SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM GELANE (16S)

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 098
WTIO30 FMEE 161239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/12/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/16 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6S / 60.2E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 075 NO: 075
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 850 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/17 00 UTC: 13.3S/60.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2010/02/17 12 UTC: 14.1S/60.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2010/02/18 00 UTC: 14.5S/60.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/02/18 12 UTC: 15.0S/60.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/02/19 00 UTC: 15.4S/60.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/02/19 12 UTC: 15.9S/60.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0+
SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED GELANE AT 0900Z BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES.
NOAA 19 MICROWAVE PASS AT 0916Z DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CENTER WITH
FORMATION OF AN OEIL FEATURE ON 85 GHZ. OVER THE LAST SATELLITE
PICTURES,
CURVED BAND STRUCTURE SEEMS TO EVOLVE TOWARDS CDO PATTERN WITH
BULDING
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
SYSTEM HAS MOVED SOUTHWARDS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AND SLOWED DOWN.
IT SHOUD CONTINU ON ITS SLOW SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHSOUTHEASTERLY MOTION
FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED TO THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE IS BALANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH.
BEYOND, AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW STRONG DISAGREEMENT AS THEY SPLIT
INTO
2 ENSEMBLES OF TRACKS. GFDN, UKMO AND AVNO HAVE THE MOST EASTERLY
SCENRIO
WITH SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACKS ALONG THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE
OTHER
HAND, ECMWF, ALADIN-REUNION, AND ARPEGE SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS
THE
SOUTHWES
T. PRESENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS
CLOSE TO THE TRACKS FOLLOWED BY THE EUROPEAN MODELS. THEREFORE,
THERE IS
A LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
2
TO 3 DAYS. BEYOND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS HOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN
MADAGASCAR AND LA REUNION AND ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT FORCAST TRACK
SHOULD INDUCE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
FORECASTS BEYOND TAU 72H (CAUTION, ERROR MAY BE LARGE):
096H: 2010/02/20 12 UTC: 17.0S/60E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 2010/02/21 12 UTC: 18.6S/58.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 60.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 60.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.8S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.6S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.2S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.8S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.7S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.4S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.4S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 60.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT ARE STARTING TO WRAP INTO
THE SYSTEM CENTER. CURRENT POSITIONING CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, FMEE AND KNES OF
45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NEAR A RIDGE
AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHILE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 16S HAS TRACKED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 48, THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND ENABLE
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, TAKE OVER AS THE
STEERING INFLUENCE AND GUIDE THE SYSTEM MORE SOUTHWESTWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
START TO WANE. NEVERTHELESS, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
INTO THE EXTENDED TAU'S DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THE MODEL AIDS ARE STILL SPREAD AT THIS
TIME AS THE MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH TO STRENGTHEN THE BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS APPEAR TO DEVELOP A
STRONG STEERING RIDGE WHILE THE GFS AND UKMO MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER
ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A STRONGER RIDGE SCENARIO
AND SUBSQUENTLY LEANS ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND
171500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 FEB 2010 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 13:06:00 S Lon : 60:35:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 987.4mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Center Temp : -66.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 953
WTIO30 FMEE 161836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/12/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/16 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9S / 60.5E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 110 NO: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/17 06 UTC: 13.8S/60.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2010/02/17 18 UTC: 14.4S/60.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/02/18 06 UTC: 14.9S/60.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/02/18 18 UTC: 15.4S/61.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/02/19 06 UTC: 16.1S/61.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/02/19 18 UTC: 16.9S/61.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
WINDSAT 37GHZ AT 16/1355Z SHOWS AN ALMOST CLOSED LOW LEVEL EYE AND
THE
N-16 16/1417Z 85GHZ SWATH THAT THIS FEATURE IS ALSO CONSOLIDATED
ALSO ON
UPPER LEVEL.
GELANE SHOUD KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS
FOR
THE NEXT 72 HEURES AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS PROGRESSIVELY
BALANCED
BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW A LARGE SPREAD OF TRACKS AND VARIATIONS
ABOUT
CHRONOLOGY.
GFDN IS NOW THE ONLY RECENT AVAILABLE NWP MODEL THAT FORECASTS A
SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACKS ALONG THE WHOLE PERIOD.
ON THE OTHER HAND, ECMWF, ALADIN-REUNION, ARPEGE AND NOW JOINED BY
THE
AMERICAN NWP NOGAPS, ALL SUGGEST A SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK.
PRESENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND
IS
CLOSE TO THE TRACKS FOLLOWED BY THIS MODELS. THEREFORE, THERE IS A
LOWER
THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
2
TO 3 DAYS. BEYOND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN
MADAGASCAR AND LA REUNION AND ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK
SHOULD INDUCE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
FORECASTS BEYOND TAU 72H (CAUTION, ERROR MAY BE LARGE):
096H: 2010/02/20 18 UTC: 18.4S/60.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 2010/02/21 18 UTC: 19.6S/59.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.4S 60.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 60.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.1S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.7S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.5S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.2S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.5S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.4S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.9S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 60.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), AND A 162143Z AMSRE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF TC 16S IS PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND A POINT SOURCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. CURRENTLY, TC GELANE IS TRACKING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND BY TAU 48,
SHOULD BEGIN TO BE STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, TC
16S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR MODEL, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
EASTWARD. THIS IS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 860
WTIO30 FMEE 170119 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/12/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/17 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 60.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 150 NO: 110
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/17 12 UTC: 13.6S/60.8E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/02/18 00 UTC: 14.1S/61.1E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/02/18 12 UTC: 14.7S/61.2E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/02/19 00 UTC: 15.5S/61.2E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/02/19 12 UTC: 16.1S/61.2E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/02/20 00 UTC: 16.8S/61.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
RECENT MICROWAVES SWATHS - TRMM 16/1938Z AND AQUA 16/2143Z SHOWS NOW
A
UPPER-LEVEL EYE (85GHZ) TOTALLY CLOSED.
AQUA 16/2143Z SHOWS A TILD BETWEEN UPPER AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS
PROBABLY
LINKED TO A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT.
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAKENING AND A POLWARD ONE IS
BUILDING CLOSED TO A WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET (PROBABLY THE CAUSE OF
THE
ACTUAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT)
WINDSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE TAU 72
HOURS
.
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN RATHER FAVOURABLE AND THEN
DEGRADE
PROGRESSIVELY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS COMING FROM THE WEST.
GELANE ST EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS
THEN
SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN RECURVING SOUTHWESTWARDS
UNDERGOING THE MI-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING INFLUENCE.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW A LARGE SPREAD OF TRACKS AND VARIATIONS
ABOUT
CHRONOLOGY.
GFDN IS NOW THE ONLY RECENT AVAILABLE NWP MODEL THAT FORECASTS A
SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACKS ALONG THE WHOLE PERIOD.
ON THE OTHER HAND, ECMWF, ALADIN-REUNION, ARPEGE AND NOW JOINED BY
THE
AMERICAN NWP NOGAPS, ALL SUGGEST A SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK.
PRESENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND
IS
CLOSE TO THE TRACKS FOLLOWED BY THIS MODELS.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOWER THAN USUAL.
PREVISIONS AU DELA DE 72H D'ECHEANCE :
096H: 2010/02/21 00 UTC: 18.2S/60.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 2010/02/22 00 UTC: 19.6S/58.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive system

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 830
WTIO30 FMEE 170643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/12/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/17 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 61.3E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 280 SO: 150 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/17 18 UTC: 14.0S/61.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2010/02/18 06 UTC: 14.7S/61.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2010/02/18 18 UTC: 15.4S/61.8E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2010/02/19 06 UTC: 15.9S/61.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2010/02/19 18 UTC: 16.6S/61.5E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2010/02/20 06 UTC: 17.5S/61.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0-
AN EYE IS NOW VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAKENING AND A POLEWARD ONE IS
BUILDING CLOSED TO A WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET.
WINDSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE TAU 72
HOURS
.
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN RATHER FAVOURABLE AND THEN
DEGRADE
PROGRESSIVELY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS COMING FROM THE WEST.
GELANE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS
THEN
SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN RECURVING SOUTHWESTWARDS
UNDERGOING THE MI-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING INFLUENCE.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW YET VARIATIONS ABOUT CHRONOLOGY, BUT THEY
ALL
SUGGEST A SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.
PRESENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND
IS
CLOSE TO THE TRACKS FOLLOWED BY THIS MODELS.
PREVISIONS AU DELA DE 72H D'ECHEANCE :
096H: 2010/02/21 06 UTC: 18.9S/60.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
120H: 2010/02/22 06 UTC: 20.2S/58.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Very well-organized

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 626
WTIO30 FMEE 171246
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/12/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/17 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 61.9E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 250 SO: 130 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/18 00 UTC: 14.7S/62.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/02/18 12 UTC: 15.6S/62.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2010/02/19 00 UTC: 16.3S/62.5E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2010/02/19 12 UTC: 17.0S/62.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2010/02/20 00 UTC: 17.7S/62.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2010/02/20 12 UTC: 18.5S/62.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0-; CI=4.5+
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SINCE A FEW HOURS AND THE EYE IS NO MORE
VISIBLE
ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM, MORE
SENSITIVE TO ENVIRONMENT. THIS TEMPORALY WEAKENING SHOULD BE
EXPLAINED BY
A LESS EFFICIENT OUTFLOW AND AN ENERGETIC DEFICIT DUE TO THE SLOW
MOTION
OF THE SYSTE
M.
WINDSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE TAU 60
HOURS
. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS NIGHT.
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN RATHER FAVOURABLE WITHIN THIS
PERIODE
(ALSO VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT) AND THEN DEGRADE PROGRESSIVELY
AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS COMING FROM THE WEST.
GELANE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS THEN
SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN BEYONG RECURVING
SOUTHWESTWARDS
UNDERGOING THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING INFLUENCE.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW YET VARIATIONS BUT THEY ALL SUGGEST A
SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.
PRESENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND
IS
CLOSE TO THE TRACKS FOLLOWED BY THIS MODELS.
PREVISIONS AU DELA DE 72H D'ECHEANCE :
096H: 2010/02/21 12 UTC: 20.0S/60.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM.
120H: 2010/02/22 12 UTC: 21.0S/59.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.=

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.8S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.7S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.6S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.5S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.1S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.7S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 61.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SIX HOURS AGO, TC GELANE DEVELOPED A 15-NM
VISIBLE EYE THAT YIELDED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
FMEE. HOWEVER, ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE HAS SINCE
ERODED. SUBSEQUENTLY, RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN TO THE
65- TO 77-KNOT RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS IS BASED IN PART ON A 170957Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
REVEALS A TIGHTLY WOUND, THOUGH VERY SMALL, CYCLONE WITH A PINHOLE
MICROWAVE EYE. IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
THOUGH IT ALSO ILLUSTRATES THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW-
ENHANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM'S GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AS IT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. THEREFORE,
TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLIGHTLY EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE GIVING WAY
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. DUE TO
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, TC GELANE WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO MODEL SOLUTION,
WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM DUE EASTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS. THIS REMAINS AN
UNLIKELY SCENARIO DUE TO THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 589
WTIO30 FMEE 171848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/12/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/17 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5S / 62.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 971 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 250 SO: 130 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/18 06 UTC: 15.1S/62.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/02/18 18 UTC: 15.8S/62.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/02/19 06 UTC: 16.6S/62.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/02/19 18 UTC: 17.3S/62.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/02/20 06 UTC: 18.0S/62.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/02/20 18 UTC: 19.2S/61.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0; CI=4.0+
SATELLITE DATA SHOW AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN WITH DT AT 4.5 (CENTER
EMBEDDED IN LG). PT AT 4.0 AND MET AT 4.0. FT BASED ON PT.
LATEST MW IMAGERY STILL SHOW AN EYE ON 85 GHZ BUT CONVECTIVE
ORGANISATION
WITHIN THE CORE IS LESS SYMETRICAL AND GENERALLY LESS DEFINED THAN
IT
WAS THIS MORNING. 37 GHZ IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE
NORTHERN
EYEWALL.
ON THIS BASIS AND CONSIDERING THAT GELANE IS A SMALL SYSTEM, SYSTEM
IS
DOWGRADED TO THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
WV ILAGERY SUGGEST THAT OUTFLOW IS NOW RESTRICTED WITHIN THE NORTHERN
PART WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR.
AS WINDSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE TAU
36
HOURS, POLEWARDS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS GOOD, ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD
THEREFORE REMAIN RATHER FAVOURABLE WITHIN THIS PERIODE (ALSO VERY
HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT). IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT GELANE REGAINS SOME
STRENGHH
, AS SUGGEST
ED IN THE PRESENT FORECAST. HOWEVER INTENSIFICATION RATE HAS BEEN
LOWERED
COMPARE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
BEYOND, ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEGRADE PROGRESSIVELY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH
IS COMING FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
GELANE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS THEN
SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN BEYONG RECURVING
SOUTHWESTWARDS
UNDERGOING THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING INFLUENCE.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW YET VARIATIONS BUT THEY ALL SUGGEST A
SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.
PREVISIONS AU DELA DE 72H D'ECHEANCE :
096H: 2010/02/21 18 UTC: 20.4S/60.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 2010/02/22 18 UTC: 21.3S/59.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking great on the microwave