Disturbed area in ITCZ

[Gustywind]

[Ivanhater]

Very impressed with the structure of this wave as well...the last one that came off like this is now the one we are watching around the Islands..

Nice vort as well

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Looks interesting tonight. Lets see if it holds...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 24W-27W.


$$
FORMOSA

[cycloneye]

Continue the discussions about this wave here.

[Gustywind]

Thanks Luis, good job as usual.

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM duscussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING PAST THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N24W
TO 8N26W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR
LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY
SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

[Category 5]

Choo choo, all aboard the Cape Verde express. When you go by what we've seen so far, we should see some long trackers this year.

[Tropics Guy]

Looking at the latest satellite pics there seems to be a hint of circulation in the ball of convection though its still at a low latitude. IMO if it pulls itself up from the ITCZ it may have a chance at development as SAL is not a problem in the immediate area , ocean temps are warm enough and there is not much shear over the area. Should be a code yellow at least IMO.................

TG

[KWT]

If the ball of convection were to try and lift out then yeah it'll have half a chance of development, either way it'll have a shot in the W.Caribbean IMO and ECM hints at a decent wave moving through the Caribbean in about 6-8 days time.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon everyone,

I know the main focus is on the invest 97, but this wave has not lost much of the thunder storm activity since leaving the coast. We have seen some strong ones come off early this year, and as some say in here gone poof. So far not so wiht this one, this could very well be something to watch. We are nearing mid July which is when we should start seeing these waves hold together and move west.

[KWT]

The low pressure did totally poof, but the ITCZ is still flaring up quite well, so there is some decent energy down there. Needs watching in the Caribbean.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Afternoon everyone,

We are nearing mid July which is when we should start seeing these waves hold together and move west.

Sorry for the nitpick, but the middle of July was noon on July 16, so we are well into "mid-July", not "nearing" it.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Lol,

Cleaveland talk about wanting to be precise. KWT so your saying the original low did fall apart and the circular thunder storm complex is just the wave interacting with the ITCZ.

[Cyclone1]

So, I can't help but notice how low that convection is...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I agree with you on that it is a bit low riding about at 6 degrees. But should gain some lattitude, if not it will be toast.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Isn't the convection down at 6N 32W a separate system or is it part of this?

[KWT]

Yeah take a look at the curve of the shallow cloud way off to the north, that was the orginal low that came off Africa.

Now that blob is being very presistant, personally I'd code yellow it, because whilst it probably is just the ITCZ, it still requires watching...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

By no means am I a pro, but yes you are pretty much on as to where it is. If you use the satellite and check of the Lat/Lon you can get a good idea.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks KWT,

always follow your post and try to learn something new, funny thing was I was about to ask you that exact question, what was the counter clock wise flow north of the wave, Now I know.