look feasible.

Then why NHC changed the code from orange to red?

Because it had possibilities (and I thought it did too) but it hasn't capitalized on those possibilities in the last 6 hours and it's just about run out of time, as wxman57 said. It needed to wrap convection all the way around the center and it hasn't done it. And now it's clearly moving north over even cooler water, so there's not enough heat energy from the ocean to produce thunderstorms over the center.