T wave approaching the Windward Islands

[Gustywind]

Pretty wind here in Guadeloupe at Saint-François, a locality at the extreme east of the butterfly island (Guadeloupe). Looking at the radar, a strong squall line is bringing nice gusts! Showers are not too strong but the wind is
Let's see what will happen with this twave as it has begun to approach the EC islands. Be safe and dry all my carib friends .

[rockyman]

My review of the 12z models:

NOGAPS--Keeps the system weak, sends it WNW into Honduras
CMC--Strengthens, then weakens the system, aiming for the Yucatan Channel
GFS--Splits the system, bringing some energy into Central America, and some into Cuba
Euro--Strengthens the system somewhat, and sends it into the Bay of Campeche

Rough Drawing (NOT OFFICIAL):

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[rockyman]

From the models, I see a general trend that the mega-high that's been shunting everything into Central America and the Bay of Campeche could be weakening by the end of the next week, possibly allowing this system to gain some latitude.

[ROCK]

models are sniffing something out of this as it moves further into the carib.....not totally sold yet as I am....does have some turning to it though....

[ConvergenceZone]

Guess we'll just have to see what this wave looks like tomorrow. In the meantime, I guess we should enjoy the lull. Ya never know how long it's going to last. Perhaps oinly 1 week, or maybe we will be in a lull for another 4 weeks, really hard to tell.

[Nimbus]

The waves have been developing in the western Caribbean this year and it does seem as though the trend will be for them to track a little further north as the steering ridge weakens. Of course it would be fine with me if was quiet the rest of July.