I'm not trying to be a smart-ass Cycloneye....but did you mean entertainment instead of this?
entretainment
Wave WSW of CV Islands
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Re: Wave about to emerge Africa=Models hint at development
Let's see if they're consistent on the next runs but things are getting interesting.edit: less interesting now, but anyways let's see consistency.
Last edited by Macrocane on Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Brent
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Re: Wave about to emerge Africa=Models hint at development
Ivanhater wrote:nvm...that was the cmc
HAHA, I was about to say...
The idea does seem to be on the table though for at least some development.
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Blown Away
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Re: Wave about to emerge Africa=Models hint at development
Looks like these models are also showing weakness just past 60W.
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I suspect we maybe seeing our old friend convective feedbacmk occuring qwith the GFS/CMC, the ECM isn't really showing anything other then a weak wave off Africa around 144hrs, probably the same wave the others develop but slower.
GFS tries to develop the first wave but weakens as a new low takes over, when the GFS does this it tends to suggest that whilst the atmosphere is getting there things aren't quiter good enough to hold together the wave and so the GFS splits it up instead.
GFS tries to develop the first wave but weakens as a new low takes over, when the GFS does this it tends to suggest that whilst the atmosphere is getting there things aren't quiter good enough to hold together the wave and so the GFS splits it up instead.
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hurricaneCW
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Re: Wave about to emerge Africa=Models hint at development
I'd guess a 60% chance that it's going to poof, but nothing is certain.
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cycloneye
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Re:
Vortmax1 wrote:I'm not trying to be a smart-ass Cycloneye....but did you mean entertainment instead of this?
entretainment
I meant that word to signify the Canadian model that so far is the only model which has a hurricane. This model has been subject of jokes by some.
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Ivanhater
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Re: Wave about to emerge Africa=Models hint at development
18z GFS continues to show Colin and Danielle in just a weeks time
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Michael
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Re: Wave about to emerge Africa=Models hint at development
And Colin, Danielle, Earl, and soon to be Fiona all on the map...the lid is about to come off 
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Michael
The GFS takes this wave westwards as a high tracks westward with it and evetually reaches the Yucatan...
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TwisterFanatic
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Holy Crap!!!!
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You can see the wave we are watching just getting close to the EPAC, it takes the exact same track more or less as Dean in 07, but conditions aren't as good as it was aloft...for now!
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cycloneye
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Re: Wave about to emerge Africa=Models hint at development
I am reposting the image from the first post that updates every 15 minutes to mention that this system is big and may take a while to emerge completly the African Coast. Also there may be some monsoonic mix here that is slowing the foward movement,but once it detaches from it,it will move more fast and the big question, will it develop? If any pro met wants to chim in to discuss about the system, go ahead. 
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: Wave about to emerge Africa=Models hint at development
If GFS ops says it @ 384...then book it Dan-O
Ivan, I think you have coined the phrase of the season - "the lid is about to come off"
Ivan, I think you have coined the phrase of the season - "the lid is about to come off"
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Re: Wave about to emerge Africa=Models hint at development
It certainly appears that the wave to exit the coast of Africa within the next 24 hours has "the look", model support, and favorable environmental conditions down stream to eventually become the next player. Most guidance suggests ridging will be in place to the north to bring this system westbound for some time. It looks to be a long-tracker given the forecasted synoptic set-up... IMO this becomes Colin down the road...
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