WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTHU (1003/04W)

[oaba09]

well at least the winds aren't that strong(yet)....as for the rain, we actually welcome it...the water in our dams are still below normal level....

[Typhoon10]

Whats the chance of this developing and the likely track?

[Chacor]

Probably would not be too dissimilar to Conson's. The steering shouldn't have changed that much in the two days since Conson passed.

[Chacor]

Quite curious as to why PAGASA hasn't called this a TD and named it yet.

[HURAKAN]

18/0232 UTC 15.3N 122.2E T2.0/2.0 98W -- West Pacific

30 knots

[Chacor]

Stronger than it appears?

[oaba09]

we're having a cloudy weather at the moment....

[oaba09]

Quite curious as to why PAGASA hasn't called this a TD and named it yet.

They still consider it as a low pressure area(LPA) based on their website...

From JTWC



WTPN21 PGTW 180330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 122.6E TO 15.2N 118.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 122.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
122.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARD THE COAST OF LUZON. A RECENT AMSU
CROSS-SECTION DEPICTS A 1C WARM ANOMALY EVIDENT IN THE MID-
LEVELS. A 172238Z TRMM 85H IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE PROXIMITY TO LAND MAY HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND POSITION OVER WATER MAY
ALLOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190330Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 15.5N 122.2E POOR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 15.8N 118.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

From NOAA Satellite Analysis Branch Satellite Services Division:

TXPN23 KNES 180349
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 18/0232Z

C. 15.3N

D. 122.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WITH SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED AND HAS FORMED
TIGHT BANDING AROUND LLCC. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL IN RECENT TRMM AND AMSU
PASSES. BANDING WRAPS 8 TENTHS ON LOG-10 SPIRAL FOR UNREALISTICALLY
HIGH DT=3.5. HOWEVER..THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AS SATELLITE TRENDS OFTEN PRECEDE CORRESPONDING PRESSURE/WIND
TENDENCIES. MET=2.0 AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS DURING FIRST 24
HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

17/2238Z 15.1N 122.3E TMI


...RUMINSKI

[Chacor]

SAB ADT had a raw-T number of 3.7 at 0332 UTC, which would correspond to 59 knots!

[phwxenthusiast]

ahh... a few forecast models hinted at this development... will head toward HK..

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[theavocado]

Looks like a TD to me...



Where's PAGASA? You would think they would have more observations than the rest of us...

[oaba09]

Looks like a TD to me...



Where's PAGASA? You would think they would have more observations than the rest of us...

They usually give 6 hour updates....I'm expecting them to issue an advisory at 5 pm later(our local time)

[oaba09]

Latest from JMA....currently at 30 knots(55 kph)



<Analyses at 18/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N15°10'(15.2°)
E121°40'(121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E118°25'(118.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Chacor]

Actually, 35 kt is their 24-hour forecast point. It's still a 30-kt TD. If it was up to 35 they would name it.

WTPQ21 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 15.2N 121.7E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 15.6N 118.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[oaba09]

Actually, 35 kt is their 24-hour forecast point. It's still a 30-kt TD. If it was up to 35 they would name it.

WTPQ21 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 15.2N 121.7E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 15.6N 118.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

thanks for the heads up...I missed that one

[oaba09]

It's starting to rain in my area....

[P.K.]

Latest from PAGASA although rather old:

Weather
Issued at: 5:00 a.m., 18 July 2010
(click here to download 5 a.m. forecast-Adobe PDF format)
Synopsis : AT 2:00 a.m. today, an Active Low Pressure Area (ALPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 80 km East of Central Luzon (15.8°N, 122.3°E). Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affecting Mindanao