ATL: OTTO - Models
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SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
cycloneye wrote:The Tropical Model Bams have not been updated since the first run at 06z.
Not sure why... We still have a best track...
AL, 97, 2010093012, , BEST, 0, 120N, 490W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010093018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 510W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
This was the last one
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/atlantic/model/?C=M;O=D
706
WHXX01 KWBC 300743
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0743 UTC THU SEP 30 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100930 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100930 0600 100930 1800 101001 0600 101001 1800
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/atlantic/model/?C=M;O=D
706
WHXX01 KWBC 300743
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0743 UTC THU SEP 30 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100930 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100930 0600 100930 1800 101001 0600 101001 1800
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
SouthFloridawx wrote:cycloneye wrote:The Tropical Model Bams have not been updated since the first run at 06z.
Not sure why... We still have a best track...
AL, 97, 2010093012, , BEST, 0, 120N, 490W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010093018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 510W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Maybe, they are waiting for more consolidation to then run the models again.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re:
CMC follows suite on the midwest cut-off low.
GFS shows the cut-off low weaker and further east.
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SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
If you run the loop, it's not as... confusing. Still a little, but showing it going out to sea...
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html
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gatorcane
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Huge trough waiting for 97L on the 12Z ECMWF. It keep showing a recurve well east of the U.S. Troughiness rules in 2010!
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0093000!!/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0093000!!/
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H240..takes off NE and part of the split of energy spins up over the SW carribean...
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif
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gatorcane
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Re:
Vortex wrote:H240..takes off NE and part of the split of energy spins up over the SW carribean...
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif
240 hours away. I will see it to believe it
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dwsqos2
Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
500 mb heights were greater than or equal to 588 dm over the Southeast for much of Kate's existence. How on earth the Euro reminds anyone of the synoptic pattern of late November 1985 is beyond me.
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:Huge trough waiting for 97L on the 12Z ECMWF. It keep showing a recurve well east of the U.S. Troughiness rules in 2010!
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0093000!!/
Yeah pretty obvious but its right now very far south, the system is down at 11N and is still heading westwards looking at the predict data and sat.imagery...thats probably south enough to mean its going to have to curve up through the islands...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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hurricaneCW
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:Huge trough waiting for 97L on the 12Z ECMWF. It keep showing a recurve well east of the U.S. Troughiness rules in 2010!
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0093000!!/
Troughiness is more or less a given now that we're going to be in October. That being said, there is a collage of systems in the around the Caribbean and just to the east of there, so it's very uncertain what will develop. The next few weeks are going to be a mess just like what we dealt with from Matthew/Nicole.
This invest and the other lows around it are more so going to be a topic of discussion next week. As far as the track, who knows at this point if anything will develop and where it will go. Also the ECMWF shows more of a strong cut off low then a regular trough, notice how slowing it's progressing eastward, that's something extra to keep in mind.
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